80%Chang San-cheng elected Mayor of Taoyuan29%Édouard Philippe won the 2027 French Presidential election25%Julianne Moore and Matt Damon won top acting awards at 2027 Oscars41%Fed kept policy rate at 4% throughout 202661%Anthropic led AI model rankings in 202659%Extended token topped $150 million while others fell short33%Israel installed Gadi Eizenkot as Prime Minister52%Spider-Man: Brand New Day topped 2026 box office87%U.S. did not acquire any part of Greenland in 202652%Democrats win California and Wisconsin governorships51%Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September52%Tarcísio de Freitas Elected governor of São Paulo

AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Tuesday, 8 September 2026
Edition of Wednesday, 8 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Tue 8 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Wednesday, 8 September 2027.

Politics

Chang San-cheng elected Mayor of Taoyuan

Ann Kao won the Hsinchu City mayoral race as the June-July 2026 local elections concluded.

80% certain
lead market 80%next 20%1 venuesettles Wed 30 Jun

The June-July 2026 local elections in Taiwan were finalized on Wednesday, 30 June 2027. Chiang Wan-an emerged as the New Mayor of Taipei. Chang San-cheng secured the mayoralty of Taoyuan. Ann Kao was elected Mayor of Hsinchu City and Chung Tung-chin won the Magistrate post in Miaoli County.

Chiang Wan-an was declared the winner of the Taipei mayoral contest. He now serves as Mayor of Taipei.

Read the full report

Culture

The Pitt won Outstanding Drama series

The Late Show With Stephen Colbert took Outstanding variety series while Widow's Bay claimed Outstanding comedy series.

57% certain
lead market 57%next 41%1 venuesettles Mon 14 Sept

Politics

BFP won Bangsamoro Parliament election

The BFP secured the Bangsamoro Parliament and Genta Koja defeated Denny Tamaki for Okinawa governor.

64% certain
lead market 64%next 33%1 venuesettles Mon 14 Sept

Politics

Dennis Weilmann elected mayor of Wolfsburg

On Sunday, Dennis Weilmann was elected mayor of Wolfsburg, and Thorsten Kornblum won Braunschweig.

