55%Three crypto token launches failed as Bitcoin hit $100k29%Édouard Philippe won the 2027 French Presidential election70%Moonshot AI's Kimi launched IPO as OpenAI's valuation did not materialize13%Barcelona won LALIGA title41%Dolly Parton topped US Google searches for Passing in 202661%Fed finished 2026 at 4.25% after two hikes52%Anthropic topped 2026 AI model rankings while OpenAI stayed under $2 trillion88%Bitcoin held above $82,000 on October 165%Five 2026 token launches missed one-day valuation targets86%Mojtaba Khamenei remained Iran's leader through 202694%Putin, Zelenskyy and Trump remained presidents through 202656%Democrats secured control of house and senate in 2026 Midterms

AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Thursday, 1 October 2026
Edition of Friday, 1 October 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Thu 1 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Friday, 1 October 2027.

Crypto

Three crypto token launches failed as Bitcoin hit $100k

LI.FI, Chaos Labs and Relay missed their token dates while Bitcoin reached $100,000.

55% certain
lead market 55%next 45%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Oct

In early October, three crypto projects failed to issue their promised tokens. The missed launches contrasted with Bitcoin's climb to $100,000 by the end of September. At the same time, the latest GPT Sol model posted a score of 40% or higher on its debut.

LI.FI had pledged to release a token by march 31, 2027. The result confirmed that the launch did not occur as scheduled.

Read the full report

Crypto

Bitcoin held above $82,000 on October 1

The currency stayed above $82,000 on Oct. 1, avoided a $78,000 dip the next week and never hit $250,000 in 2026.

88% certain
lead market 88%next 49%1 venuesettles Mon 5 Oct

World

Olivia Chow won Toronto Mayoral race

Olivia Chow won Toronto mayoralty and Mark Sutcliffe won Ottawa mayoralty.

59% certain
lead market 59%next 29%1 venuesettles Sun 18 Oct

Economics

US headline CPI rose 0.3% in September

September CPI increased 0.3% month-over-month while monthly CPI rose 0.6% and China's annual CPI hovered around 1%.

