30%Aida Hadžialić and Mattias Ottosson named Regional chairs as S-Green coalition formed46%Barcelona and PSG won their leagues as Porto and PSV claimed titles63%Israel pledged to withdraw from Lebanon by year-end33%Petr Hlaváček elected Mayor of Prague50%Fed ended 2026 with policy rate at 4.25% after two hikes68%Anthropic topped AI model rankings as OpenAI stayed unchanged94%Putin, Trump and Zelenskyy remained in office through 202688%Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran's top post81%Iranian regime survived, Hormuz traffic stayed disrupted, Dome of the Rock intact56%United Russia secured the most seats in Russia's 2026 Parliamentary election51%Israel and Colombia kept rates steady as China posted 4.3-4.6% growth70%Spider-Man 4 out-earned Toy Story 5 and Scream 7 combined

AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Monday, 21 September 2026
Edition of Tuesday, 21 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Mon 21 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Tuesday, 21 September 2027.

Politics

Aida Hadžialić and Mattias Ottosson named Regional chairs as S-Green coalition formed

Aida Hadžialić took Stockholm's Board, Mattias Ottosson led Östergötland, and a Social-Democratic-Green pact will steer the next government.

30% certain
lead market 30%next 17%1 venuesettles Sun 1 Aug

On Thursday 1 April Aida Hadžialić was elected Chair of the Stockholm Regional Board The same day Mattias Ottosson secured the chairmanship of the Östergötland Regional Board Both appointments were confirmed by the respective Regional assemblies. On Sunday 1 August the Social Democratic Party and the Green Party announced their agreement to form the next Swedish government.

Hadžialić's election ended a contest that had included Axel Conradi and other candidates. Her victory gave her responsibility for steering Stockholm's Regional policies.

Read the full report

World

Iran took no aggressive steps in Hormuz corridor

Iran left the Strait open, kept its airspace unrestricted, did not charge transit fees and did not sign a Hormuz agreement with Oman.

93% certain
lead market 93%next 7%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Oct

Politics

Kraków elected Łukasz Gibała as mayor

Germany's Energy Minister Katharina Reiche remained in office and São Tomé and Príncipe's second-place Parliamentary outcome did not materialise.

58% certain
lead market 58%next 42%1 venuesettles Sun 27 Sept

World

Houthis hit vessels in Strait of Hormuz on September 26

It failed to attack Saudi Arabia on September 21 and missed Shipping targets through September 23, but struck vessels in Strait of Hormuz on September 26.

60% certain
lead market 60%next 36%1 venuesettles Sat 26 Sept

Culture

A'ja Wilson named WNBA MVP for 2026

Cheryl Reeve earned Coach of the year honors and Gabby Williams captured Defensive Player of the year.