56% certain
lead market 56%next 44%1 venuesettles Sun 13 Sept

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Tue 3 Nov
  2. Fed Decision in September?: 25 bps increase51%Wed 16 Sept
  3. Brazil Presidential Election: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva51%Sun 4 Oct
  4. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)67%Wed 30 Sept
  5. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)89%Thu 31 Dec
  6. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: Yes57%Sat 3 Oct
  7. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen32%Fri 30 Apr
  8. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  9. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot51%Thu 31 Dec
  10. Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson77%Sun 13 Sept
  11. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro88%Sun 4 Oct
  12. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No52%Wed 4 Nov
  13. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes73%Wed 4 Nov
  14. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3092%Thu 1 Oct
  15. Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes71%Wed 9 Dec
  16. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  17. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  18. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day92%Thu 31 Dec
  19. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0%41%Wed 9 Dec
  20. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No86%Tue 3 Nov
  21. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No92%Thu 31 Dec
  22. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  23. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  24. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  25. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  26. Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%Sun 13 Sept
  27. Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  28. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)99%Wed 30 Sept
  29. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes83%Wed 14 Oct
  30. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  31. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula57%Fri 2 Oct
  32. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  33. Next Prime Minister of Romania?: Alexandru Nazare33%Thu 31 Dec
  34. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  35. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes86%Wed 14 Oct
  36. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  37. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Will Democrats win the Texas Gubernatorial election?: No83%Tue 3 Nov
  39. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  40. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  41. Fed Decision in October?: No change66%Wed 28 Oct
  42. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  43. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  44. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  45. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No74%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Other51%Wed 16 Sept
  47. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  48. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No75%Fri 1 Jan
  49. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?: No99%Sun 20 Sept
  50. Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?: Yes53%Wed 9 Dec
  51. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Augusto Cury54%Sun 4 Oct
  52. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ73%Mon 5 Oct
  53. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  54. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic61%Fri 1 Jan
  55. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)79%Sun 4 Oct
  56. Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series: “Widow’s Bay”77%Mon 14 Sept
  57. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)87%Sun 20 Sept
  58. Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?: Yes89%Sat 12 Sept
  59. Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  60. Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?: No100%Thu 8 Oct
  61. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?: No97%Thu 31 Dec
  62. Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  63. Fed decisions (Jul–Oct): Other65%Wed 28 Oct
  64. Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  65. Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?: Yes63%Wed 9 Dec
  66. Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?: Yes65%Sun 20 Sept
  67. Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  68. 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?: No54%Wed 16 Sept
  69. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33936%Sun 20 Sept
  70. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%41%Sun 4 Oct
  71. StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  72. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  73. Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?: No85%Sat 3 Oct
  74. Fed Decision in December?: No change48%Wed 9 Dec
  75. Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?: Yes59%Fri 1 Jan
  76. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo96%Sun 4 Oct
  77. Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?: 27-30%53%Sun 13 Sept
  78. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday52%Fri 1 Jan
  79. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No95%Sun 4 Oct
  80. Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  81. Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?: No99%Wed 16 Sept
  82. São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Tarcísio de Freitas99%Sun 4 Oct
  83. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No94%Fri 8 Jan
  84. StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  85. Emmys 2026: Outstanding drama series: “The Pitt”94%Mon 14 Sept
  86. Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting?: No98%Wed 23 Sept
  87. Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?: Yes59%Sun 13 Sept
  88. Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series: “DTF St. Louis”73%Mon 14 Sept
  89. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  90. US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?: Yes75%Wed 30 Sept
  91. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Ciro Gomes64%Sun 4 Oct
  92. Will the US sign a peace agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan before September 30, 2026?: No58%Wed 30 Sept
  93. Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  94. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes93%Mon 5 Oct
  95. Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?: Yes87%Thu 1 Oct
  96. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Sweden Democrats (SD)77%Sun 13 Sept
  97. Next Premier of Quebec: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon74%Mon 5 Oct
  98. Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No99%Sun 4 Oct
  99. Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  100. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro83%Mon 5 Oct
  101. Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic Primary Winner: Kim Ahern86%Wed 9 Sept
  102. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco52%Sun 4 Oct
  103. How many Emmys will “DTF St. Louis” win?: 0-199%Mon 14 Sept
  104. Bahia Governor Election Winner: Jerônimo Rodrigues53%Sun 4 Oct
  105. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: OpenAI84%Thu 1 Oct
  106. Osnabrück Mayoral Election Winner: Katharina Pötter88%Sun 13 Sept
  107. 2026 Bangsamoro Parliament Election: Party Winner: BFP64%Mon 14 Sept
  108. Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No100%Sun 4 Oct
  109. Providence, RI Democratic Mayoral Nominee: David Morales88%Wed 9 Sept
  110. How many Emmys will “Hacks” win?: 2-360%Mon 14 Sept
  111. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Moderate Party (M)78%Sun 13 Sept
  112. Will a streaming series not from HBO win Best Drama Series at the 2026 Emmys?: No93%Tue 15 Sept
  113. Sweden Parliamentary Election: Örebropartiet Win Seats?: No81%Sun 13 Sept
  114. Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series: “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”94%Mon 14 Sept
  115. Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?: OpenAI63%Thu 1 Oct
  116. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 4th Place: Centre Party (C)38%Sun 13 Sept
  117. Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner: The Odyssey45%Sun 14 Mar
  118. How many Emmys will “Beef” win?: 0-157%Mon 14 Sept
  119. Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner: Julianne Moore60%Sun 14 Mar
  120. Hannover Mayoral Election Winner: Belit Onay83%Sun 13 Sept
  121. Will OpenAI classify any model as "Critical" capability under its Preparedness Framework before Oct 1, 2026?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  122. Sweden Parliamentary Elections: Social Democratic Party # of seats?: <10552%Sun 13 Sept
  123. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 5th Place: Green Party (MP)31%Sun 13 Sept
  124. Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of September?: OpenAI93%Thu 1 Oct