44% certain
lead market 44%next 35%1 venuesettles Thu 15 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro58%Mon 5 Oct
  2. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  3. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot47%Wed 28 Oct
  4. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No61%Sat 3 Oct
  5. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)95%Fri 1 Jan
  6. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No65%Tue 1 Dec
  7. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party92%Wed 4 Nov
  8. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes62%Tue 1 Dec
  9. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  10. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen38%Mon 19 Apr
  11. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep63%Wed 4 Nov
  12. Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)61%Wed 4 Nov
  13. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes94%Sun 15 Nov
  14. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei88%Thu 31 Dec
  15. Michigan Senate Election Winner: Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%Wed 4 Nov
  16. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No94%Sun 15 Nov
  17. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  18. Trump out as President before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  19. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  20. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro69%Mon 5 Oct
  21. Ohio Senate Election Winner: Sherrod Brown (D)60%Wed 4 Nov
  22. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party63%Wed 4 Nov
  23. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA78%Fri 1 Jan
  24. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  25. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: Yes61%Tue 3 Nov
  26. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes61%Tue 3 Nov
  27. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%63%Fri 1 Jan
  28. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  29. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  30. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  31. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  32. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  33. New Hampshire Senate Election Winner: Chris Pappas (D)86%Wed 4 Nov
  34. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  35. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes61%Mon 23 Nov
  36. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: Yes56%Wed 4 Nov
  37. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No78%Tue 5 Jan
  39. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase73%Wed 9 Dec
  40. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  41. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  42. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ96%Tue 6 Oct
  43. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 1?: Yes92%Thu 1 Oct
  44. LALIGA: 2027 Champion: Barcelona76%Tue 15 Jun
  45. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No73%Fri 1 Jan
  47. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  48. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic52%Thu 31 Dec
  49. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Google71%Sat 31 Oct
  50. Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No65%Fri 1 Jan
  51. Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  52. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No88%Sun 1 Nov
  53. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  54. Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No76%Fri 1 Jan
  55. Elon Musk # tweets September 25 - October 2, 2026?: 180-19934%Fri 2 Oct
  56. Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?: No76%Sat 3 Oct
  57. Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  58. Will Muse rank #1 in App Store (iPhone) on October 1st 2026: Yes92%Thu 1 Oct
  59. Jair Bolsonaro leaves Brazilian jurisdiction before October 4th 2026?: No97%Sat 3 Oct
  60. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  61. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)61%Thu 31 Dec
  62. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar58%Wed 28 Oct
  63. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won: PL97%Mon 5 Oct
  64. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes79%Tue 5 Jan
  65. StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  66. Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?: Yes72%Fri 1 Jan
  67. Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 28-October 4?: Yes88%Mon 5 Oct
  68. Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes82%Thu 10 Dec
  69. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?: No90%Tue 5 Jan
  70. ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: No change90%Fri 30 Oct
  71. Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  72. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  73. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?: No87%Thu 31 Dec
  74. Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 September 28-October 4?: No92%Mon 5 Oct
  75. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No97%Fri 29 Jan
  76. Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?: Yes72%Fri 1 Jan
  77. Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  78. StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  79. Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place: Bia Kicis83%Mon 5 Oct
  80. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-2435%Wed 28 Oct
  81. Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  82. Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?: No100%Tue 27 Oct
  83. Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner: Pete Fry64%Sun 18 Oct
  84. São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place: Guilherme Derrite77%Mon 5 Oct
  85. # of views of MrBeast Gaming video week 1?: 30–35M73%Sat 3 Oct
  86. Bank of Canada Decision in October?: No Change63%Wed 28 Oct
  87. Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner: PL65%Mon 5 Oct
  88. Will the date for the next Israeli legislative election be postponed?: No98%Tue 27 Oct
  89. São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place: André do Prado67%Mon 5 Oct
  90. Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes95%Wed 14 Oct
  91. Next Premier of Quebec: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon94%Tue 6 Oct
  92. Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner: Mark Sutcliffe91%Tue 27 Oct
  93. Toronto Mayoral Election Winner: Olivia Chow88%Tue 27 Oct
  94. Lula vencerá as eleicões presidenciais em 4 de Outubro de 2026?: No90%Sun 4 Oct
  95. "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office: <17m92%Sun 4 Oct
  96. Ligue 1: 2027 Champion: Monaco55%Tue 15 Jun
  97. Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No91%Mon 19 Apr
  98. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%45%Thu 15 Oct
  99. Will Drake release a new album by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  100. Bank of Israel Decision in October?: No Change87%Wed 21 Oct
  101. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.6%50%Thu 15 Oct
  102. Lula participates in debate before first round?: No99%Sat 3 Oct
  103. Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Zac de Vries63%Sun 18 Oct
  104. Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?: Yes96%Sun 4 Oct
  105. #1 Searched Passing on Google in the US 2026?: Dolly Parton63%Thu 1 Apr
  106. UEFA Europa League: 2027 Champion: Juventus13%Sun 30 May
  107. Winnipeg Mayoral Election: Scott Gillingham64%Thu 29 Oct
  108. #2 Spotify song in the US this week? (October 2): Cleveland! - Taylor Swift97%Fri 2 Oct
  109. Richmond Mayoral Election: Rob Howard59%Sun 18 Oct
  110. Israel election: will Likud lose seats?: Yes94%Wed 28 Oct
  111. #1 Searched Actor on Google 2026?: Inde Navarrette49%Thu 1 Apr
  112. "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office: 28m+76%Sun 4 Oct
  113. Surrey Mayoral Election: Brenda Locke78%Sun 18 Oct
  114. Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No89%Sun 18 Apr
  115. Central Bank of Colombia decision in October: No change44%Fri 30 Oct
  116. Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.4%56%Thu 15 Oct
  117. Will "Digger" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: No89%Mon 5 Oct
  118. Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes92%Thu 1 Jul
  119. What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?: did not happen97%Thu 1 Jul
  120. Vaughan, ON Mayoral Election Winner: Steven Del Duca92%Tue 27 Oct
  121. Markham, ON Mayoral Election Winner: Frank Scarpitti91%Tue 27 Oct
  122. Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No94%Thu 1 Jul
  123. #1 Searched Athlete on Google 2026?: Erling Braut Haaland41%Thu 1 Apr