43% certain
lead market 43%next 34%1 venuesettles Fri 25 Sept

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro56%Sun 4 Oct
  2. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)99%Wed 30 Sept
  3. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Tue 3 Nov
  4. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No92%Wed 4 Nov
  5. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes57%Wed 4 Nov
  6. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  7. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)97%Thu 31 Dec
  8. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei88%Thu 31 Dec
  9. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  10. Fed Decision in October?: 25 bps increase54%Wed 28 Oct
  11. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  12. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic97%Thu 1 Oct
  13. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  14. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%50%Wed 9 Dec
  15. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  16. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  17. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  18. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  19. Will The Odyssey gross more than Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the domestic box office every single day from Sept 14–30?: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  20. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  21. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  22. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  23. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  24. Iran full airspace closure by September 30?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  25. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  26. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  27. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  28. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  29. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  30. LALIGA: 2027 Champion: Barcelona73%Sun 30 May
  31. Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?: Yes83%Tue 29 Sept
  32. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  33. Elon Musk # tweets September 15 - September 22, 2026?: 180-19949%Tue 22 Sept
  34. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  35. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase67%Wed 9 Dec
  36. US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on October 1st 2026?: Yes99%Thu 1 Oct
  37. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic68%Fri 1 Jan
  38. US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?: Yes94%Wed 30 Sept
  40. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  41. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  42. Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  43. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  44. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  45. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes81%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Will Trump and Xi meet in September 2026?: Yes81%Wed 30 Sept
  47. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  48. Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?: No82%Thu 1 Oct
  49. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  50. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Anthropic86%Sun 1 Nov
  51. São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Tarcísio de Freitas99%Sun 4 Oct
  52. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No96%Fri 8 Jan
  53. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo99%Sun 4 Oct
  54. Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  55. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)59%Thu 31 Dec
  56. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes75%Mon 5 Oct
  57. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  58. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?: Yes63%Wed 31 Mar
  59. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro81%Mon 5 Oct
  60. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Ciro Gomes58%Sun 4 Oct
  61. Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?: No75%Thu 1 Jul
  62. Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  63. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: Yes83%Mon 21 Sept
  64. Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  65. Ligue 1: 2027 Champion: Paris Saint-Germain77%Sun 30 May
  66. Will the Community movie get a 75 or higher on Metacritic?: No70%Sat 10 Oct
  67. Bahia Governor Election Winner: Jerônimo Rodrigues60%Sun 4 Oct
  68. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco66%Sun 4 Oct
  69. Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?: Anthropic93%Thu 1 Oct
  70. Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On): Anthropic95%Thu 1 Oct
  71. # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?: 60-70M82%Sat 26 Sept
  72. Will Katharina Reiche stop being the german Minister of Energy by the next regular election?: No58%Sun 27 Sept
  73. Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner: Pam Alexis63%Sat 26 Sept
  74. WNBA: 2026 MVP: A'ja Wilson94%Fri 25 Sept
  75. Central Bank of Colombia decision in September: No change57%Wed 30 Sept
  76. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?: Anthropic94%Thu 1 Oct
  77. Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  78. Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?: No98%Sun 27 Sept
  79. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?: Anthropic87%Thu 1 Oct
  80. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?: Anthropic89%Thu 1 Oct
  81. Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?: OpenAI97%Thu 1 Oct
  82. Best AI model on September 21?: claude-fable-5.1-max94%Mon 21 Sept
  83. China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?: 4.3-4.6%51%Tue 20 Oct
  84. Will Drake release a new album by September 30?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  85. Bank of Israel Decision in October?: No Change77%Wed 21 Oct
  86. Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 21?: No69%Mon 21 Sept
  87. Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 23, 2026?: No83%Wed 23 Sept
  88. Kraków Mayoral Election Winner: Łukasz Gibała83%Sun 27 Sept
  89. Will the For safe food – through strengthening sustainable domestic production, increasing plant-based foods and ensuring clean drinking water (food initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?: No97%Sun 27 Sept
  90. Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 26, 2026?: Yes60%Sat 26 Sept
  91. Primeira Liga: 2027 Champion: Porto52%Sun 30 May
  92. Khamenei # posts September 15 - September 22, 2026?: <597%Tue 22 Sept
  93. Donald Trump # Truth Social posts September 15 - September 22, 2026?: 100-11933%Tue 22 Sept
  94. Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026?: No91%Fri 25 Sept
  95. Next Regional Board Chair of Östergötland?: Mattias Ottosson81%Thu 1 Apr
  96. WNBA: 2026 Coach of the Year: Cheryl Reeve68%Fri 25 Sept
  97. Will NVDA own >1% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026?: Yes70%Wed 23 Sept
  98. WNBA: 2026 Defensive Player of the Year: Gabby Williams43%Fri 25 Sept
  99. Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?: Aida Hadžialić92%Thu 1 Apr
  100. São Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: did not happen90%Sun 27 Sept
  101. Next Mayor of Brno: Kamila Zlatušková33%Wed 30 Jun
  102. Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?: S + MP30%Sun 1 Aug
  103. Next Mayor of Prague: Petr Hlaváček44%Wed 30 Jun
  104. Next Mayor of Ústí nad Labem: Tomáš Hrubý55%Wed 30 Jun
  105. Eredivisie: 2026-27 Winner: PSV Eindhoven46%Sun 1 Aug
  106. Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 24?: Yes89%Fri 25 Sept
  107. Will Israel withdraw from Lebanon by ...?: December 3192%Wed 30 Jun
  108. Will "OpenAI" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 21?: No61%Sun 27 Sept
  109. Will "Vote" or "Voter" or "Votes" be in the headlines this week?: Yes89%Sun 27 Sept
  110. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No95%Wed 4 Nov
  111. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No94%Sat 31 Oct
  112. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  113. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  114. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane54%Sat 31 Oct
  115. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No57%Sat 3 Oct
  116. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party93%Tue 3 Nov
  117. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen34%Fri 30 Apr
  118. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No73%Tue 3 Nov
  119. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes67%Tue 3 Nov
  120. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No95%Wed 18 Nov