  125. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 6th Place: Green Party (MP)30%Sun 13 Sept
  126. Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner: Matt Damon25%Sun 14 Mar
  127. Hannover Region Presidential Election Winner: Eva Bender75%Sun 13 Sept
  128. Wolfsburg Mayoral Election Winner: Dennis Weilmann99%Sun 13 Sept
  129. Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes90%Sat 17 Apr
  130. Okinawa Governor Election Winner: Genta Koja68%Sun 13 Sept
  131. Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SD or M?: SD72%Sun 13 Sept
  132. Braunschweig Mayoral Election Winner: Thorsten Kornblum99%Sun 13 Sept
  133. Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No85%Sat 17 Apr
  134. 🇸🇪 Will Sweden’s Social Democrats win at least 31% of the vote in the September 13, 2026 general election?: No54%Sun 13 Sept
  135. Salzgitter Mayoral Election Winner: Frank Klingebiel95%Sun 13 Sept
  136. Oldenburg Mayoral Election Winner: Jascha Rohr63%Sun 13 Sept
  137. Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No97%Sat 17 Apr
  138. Hsinchu City Mayor Election Winner: Ann Kao86%Wed 30 Jun
  139. Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No88%Sat 17 Apr
  140. Miaoli County Magistrate Election Winner: Chung Tung-chin89%Wed 30 Jun
  141. Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No91%Fri 30 Apr
  142. Israel Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?: Yes77%Tue 8 Sept
  143. Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Xaykham Khamsyvoravong50%Wed 9 Sept
  144. Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes88%Sat 17 Apr
  145. Göttingen Mayoral Election Winner: Onyeka Oshionwu56%Sun 13 Sept
  146. Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No69%Sat 17 Apr
  147. Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No93%Sat 17 Apr
  148. Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Chiang Wan-an93%Wed 30 Jun
  149. Sweden Parliamentary Election: V Over/Under 7%?: Over78%Sun 13 Sept
  150. Winner of France’s presidential election: Édouard Philippe29%Thu 1 Apr
  151. Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner: Wild Horse Nine27%Sun 14 Mar
  152. Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes61%Sat 17 Apr
  153. New Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Lee Shu-chuan80%Wed 30 Jun
  154. Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No95%Sat 17 Apr
  155. Taoyuan Mayor Election Winner: Chang San-cheng90%Wed 30 Jun
  156. Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No94%Sat 17 Apr
  157. Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No90%Sat 17 Apr
  158. Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No74%Sat 17 Apr
  159. Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Winner: The Odyssey51%Sun 14 Mar
  160. Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Winner: The Odyssey43%Sun 14 Mar
  161. Oscars 2027: Best Visual Effects Winner: Dune: Part Three50%Sun 14 Mar
  162. Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner: The Odyssey25%Sun 14 Mar
  163. Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Winner: Paul Giamatti33%Sun 14 Mar
  164. Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Winner: Anne Hathaway34%Sun 14 Mar
  165. Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner: Christopher Nolan39%Sun 14 Mar
  166. Oscars 2027: Best Casting Winner: The Odyssey43%Sun 14 Mar
  167. Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?: No99%Fri 6 Nov
  168. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No88%Wed 4 Nov
  169. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No92%Wed 4 Nov
  170. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  171. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  172. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane57%Sat 31 Oct
  173. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: No50%Wed 4 Nov
  174. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei80%Thu 31 Dec
  175. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No96%Wed 18 Nov
  176. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes62%Tue 3 Nov
  177. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: No51%Tue 1 Dec
  178. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No65%Tue 3 Nov
  179. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No50%Tue 1 Dec
  180. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party87%Tue 3 Nov
  181. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes88%Sun 15 Nov
  182. Will my this market post cross 200k Mana mark? (THIS ONE): Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  183. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Yulia Navalnaya18%Sat 10 Oct
  184. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No89%Sun 15 Nov
  185. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  186. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  187. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  188. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli82%Sun 6 Dec
  189. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep51%Tue 3 Nov
  190. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  191. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  192. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro82%Thu 31 Dec
  193. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  194. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  195. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  196. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  197. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  198. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes67%Tue 3 Nov
  199. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No80%Tue 3 Nov
  200. Berlin State Election Winner: Linke49%Sun 20 Sept
  201. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  202. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  203. MS-01 House Election Winner: Republican Party89%Tue 3 Nov
  204. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  205. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  206. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  207. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes92%Sun 6 Dec
  208. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  209. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  210. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No69%Tue 3 Nov
  211. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  212. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  213. Israel closes its airspace by September 30?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  214. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party51%Tue 3 Nov
  215. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  216. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  217. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: No51%Tue 3 Nov
  218. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  219. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  220. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  221. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers30%Sat 31 Oct
  222. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No66%Mon 30 Nov
  223. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  224. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  225. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  226. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic84%Thu 1 Oct
  227. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  228. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No96%Sun 27 Sept
  229. AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?: No51%Wed 30 Sept
  230. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  231. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  232. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes90%Thu 1 Oct
  233. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  234. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  235. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No76%Thu 31 Dec
  236. 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Carlos Alcaraz55%Sun 13 Sept
  237. Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?: No89%Wed 30 Sept
  238. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  239. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Inter Miami CF20%Sat 19 Dec
  240. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  241. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  242. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes88%Wed 30 Sept
  243. Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  244. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes54%Mon 23 Nov
  245. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  246. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  247. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  248. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  249. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund57%Tue 8 Sept
  250. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: No96%Sun 1 Nov
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.