38%Marine Le Pen won the 2027 French Presidential election71%OpenAI valuation stayed under $2 trillion72%Chiang Wan-an won Taipei mayoralty62%Metamask, Puffpaw and Extended missed high FDV targets60%Russia struck Kyiv on October 12, 202694%Incumbents remained in power through 202683%Iranian regime remained in power through 202632%22 to 23 Republican Governors remained after 2026 Midterms59%Democrats seized house and won dozens of state senate seats52%Democrats won five governorships as Republicans held Florida and Georgia80%US-Iran cease-fire held as diplomatic deadlock persisted84%US blockade of Iranian shipping persisted through October

AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 7 October 2026
Edition of Thursday, 7 October 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 7 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Thursday, 7 October 2027.

Politics

Marine Le Pen won the 2027 French Presidential election

She was confirmed on the ballot and reached the second round.

38% certain
lead market 38%next 15%1 venuesettles Mon 19 Apr

Marine Le Pen secured the presidency in the 2027 French election. The final count placed her ahead of Édouard Philippe, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and David Lisnard. Her victory concluded the two-round voting process.

Her inclusion completed the list of candidates for the first round. The ballot listed all qualified candidates for the first round.

Read the full report

Economics

Germany's Q3 2026 GDP grew at least 1.3%

China's Q3 2026 GDP expanded between 4.3% and 4.6%; September inflation eased to around 1%.

29% certain
lead market 29%next 29%1 venuesettles Fri 30 Oct

Culture

Taylor Swift's 'Patient Zero' topped Hot 100

The Life of a Showgirl: the Encore claimed the Billboard 200 crown, while Haunted Hotel: season 2 ranked second globally on Netflix.

29% certain
lead market 29%next 19%1 venuesettles Tue 13 Oct

Politics

White House posted over 200 items in a week

The White House posted over 200 items while Trump's approval fell to 37-38 percent and senate Democrats held a 64-66 percent advantage.

44% certain
lead market 44%next 42%1 venuesettles Fri 9 Oct

Politics

Tomáš Portlík elected Mayor of Prague

Tomáš Portlík became Prague's Mayor and Miroslava Ferancová took office in Olomouc on Saturday.

