14%Barcelona claimed the 2026-27 LALIGA title60%Israel set end-2027 withdrawal deadline from Lebanon32%Marine Le Pen won the 2027 French Presidential election48%Fed ended 2026 with policy rate at 4.25%79%Mojtaba Khamenei remained Iran's leader as 2026 ended69%Ukraine failed to join NATO in 202694%China did not invade Taiwan in 202675%United States remained in NATO in 202678%Israel struck four countries while Iran-Israel ceasefire persisted64%Xavier Becerra elected governor as California rejects Billionaire tax49%Gadi Eizenkot became Israel's Prime Minister after election54%Democrats swept Congress, winning house and senate

AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Thursday, 17 September 2026
Edition of Friday, 17 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Thu 17 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Friday, 17 September 2027.

Sports

Barcelona claimed the 2026-27 LALIGA title

Paris Saint-Germain secured the Ligue 1 crown while Estéban Lepaul topped the scoring charts.

14% certain
lead market 14%next 12%1 venuesettles Sun 13 Jun

Barcelona secured the LALIGA championship on 30 may, ending the season as Spain's top club. In France, Paris Saint-Germain captured the Ligue 1 crown the same day. Across Europe, Juventus lifted the UEFA Europa League trophy, while Porto and PSV earned Portugal and Dutch championships respectively.

Betis finished outside the top two positions in LALIGA, confirming a lower-placed finish. In Ligue 1, Estéban Lepaul emerged as the top Goalscorer, outpacing his rivals. Meanwhile, in Mexico's Liga MX, Juan Brunetta claimed the season's top-scorer honour.

Read the full report

World

China did not invade Taiwan in 2026

China also refrained from blockading Taiwan and avoided military clashes with Japan throughout the year.

94% certain
lead market 94%next 6%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

World

United States remained in NATO in 2026

The United States stayed in NATO and no direct NATO-Russia clash took place in 2026.

75% certain
lead market 75%next 26%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

World

Strait of Hormuz traffic remained disrupted

Bab el-Mandeb Strait was not effectively closed and the United States had not announced an end to the Iranian blockade.

92% certain
lead market 92%next 14%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Oct

World

Iran kept Hormuz airspace open

It also refused to charge passage fees and did not sign a US-Iran agreement by September 30.