  121. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes58%Tue 1 Dec
  122. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No61%Tue 1 Dec
  123. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep61%Tue 3 Nov
  124. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3084%Thu 1 Oct
  125. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms19%Sat 10 Oct
  126. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot54%Thu 31 Dec
  127. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)98%Wed 30 Sept
  128. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  129. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes90%Sun 15 Nov
  130. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No91%Sun 15 Nov
  131. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  132. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No98%Tue 3 Nov
  133. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro68%Sun 4 Oct
  134. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes76%Wed 4 Nov
  135. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  136. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  137. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No58%Wed 4 Nov
  138. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  139. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party61%Tue 3 Nov
  140. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  141. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes91%Fri 2 Oct
  142. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli92%Sun 6 Dec
  143. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  144. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  145. Opus 5.2 released in September?: No87%Wed 30 Sept
  146. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro58%Thu 31 Dec
  147. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  148. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No88%Tue 3 Nov
  149. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes69%Tue 3 Nov
  150. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  151. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  152. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  153. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  154. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  155. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  156. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  157. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  158. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  159. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  160. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: Yes60%Tue 3 Nov
  161. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  162. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  163. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  164. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  165. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes61%Tue 3 Nov
  166. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  167. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  168. Trump out as President by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  169. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  170. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  171. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No87%Tue 3 Nov
  172. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  173. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  174. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  175. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  176. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No99%Wed 4 Nov
  177. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  178. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  179. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  180. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  181. AL-07 House Election Winner: Terri Sewell (D)86%Wed 4 Nov
  182. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No88%Wed 30 Sept
  183. Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 100.00 USDC Base by September 21th 11:59 pm UTC: Yes80%Mon 21 Sept
  184. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No65%Mon 30 Nov
  185. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  186. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers29%Sat 31 Oct
  187. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  188. Will Matt Gaetz become the next Governor of Florida in 2026?: No99%Thu 26 Nov
  189. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  190. US Average Gas Price Is $4.5500 or more on September 21 2026?: No99%Mon 21 Sept
  191. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 495%Fri 1 Jan
  192. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Nashville SC19%Sat 19 Dec
  193. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass63%Thu 31 Dec
  194. US Average Gas Price Is $4.5000 or more on September 21 2026?: No98%Mon 21 Sept
  195. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes61%Mon 23 Nov
  196. Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?: Yes81%Thu 1 Oct
  197. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202697%Fri 1 Jan
  198. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  199. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  200. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No57%Sun 27 Sept
  201. Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?: Yes87%Thu 1 Oct
  202. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic59%Thu 31 Dec
  203. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes92%Wed 14 Oct
  204. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA72%Thu 31 Dec
  205. Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  206. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  207. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 21?: No91%Mon 21 Sept
  208. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No72%Fri 1 Jan
  209. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  210. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No95%Mon 2 Nov
  211. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Buffalo Bills11%Wed 31 Mar
  213. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  214. US recession by end of 2026?: No94%Sun 31 Jan
  215. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula46%Fri 2 Oct
  216. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes83%Wed 30 Sept
  217. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No90%Mon 4 Jan
  218. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  219. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  220. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No72%Fri 1 Jan
  221. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: Yes68%Fri 1 Jan
  222. Anthropic IPO in October?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  223. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026?: No83%Tue 29 Sept
  224. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  225. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  226. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  227. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes83%Wed 28 Oct
  228. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No72%Tue 6 Oct
  229. UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion: Barcelona19%Sun 30 May
  230. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes90%Wed 14 Oct
  231. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes69%Mon 30 Nov
  232. US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  233. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  234. Next Prime Minister of Romania?: Sorin Grindeanu30%Thu 31 Dec
  235. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  236. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No66%Tue 13 Oct
  237. 🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨: No77%Mon 2 Nov
  238. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  239. Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  240. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  241. US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on September 21 2026?: Yes99%Mon 21 Sept
  242. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  243. MLB: Home Runs Leader: Kyle Schwarber78%Sun 11 Oct
  244. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Renan Santos53%Sun 4 Oct
  245. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes98%Sun 6 Dec
  246. EPL: 2027 Champion: Arsenal45%Sun 30 May
  247. Will Seth Bodnar win Montanas Senate Election?: No91%Tue 3 Nov
  248. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: Yes55%Wed 4 Nov
  249. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  250. Will Shohei Ohtani hit at least 43 home runs in 2026?: No99%Sun 27 Sept
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.