AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Monday, 7 September 2026
Edition of Tuesday, 7 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Mon 7 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Tuesday, 7 September 2027.

Science

Starship splashdown succeeded as Superheavy booster exploded

The Test also saw the experimental chopsticks system fail to catch either vehicle.

83% certain
lead market 83%next 17%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Jul

On Thursday 1 July 2027, SpaceX launched the fourteenth integrated Flight Test of its Starship system. The Superheavy booster detonated during the ascent phase. The Starship spacecraft subsequently achieved a splashdown in the ocean. Neither the booster nor the spacecraft was captured by the experimental chopsticks recovery apparatus.

The explosion of the booster left no intact hardware for the recovery system to engage. Nevertheless, the Starship vehicle continued its Flight profile and performed the planned ocean landing. The successful splashdown demonstrated that the spacecraft's re-entry and landing sequence functioned as intended.

Read the full report

Economics

NVIDIA topped corporate rankings

The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points and Zimbabwe's export ban cut global lithium supply by more than five kilotonnes.

92% certain
lead market 92%next 8%1 venuesettles Tue 29 Sept

Politics

Chris Pappas won New Hampshire Senate primary

Maura Sullivan secured the 1st district House nomination and Anthony DiLorenzo claimed the GOP gubernatorial slot.

78% certain
lead market 78%next 24%1 venuesettles Tue 8 Sept

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Brazil Presidential Election: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva53%Sun 4 Oct
  2. Fed Decision in September?: No change51%Wed 16 Sept
  3. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)68%Wed 30 Sept
  4. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: No50%Wed 4 Nov
  5. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen33%Fri 30 Apr
  6. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes62%Tue 3 Nov
  7. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro83%Sun 4 Oct
  8. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3087%Thu 1 Oct
  9. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  10. Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson80%Sun 13 Sept
  11. Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes71%Wed 9 Dec
  12. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes67%Tue 3 Nov
  13. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  14. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day91%Thu 31 Dec
  15. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0%42%Wed 9 Dec
  16. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party51%Tue 3 Nov
  17. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: No51%Tue 3 Nov
  18. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  19. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  20. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  21. Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  22. Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%Sun 13 Sept
  23. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)98%Wed 30 Sept
  24. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  25. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  26. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula59%Fri 2 Oct
  27. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  28. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  29. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes85%Wed 30 Sept
  30. Israel closes its airspace by September 30?: Yes81%Thu 1 Oct
  31. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No88%Sun 1 Nov
  32. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes66%Wed 16 Sept
  33. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  34. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  35. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  36. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No75%Fri 1 Jan
  37. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 5 kt on September 29, 2026?: Yes92%Tue 29 Sept
  38. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  39. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: Yes64%Fri 1 Jan
  40. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  41. Fed Decision in October?: No change68%Wed 28 Oct
  42. Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?: Yes99%Fri 16 Oct
  43. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Augusto Cury56%Sun 4 Oct
  44. Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  45. Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Liberals still in Riksdag after next election?: No76%Sat 12 Sept
  47. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  48. Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Pause–Pause–Pause51%Wed 16 Sept
  49. Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  50. Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  51. Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  52. Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?: No51%Wed 9 Dec
  53. Will Chris Pappas win the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Primary for Senate?: Yes92%Tue 8 Sept
  54. Largest Company end of September?: NVIDIA94%Wed 30 Sept
  55. Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  56. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?: No99%Sun 20 Sept
  57. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No95%Sat 31 Oct
  58. Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  59. Which price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: 65,00043%Thu 31 Dec
  60. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)79%Sun 4 Oct
  61. ECB Interest Rates: September 2026: 25 bps increase99%Thu 10 Sept
  62. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No87%Thu 31 Dec
  63. Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  64. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic60%Fri 1 Jan
  65. Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  66. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  67. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  68. Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?: Yes89%Sat 12 Sept
  69. Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?: No100%Thu 8 Oct
  70. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No57%Fri 1 Jan
  71. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes87%Mon 5 Oct
  72. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?: No95%Wed 16 Sept
  73. Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo: No93%Thu 31 Dec