51% certain
lead market 51%next 49%1 venuesettles Sat 10 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Fed Decision in October?: No change83%Thu 29 Oct
  3. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot48%Wed 28 Oct
  4. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  5. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  6. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party92%Wed 4 Nov
  7. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep64%Wed 4 Nov
  8. Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)64%Wed 4 Nov
  9. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  10. Maine Senate Election Winner: Troy Jackson (D)60%Wed 4 Nov
  11. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen38%Mon 19 Apr
  12. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei86%Thu 31 Dec
  13. Michigan Senate Election Winner: Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%Wed 4 Nov
  14. Trump out as President before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  15. Ohio Senate Election Winner: Sherrod Brown (D)60%Wed 4 Nov
  16. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party65%Wed 4 Nov
  17. Wisconsin Governor Election Winner: David Crowley (D)81%Wed 4 Nov
  18. Iowa Senate Election Winner: Ashley Hinson (R)59%Wed 4 Nov
  19. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  20. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  21. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  22. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes90%Sat 31 Oct
  23. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  24. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  25. New Hampshire Senate Election Winner: Chris Pappas (D)88%Wed 4 Nov
  26. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No84%Sun 1 Nov
  27. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  28. Nevada Governor Election Winner: Aaron Ford (D)53%Wed 4 Nov
  29. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  30. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Google69%Sat 31 Oct
  31. North Carolina Senate Election Winner: Roy Cooper (D)95%Wed 4 Nov
  32. Georgia Senate Election Winner: Jon Ossoff (D) 96%Wed 4 Nov
  33. Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola73%Wed 4 Nov
  34. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  35. Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  36. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?: No97%Sun 1 Nov
  37. Iowa Governor Election Winner: Rob Sand (D)82%Wed 4 Nov
  38. Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?: 180-19941%Fri 9 Oct
  39. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes65%Wed 4 Nov
  40. Georgia Governor Election Winner: Rick Jackson (R)52%Wed 4 Nov
  41. South Carolina Senate Election Winner: Darline Graham Nordone (R)85%Wed 4 Nov
  42. US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  43. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  44. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar51%Wed 28 Oct
  45. Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Chiang Wan-an72%Sun 29 Nov
  47. Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  48. ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: No change81%Fri 30 Oct
  49. Nebraska Senate Election Winner : Pete Ricketts (R)72%Wed 4 Nov
  50. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  51. GPT-6.1+ Astra released in October?: No76%Sat 31 Oct
  52. Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?: Yes62%Fri 1 Jan
  53. Arizona Governor Election Winner: Katie Hobbs (D)90%Wed 4 Nov
  54. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-2436%Wed 28 Oct
  55. Florida Governor Election Winner: Byron Donalds (R) 78%Wed 4 Nov
  56. Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  57. How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?: 22–2332%Wed 4 Nov
  58. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No94%Tue 3 Nov
  59. Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  60. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?: No92%Fri 16 Oct
  61. Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 10, 2026?: No60%Sun 11 Oct
  62. Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy): No80%Sat 31 Oct
  63. Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  64. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  65. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?: No80%Tue 5 Jan
  66. Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?: No71%Fri 1 Jan
  67. Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?: No89%Sat 31 Oct
  68. Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  69. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%45%Thu 15 Oct
  70. Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  71. Bank of Canada Decision in October?: No Change78%Wed 28 Oct
  72. Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8?: Yes64%Fri 9 Oct
  73. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No89%Sun 29 Nov
  74. Will Tim Walz Finish his term as Governor of Minnesota?: Yes98%Mon 4 Jan
  75. Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?: Yes67%Tue 13 Oct
  76. China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?: 4.3-4.6%74%Tue 20 Oct
  77. Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026: 0.8-1.1%44%Fri 30 Oct
  78. IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  79. US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?: Yes92%Fri 9 Oct
  80. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  81. Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 1.3%+43%Fri 30 Oct
  82. Elon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?: No99%Thu 5 Nov
  83. South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?: 2.5–2.9%36%Wed 28 Oct
  84. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.6%40%Thu 15 Oct
  85. Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?: No85%Sun 1 Nov
  86. Florida Redistricting Before 2026 Midterms?: Yes99%Tue 3 Nov
  87. September Inflation China - Annual: 0.9% to 1.0%57%Wed 14 Oct
  88. Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 2.0-2.5%29%Fri 30 Oct
  89. Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 10, 2026?: No94%Sun 11 Oct
  90. Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of October 17: Patient Zero - Taylor Swift91%Tue 13 Oct
  91. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes71%Wed 28 Oct
  92. Central Bank of Colombia decision in October: No change46%Fri 30 Oct
  93. US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  94. OpenAI resumes training on...?: Not resumed by October 2053%Sun 11 Oct
  95. Bank of Israel Decision in October?: No Change91%Wed 21 Oct
  96. Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.5%47%Thu 15 Oct
  97. Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes91%Thu 1 Jul
  98. Core CPI MoM - September 2026: 0.2%37%Thu 15 Oct
  99. Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 2 - October 9, 2026?: 140-15929%Fri 9 Oct
  100. Will Pentagon get $200 billion in funds for the Iran War before the 2026 midterms?: No95%Mon 2 Nov
  101. Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?: 40-45%44%Thu 8 Oct
  102. Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes91%Thu 1 Jul
  103. Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes73%Thu 1 Jul
  104. Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory: Labour 15%+38%Thu 8 Oct
  105. Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes88%Thu 1 Jul
  106. White House # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?: 200+72%Tue 13 Oct
  107. Next Mayor of Prague: Tomáš Portlík94%Sat 10 Oct
  108. How many dissent at the October Fed meeting?: 330%Wed 28 Oct
  109. Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: Yes91%Mon 19 Apr
  110. Democratic Senate odds on October 9?: 64-66%44%Fri 9 Oct
  111. Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes63%Thu 1 Jul
  112. Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $65 Week of October 5 2026?: No83%Fri 9 Oct
  113. Khamenei # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026?: <592%Fri 9 Oct
  114. Zelenskyy # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026?: 80-9946%Fri 9 Oct
  115. Next Mayor of Olomouc: Miroslava Ferancová88%Sat 10 Oct
  116. Next Mayor of Brno: Kamila Zlatušková51%Sat 10 Oct
  117. How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5?: 25-2928%Mon 12 Oct
  118. Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $99.50 on October 8, 2026?: No83%Thu 8 Oct
  119. Billboard 200 #1 Album Week of October 17: The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore98%Tue 13 Oct
  120. Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share?: 30-35%52%Thu 8 Oct
  121. Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: 3rd Place: Peter Newman38%Fri 9 Oct
  122. Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 Week of October 5 2026?: No83%Fri 9 Oct