90% certain
lead market 90%next 14%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Tue 3 Nov
  2. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)72%Wed 30 Sept
  3. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No91%Wed 4 Nov
  4. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  5. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  6. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)93%Thu 31 Dec
  7. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei79%Thu 31 Dec
  8. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party89%Tue 3 Nov
  9. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen32%Fri 30 Apr
  10. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes56%Tue 1 Dec
  11. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot49%Thu 31 Dec
  12. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep58%Tue 3 Nov
  13. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No57%Tue 1 Dec
  14. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  15. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes89%Sun 15 Nov
  16. Israel closes its airspace by September 30?: Yes99%Thu 1 Oct
  17. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No91%Sun 15 Nov
  18. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  19. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)98%Wed 30 Sept
  20. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  21. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party59%Tue 3 Nov
  22. Fed Decision in October?: No change54%Wed 28 Oct
  23. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  24. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No70%Tue 3 Nov
  25. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic96%Thu 1 Oct
  26. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%48%Wed 9 Dec
  27. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  28. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 478%Fri 1 Jan
  29. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  30. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  31. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  32. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  33. Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  34. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: Yes54%Tue 3 Nov
  35. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  36. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  37. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  40. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  41. Next Prime Minister of Romania?: Alexandru Nazare50%Thu 31 Dec
  42. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  43. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  44. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  45. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass64%Thu 31 Dec
  46. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?: No100%Sun 20 Sept
  47. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  48. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No75%Fri 1 Jan
  49. Iran full airspace closure by September 30?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  50. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  51. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  52. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  53. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  54. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  55. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  56. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33942%Sun 20 Sept
  57. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: Yes57%Wed 4 Nov
  58. Will California elect a Republican governor in 2026?: No96%Tue 3 Nov
  59. LALIGA: 2027 Champion: Barcelona63%Sun 30 May
  60. US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  61. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  62. Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?: Yes85%Sat 7 Nov
  63. Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026: No83%Sat 31 Oct
  64. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  65. Will Xavier Becerra OR Tom Steyer win the 2026 California Governor election?: Yes97%Fri 6 Nov
  66. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  67. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No86%Thu 31 Dec
  68. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)92%Sun 20 Sept
  69. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase67%Wed 9 Dec
  70. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes80%Sat 31 Oct
  71. Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  72. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No69%Fri 1 Jan
  73. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  74. Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?: Yes65%Sun 20 Sept
  75. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No88%Sun 1 Nov
  76. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No88%Sun 1 Nov
  77. US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?: No95%Thu 31 Dec
  78. Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo: No95%Thu 31 Dec
  79. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo78%Sun 4 Oct
  80. Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  81. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)82%Sun 4 Oct
  82. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  83. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?: No89%Thu 31 Dec
  84. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  85. São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Tarcísio de Freitas99%Sun 4 Oct
  86. Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?: Yes100%Thu 1 Oct
  87. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No97%Fri 8 Jan
  88. Will The Odyssey gross more than Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the domestic box office this weekend (Sept 18–20)?: Yes82%Sun 20 Sept
  89. Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  90. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)65%Thu 31 Dec
  91. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?: No82%Thu 31 Dec
  92. Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?: No74%Thu 1 Jul
  93. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro85%Mon 5 Oct
  94. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?: Yes60%Wed 31 Mar
  95. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Ciro Gomes59%Sun 4 Oct
  96. Did OpenAI just solve hodge??: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  97. Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  98. Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?: No59%Thu 1 Oct
  99. Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  100. Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  101. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes84%Mon 5 Oct
  102. Israel military action against Lebanon on September 26?: Yes83%Sat 26 Sept
  103. Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?: No85%Thu 1 Oct
  104. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: Yes63%Mon 21 Sept
  105. Ligue 1: 2027 Champion: Paris Saint-Germain78%Sun 30 May
  106. Bahia Governor Election Winner: Jerônimo Rodrigues61%Sun 4 Oct
  107. Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No88%Thu 1 Oct
  108. Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by September 30?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  109. Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?: Anthropic93%Thu 1 Oct
  110. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: OpenAI75%Thu 1 Oct
  111. Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)56%Sun 20 Sept
  112. Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  113. Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  114. Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  115. Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout: 53-56%24%Sun 20 Sept
  116. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?: Anthropic87%Thu 1 Oct
  117. Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On): Anthropic99%Thu 1 Oct
  118. "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office: 70m+41%Sun 20 Sept
  119. Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?: OpenAI94%Thu 1 Oct
  120. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?: Anthropic92%Thu 1 Oct
  121. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?: Anthropic90%Thu 1 Oct
  122. Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of September?: OpenAI99%Thu 1 Oct
  123. Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  124. Will United Russia get more seats in the next Russian Duma election than the one in 2021?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  125. Will the Trump administration successfully overturn the Anthropic injunction on appeal by September 30, 2026?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  126. How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?: <3583%Sun 20 Sept