  74. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  75. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo82%Sun 4 Oct
  76. Will Israel exist two years from now?: Yes99%Fri 18 Sept
  77. Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?: Yes62%Wed 9 Dec
  78. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)89%Sun 20 Sept
  79. Bank of Japan Decision in September?: 25 bps increase98%Fri 18 Sept
  80. Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  81. Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?: Yes65%Sun 20 Sept
  82. São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Tarcísio de Freitas97%Sun 4 Oct
  83. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes90%Fri 1 Jan
  84. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33936%Sun 20 Sept
  85. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%42%Sun 4 Oct
  86. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?: No97%Thu 31 Dec
  87. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  88. 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?: No53%Wed 16 Sept
  89. Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  90. Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  91. Fed Decision in December?: No change47%Wed 9 Dec
  92. Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  93. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes98%Sun 4 Oct
  94. Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026: Gold62%Fri 1 Jan
  95. Will August 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes92%Fri 11 Sept
  96. Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  97. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday99%Fri 1 Jan
  98. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No94%Sun 4 Oct
  99. Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?: No99%Wed 16 Sept
  100. New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Chris Pappas96%Tue 8 Sept
  101. Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  102. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?: Yes81%Fri 1 Jan
  103. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No94%Fri 8 Jan
  104. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Ciro Gomes65%Sun 4 Oct
  105. Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?: 27-30%55%Sun 13 Sept
  106. Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?: No69%Fri 1 Jan
  107. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?: No91%Thu 31 Dec
  108. NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Maura Sullivan81%Tue 8 Sept
  109. NH-01 Republican Primary Winner: Anthony DiLorenzo78%Tue 8 Sept
  110. Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?: No84%Wed 16 Sept
  111. Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting?: No98%Wed 23 Sept
  112. US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?: Yes65%Wed 30 Sept
  113. Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  114. Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?: No97%Thu 1 Jul
  115. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  116. Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner : Jorginho Mello95%Sun 4 Oct
  117. Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?: No54%Sun 13 Sept
  118. Will the US sign a peace agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan before September 30, 2026?: Yes58%Wed 30 Sept
  119. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro81%Mon 5 Oct
  120. Bahia Governor Election Winner: Jerônimo Rodrigues50%Sun 4 Oct
  121. Lima Mayoral Election Winner: Rafael López Aliaga67%Sun 4 Oct
  122. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes97%Sun 4 Oct
  123. Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No98%Sun 4 Oct
  124. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Sweden Democrats (SD)79%Sun 13 Sept
  125. Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner: Elaine Pelino91%Tue 8 Sept
  126. Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic Primary Winner: Kim Ahern87%Wed 9 Sept
  127. Osnabrück Mayoral Election Winner: Katharina Pötter86%Sun 13 Sept
  128. Will Dan McKee be renominated for Governor of Rhode Island in 2026?: No96%Tue 8 Sept
  129. Providence, RI Democratic Mayoral Nominee: David Morales87%Wed 9 Sept
  130. August Inflation US - Annual: 3.4%43%Fri 11 Sept
  131. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Moderate Party (M)81%Sun 13 Sept
  132. Sweden Parliamentary Election: Örebropartiet Win Seats?: No88%Sun 13 Sept
  133. Hannover Mayoral Election Winner: Belit Onay76%Sun 13 Sept
  134. Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner: Julianne Moore57%Sun 14 Mar
  135. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 4th Place: Centre Party (C)37%Sun 13 Sept
  136. August Inflation China - Annual: 0.7% - 0.8%50%Wed 9 Sept
  137. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 6th Place: Green Party (MP)31%Sun 13 Sept
  138. Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SD or M?: SD69%Sun 13 Sept
  139. Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner: Matt Damon25%Sun 14 Mar
  140. European Central Bank interest rate decision in September: Rise by 0.25% or more96%Wed 9 Sept
  141. What will be the #2 global Netflix show this week?: Beauty in Black: Season 398%Tue 8 Sept
  142. Sweden Parliamentary Elections: Social Democratic Party # of seats?: <10537%Sun 13 Sept
  143. What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?: Turning Point: Generation 9/1179%Tue 8 Sept
  144. Braunschweig Mayoral Election Winner: Thorsten Kornblum89%Sun 13 Sept
  145. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 5th Place: Left Party (V)40%Sun 13 Sept
  146. Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes87%Sat 17 Apr
  147. What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?: Beauty in Black: Season 397%Tue 8 Sept
  148. Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No87%Sat 17 Apr
  149. UEFA Europa League: 2027 Champion: Milan16%Sun 30 May
  150. 🇸🇪 Will Sweden’s Social Democrats win at least 31% of the vote in the September 13, 2026 general election?: No54%Sun 13 Sept
  151. Salzgitter Mayoral Election Winner: Frank Klingebiel96%Sun 13 Sept
  152. Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?: Yes83%Thu 1 Jul
  153. Oldenburg Mayoral Election Winner: Jascha Rohr66%Sun 13 Sept
  154. Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No97%Sat 17 Apr
  155. Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No91%Fri 30 Apr
  156. Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes88%Sat 17 Apr
  157. Winner of France’s presidential election: Édouard Philippe29%Thu 1 Apr
  158. Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No93%Sat 17 Apr