  124. Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027?: No66%Thu 1 Jul
  125. Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No51%Thu 1 Jul
  126. Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No95%Mon 19 Apr
  127. Core CPI MoM - September 2026: 0.2%44%Thu 15 Oct
  128. Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No97%Sat 17 Apr
  129. Digger · Rotten Tomatoes score: Above 4086%Fri 2 Oct
  130. September Inflation China - Annual: 0.9% to 1.0%60%Wed 14 Oct
  131. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes94%Thu 1 Jul
  132. Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 10: Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley96%Wed 7 Oct
  133. PPI YoY - September 2026: 5.9%+87%Fri 16 Oct
  134. Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes71%Thu 1 Jul
  135. Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: Yes89%Mon 19 Apr
  136. Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?: No64%Thu 1 Jul
  137. Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No70%Thu 1 Jul
  138. Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No89%Sun 18 Apr
  139. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No57%Mon 19 Apr
  140. Will François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No94%Mon 19 Apr
  141. Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes61%Thu 1 Jul
  142. Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No90%Sun 18 Apr
  143. Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No96%Sun 18 Apr
  144. Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No74%Thu 1 Jul
  145. Primeira Liga: 2027 Champion: Porto52%Tue 15 Jun
  146. Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes56%Thu 1 Jul
  147. Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No96%Sun 18 Apr
  148. Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?: No95%Sun 18 Apr
  149. Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027?: No71%Thu 1 Jul
  150. Ligue 1: Top Goalscorer 2026-27: Ferran Torres20%Mon 31 May
  151. UEFA Nations League Winner 2026-27: Spain32%Mon 14 Jun
  152. Will QFEX launch a token by September 30, 2027?: No55%Fri 1 Oct
  153. Will LI.FI launch a token by March 31, 2027?: No95%Thu 1 Apr
  154. Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes88%Sun 18 Apr
  155. Will Bally Bagayoko be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No95%Sun 18 Apr
  156. Winner of France’s presidential election: Édouard Philippe29%Thu 1 Apr
  157. Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2027?: No59%Thu 1 Jul
  158. Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?: Yes88%Wed 30 Jun
  159. Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2027?: Yes67%Fri 1 Oct
  160. Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027?: No66%Thu 1 Apr
  161. Will Neutrl launch a token by June 30, 2027?: No61%Thu 1 Jul
  162. Will Betmoar launch a token by March 31, 2027?: No76%Thu 1 Apr
  163. Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2027?: No56%Thu 1 Jul
  164. Will LI.FI launch a token by September 30, 2027?: No88%Fri 1 Oct
  165. Will Chaos Labs launch a token by September 30, 2027?: No83%Fri 1 Oct
  166. Will Kimi (Moonshot AI) IPO by March 31, 2027?: Yes70%Thu 1 Apr
  167. Will LI.FI launch a token by June 30, 2027?: No90%Thu 1 Jul
  168. Will Bloomberg IPO by March 31, 2027?: No94%Thu 1 Apr
  169. Bank of Japan interest rate decision — October 2026: No change83%Fri 30 Oct
  170. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Wed 4 Nov
  171. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No95%Wed 4 Nov
  172. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No94%Sat 31 Oct
  173. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  174. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  175. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes60%Wed 4 Nov
  176. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Lamine Yamal43%Sat 31 Oct
  177. Fed Decision in October?: No change65%Thu 29 Oct
  178. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes71%Tue 3 Nov
  179. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No70%Tue 3 Nov
  180. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No95%Wed 18 Nov
  181. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms17%Sat 10 Oct
  182. Annie Andrews wins South Carolina US Senate election?: No87%Tue 3 Nov
  183. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No98%Tue 3 Nov
  184. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  185. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes75%Wed 4 Nov
  186. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No63%Wed 4 Nov
  187. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  188. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  189. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  190. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  191. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  192. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro70%Thu 31 Dec
  193. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  194. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No88%Tue 3 Nov
  195. Iowa Senate Election Winner: Ashley Hinson (R)59%Wed 4 Nov
  196. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No69%Wed 4 Nov
  197. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No92%Tue 3 Nov
  198. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  199. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli92%Sun 6 Dec
  200. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  201. TN-04 House Election Winner: Scott DesJarlais (R)89%Wed 4 Nov
  202. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  203. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  204. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  205. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  206. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No95%Fri 2 Oct
  207. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes98%Sat 31 Oct
  208. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  209. Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?: No meeting before 202792%Fri 1 Jan
  210. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  211. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day93%Fri 8 Jan
  213. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No99%Wed 4 Nov
  214. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No85%Mon 30 Nov
  215. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  216. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  217. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  218. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  219. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: Yes97%Sun 1 Nov
  220. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  221. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  222. Will Matt Gaetz become the next Governor of Florida in 2026?: No99%Thu 26 Nov
  223. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  224. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No91%Tue 6 Oct
  225. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  226. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers29%Sat 31 Oct
  227. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  228. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes93%Wed 14 Oct
  229. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: SpaceX51%Thu 31 Dec
  230. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  231. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  232. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No95%Mon 2 Nov
  233. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  234. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Vancouver Whitecaps FC29%Fri 1 Jan
  235. Anthropic IPO in October?: No96%Sat 31 Oct
  236. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No96%Fri 30 Oct
  237. Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  238. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Renan Santos52%Mon 5 Oct
  239. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro56%Fri 2 Oct
  240. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  241. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Buffalo Bills13%Thu 1 Apr
  242. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  243. Wales vs. Norway: Norway74%Thu 1 Oct
  244. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes80%Wed 28 Oct
  245. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  246. US recession by end of 2026?: No91%Sun 31 Jan
  247. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes90%Wed 14 Oct
  248. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes72%Mon 30 Nov
  249. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  250. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No66%Tue 13 Oct
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.