  123. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of October 5 2026?: No91%Fri 9 Oct
  124. NYC Mayor # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026?: 20-3992%Fri 9 Oct
  125. Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of October 5 2026?: No65%Fri 9 Oct
  126. Trump approval rating on October 9?: 37.0–37.447%Sat 10 Oct
  127. Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.50 Week of October 5 2026?: No78%Fri 9 Oct
  128. Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of October 5 2026?: No80%Fri 9 Oct
  129. Next Mayor of Plzeň: Roman Zarzycký87%Sat 10 Oct
  130. How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 5?: 190-20948%Mon 12 Oct
  131. Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of October 5 2026?: No96%Fri 9 Oct
  132. WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on October 7?: Yes89%Wed 7 Oct
  133. Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 5 2026?: No73%Fri 9 Oct
  134. What will be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (October 13): Haunted Hotel: Season 229%Tue 13 Oct
  135. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane45%Sat 31 Oct
  136. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)94%Fri 1 Jan
  137. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  138. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms18%Sat 10 Oct
  139. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  140. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  141. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  142. Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  143. US recession by end of 2026?: No93%Sun 31 Jan
  144. VA-05 House Election Winner: John McGuire (R)90%Wed 4 Nov
  145. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  146. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro69%Thu 31 Dec
  147. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day90%Fri 8 Jan
  148. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  149. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No71%Wed 4 Nov
  150. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  151. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%66%Fri 1 Jan
  152. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  153. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli97%Sun 6 Dec
  154. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  155. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  156. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  157. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  158. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 477%Fri 1 Jan
  159. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  160. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  161. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  162. Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes78%Thu 10 Dec
  163. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No81%Tue 5 Jan
  164. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  165. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  166. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase73%Wed 9 Dec
  167. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  168. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  169. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  170. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No98%Wed 18 Nov
  171. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes90%Sat 31 Oct
  172. Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  173. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  174. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers37%Sat 31 Oct
  175. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA86%Fri 1 Jan
  176. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No96%Wed 4 Nov
  177. Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  178. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  179. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic54%Thu 31 Dec
  180. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  181. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No97%Mon 30 Nov
  182. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  183. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No94%Mon 4 Jan
  184. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  185. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  186. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Los Angeles Rams12%Thu 1 Apr
  187. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  188. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No67%Fri 1 Jan
  189. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro75%Sun 25 Oct
  190. All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?: No94%Thu 31 Dec
  191. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  192. UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion: Barcelona22%Sun 30 May
  193. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  194. EPL: 2027 Champion: Arsenal59%Sun 30 May
  195. Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  196. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202699%Fri 1 Jan
  197. NY-13 House Election Margin of Victory: Democrat 65-70%58%Wed 4 Nov
  198. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 7?: Yes92%Wed 7 Oct
  199. Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?: Yes99%Fri 1 Jan
  200. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: Yes61%Fri 1 Jan
  201. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  202. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  203. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  204. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  205. Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  206. Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  207. Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  208. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic46%Thu 31 Dec
  209. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  210. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No76%Fri 1 Jan
  211. Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?: No meeting before 202792%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  213. Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  214. Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?: China75%Fri 1 Jan
  215. Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  216. NBA: 2027 Champion: San Antonio Spurs26%Thu 1 Jul
  217. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  218. Will GameStop acquire eBay?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  219. Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  220. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: Aleksandar Vučić66%Sun 25 Oct
  221. Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  222. Bachelorette Season 22 Winner: Other (Season Cancelled)88%Mon 30 Nov
  223. LALIGA: 2027 Champion: Barcelona78%Tue 15 Jun
  224. S&P 500 up 100% in 2026?: No99%Thu 31 Dec
  225. Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 163%Thu 31 Dec
  226. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova91%Mon 26 Oct
  227. Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  228. Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]: No84%Sat 2 Jan
  229. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No71%Fri 1 Jan
  230. Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  231. Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  232. Kansas Senate Election Winner: Roger Marshall (R)64%Wed 4 Nov
  233. Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?: Yes81%Fri 1 Jan
  234. Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  235. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]: No99%Thu 31 Dec
  236. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No91%Thu 31 Dec
  237. Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  238. Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?: No88%Sun 1 Nov
  239. Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No60%Fri 1 Jan
  240. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes98%Thu 1 Apr
  241. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  242. Alaska Governor Election Winner : Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins77%Wed 4 Nov
  243. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  244. Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  245. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No66%Tue 1 Dec
  246. AI bubble burst in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  247. GTA 6 launch postponed again?: No96%Fri 20 Nov
  248. Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  249. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  250. Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?: No69%Thu 31 Dec
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.