  159. What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?: The Whisper Man95%Tue 8 Sept
  160. Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No72%Sat 17 Apr
  161. Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No74%Sat 17 Apr
  162. Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Xaykham Khamsyvoravong52%Wed 9 Sept
  163. What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?: The Secret Woman98%Tue 8 Sept
  164. Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner: The Debut33%Sun 14 Mar
  165. Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?: No94%Thu 1 Jul
  166. Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes61%Sat 17 Apr
  167. Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No94%Sat 17 Apr
  168. Göttingen Mayoral Election Winner: Onyeka Oshionwu47%Sun 13 Sept
  169. Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 30 million views this week?: Yes96%Tue 8 Sept
  170. Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No94%Sat 17 Apr
  171. Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No90%Sat 17 Apr
  172. Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No74%Sat 17 Apr
  173. Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: Yes87%Fri 30 Apr
  174. Sweden Parliamentary Election: V Over/Under 7%?: Over74%Sun 13 Sept
  175. Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes71%Sat 17 Apr
  176. What will be the top global Netflix show this week?: Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 199%Tue 8 Sept
  177. Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Winner: The Odyssey54%Sun 14 Mar
  178. Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No75%Sat 17 Apr
  179. Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes84%Sat 17 Apr
  180. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes95%Sat 17 Apr
  181. Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Winner: The Odyssey44%Sun 14 Mar
  182. Oscars 2027: Best Visual Effects Winner: Dune: Part Three50%Sun 14 Mar
  183. Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner: The Black Ball23%Sun 14 Mar
  184. Hannover Region Presidential Election Winner: Sinja Münzberg57%Sun 13 Sept
  185. Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Winner: Paul Giamatti36%Sun 14 Mar
  186. Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Winner: Anne Hathaway32%Sun 14 Mar
  187. Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner: Christopher Nolan37%Sun 14 Mar
  188. What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?: The Whisper Man99%Tue 8 Sept
  189. New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary: Margin of Victory: Pappas 15–20%78%Tue 8 Sept
  190. Oscars 2027: Best Casting Winner: The Odyssey39%Sun 14 Mar
  191. Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown?: Yes85%Thu 1 Jul
  192. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Tue 3 Nov
  193. Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?: No99%Fri 6 Nov
  194. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No88%Wed 4 Nov
  195. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No92%Wed 4 Nov
  196. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No88%Sun 1 Nov
  197. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  198. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  199. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane59%Sat 31 Oct
  200. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)89%Thu 31 Dec
  201. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei80%Thu 31 Dec
  202. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No96%Wed 18 Nov
  203. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: Yes55%Sat 3 Oct
  204. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: No51%Tue 1 Dec
  205. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No63%Tue 3 Nov
  206. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  207. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot49%Thu 31 Dec
  208. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No50%Tue 1 Dec
  209. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party87%Tue 3 Nov
  210. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes89%Sun 15 Nov
  211. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Yulia Navalnaya19%Sat 10 Oct
  212. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No89%Sun 15 Nov
  213. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  214. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  215. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli82%Sun 6 Dec
  216. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep52%Tue 3 Nov
  217. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro84%Thu 31 Dec
  218. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  219. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  220. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  221. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No51%Wed 4 Nov
  222. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  223. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  224. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes73%Wed 4 Nov
  225. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  226. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  227. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  228. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No80%Tue 3 Nov
  229. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  230. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  231. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  232. Berlin State Election Winner: Linke44%Sun 20 Sept
  233. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  234. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  235. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes93%Sun 6 Dec
  236. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  237. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  238. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No70%Tue 3 Nov
  239. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  240. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  241. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  242. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  243. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  244. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No86%Tue 3 Nov
  245. OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  246. AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  247. CA-15 House Election Winner: Democratic Party90%Tue 3 Nov
  248. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  249. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No66%Mon 30 Nov
  250. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.