  127. Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?: Anthropic76%Thu 1 Oct
  128. Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?: Yes51%Thu 1 Oct
  129. Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No89%Fri 30 Apr
  130. Will OpenAI release a new model before October?: Yes85%Wed 30 Sept
  131. Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?: Yes91%Thu 1 Oct
  132. Will OpenAI classify any model as "Critical" capability under its Preparedness Framework before Oct 1, 2026?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  133. Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes88%Sat 17 Apr
  134. Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No83%Sat 17 Apr
  135. UEFA Europa League: 2027 Champion: Juventus15%Sun 30 May
  136. Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No88%Sat 17 Apr
  137. Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No93%Fri 30 Apr
  138. Primeira Liga: 2027 Champion: Porto37%Sun 30 May
  139. Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No97%Sat 17 Apr
  140. Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?: No98%Fri 23 Apr
  141. Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes83%Sat 17 Apr
  142. Will "Resident Evil" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: Yes89%Mon 21 Sept
  143. Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No61%Sat 17 Apr
  144. Will Betis finish in the top 2 of the 2026-27 LaLiga season?: No99%Sun 30 May
  145. Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No69%Sat 17 Apr
  146. Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No94%Sat 17 Apr
  147. Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes78%Sat 17 Apr
  148. Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes61%Sat 17 Apr
  149. Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: Yes88%Fri 30 Apr
  150. Liga MX: 2026-27 Top Goalscorer: Juan Brunetta16%Sun 13 Jun
  151. Ligue 1: Top Goalscorer 2026-27: Estéban Lepaul22%Mon 31 May
  152. Liga MX: 2027 Clausura Most Assists: Alexis Vega14%Sun 13 Jun
  153. Eredivisie: 2026-27 Winner: PSV Eindhoven47%Sun 1 Aug
  154. Will Israel withdraw from Lebanon by ...?: December 3192%Wed 30 Jun
  155. Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?: Yes64%Sun 20 Sept
  156. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro52%Sun 4 Oct
  157. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No95%Wed 4 Nov
  158. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No94%Sat 31 Oct
  159. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane52%Sat 31 Oct
  160. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No54%Sat 3 Oct
  161. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes53%Wed 4 Nov
  162. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  163. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No95%Wed 18 Nov
  164. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes64%Tue 3 Nov
  165. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No65%Tue 3 Nov
  166. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms15%Sat 10 Oct
  167. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3092%Thu 1 Oct
  168. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  169. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  170. Berlin State Election Winner: Linke62%Sun 20 Sept
  171. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro82%Thu 31 Dec
  172. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  173. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro76%Sun 4 Oct
  174. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day90%Thu 31 Dec
  175. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes76%Wed 4 Nov
  176. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  177. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  178. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli92%Sun 6 Dec
  179. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  180. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No53%Wed 4 Nov
  181. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  182. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  183. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  184. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  185. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No88%Tue 3 Nov
  186. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  187. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes67%Tue 3 Nov
  188. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  189. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  190. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  191. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  192. FL-01 House Election Winner: Jimmy Patronis (R)89%Tue 3 Nov
  193. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  194. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic52%Thu 31 Dec
  195. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  196. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  197. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  198. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Thu 31 Dec
  199. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  200. Opus 5.2 released in September?: No77%Wed 30 Sept
  201. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  202. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  203. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  204. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  205. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  206. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No87%Tue 3 Nov
  207. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  208. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  209. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No83%Thu 31 Dec
  210. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  211. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 17?: Yes93%Thu 17 Sept
  212. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers31%Sat 31 Oct
  213. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No65%Mon 30 Nov
  214. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  215. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  216. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  217. Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?: No88%Thu 1 Oct
  218. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  219. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Vancouver Whitecaps FC18%Sat 19 Dec
  220. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  221. Trump out as President by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  222. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  223. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  224. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  225. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No59%Sun 27 Sept
  226. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA71%Thu 31 Dec
  227. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes92%Wed 14 Oct
  228. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  229. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  230. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  231. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  232. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  233. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes54%Mon 23 Nov
  234. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Los Angeles Rams11%Wed 31 Mar
  235. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  236. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner: AfD76%Sun 20 Sept
  237. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No95%Mon 2 Nov
  238. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No89%Sun 3 Jan
  239. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  240. US recession by end of 2026?: No90%Sun 31 Jan
  241. Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 100.00 USDC Base by September 21th 11:59 pm UTC: Yes60%Mon 21 Sept
  242. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: No65%Fri 1 Jan
  243. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  244. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026?: No83%Tue 29 Sept
  245. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202699%Fri 1 Jan
  246. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  247. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula48%Fri 2 Oct
  248. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes83%Wed 28 Oct
  249. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  250. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes69%Mon 30 Nov
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.