21%Arsenal won title as City finished Runner-Up after 50-point deduction36%Marine Le Pen won the 2027 French Presidential election11%Barcelona won men's and women's Champions League titles24%Barcelona secured LALIGA title38%Spider-Man: Brand New Day topped 2026 box office61%Fed ended 2026 with benchmark rate at 4.0%69%Luca Niculescu became Romania's Prime Minister61%Democrats won control of house and senate in 2026 midterms86%Mojtaba Khamenei stayed Iran's supreme leader through 202654%SpaceX completed fewer than five Starship launches in 202673%Ceasefire survived October, nuclear deal failed31%Midterm elections proceeded as scheduled

AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Saturday, 10 October 2026
Edition of Sunday, 10 October 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sat 10 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Sunday, 10 October 2027.

Sports

Arsenal won title as City finished Runner-Up after 50-point deduction

Arsenal clinched the championship while Manchester City, docked over fifty points, missed Champions League qualification.

21% certain
lead market 21%next 20%1 venuesettles Sun 1 Aug

Arsenal secured the Premier League title on Sunday, finishing ahead of Manchester City. City ended the season as runners-Up despite being hit with a points deduction exceeding fifty points. The deduction left City out of the UEFA Champions League places for 2027-28.

The deduction, imposed on 1 July, amounted to more than fifty points, a penalty of unprecedented size. Even with that loss, City accumulated enough points to remain above the relegation zone. Their final standing placed them second in the league table.

Read the full report

Politics

Midterm elections proceeded as scheduled

Federal marijuana was not rescheduled before the vote and Republicans held 22 to 23 governorships.

31% certain
lead market 31%next 25%1 venuesettles Wed 4 Nov

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot44%Wed 28 Oct
  2. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)94%Fri 1 Jan
  3. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen36%Mon 19 Apr
  4. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei86%Thu 31 Dec
  5. Trump out as President before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  6. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  7. Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  8. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes87%Sat 31 Oct
  9. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day91%Fri 8 Jan
  10. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  11. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0%61%Fri 1 Jan
  12. Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes79%Thu 10 Dec
  13. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes90%Sat 31 Oct
  14. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase73%Wed 9 Dec
  15. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  16. UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion: Barcelona22%Sun 30 May
  17. EPL: 2027 Champion: Arsenal60%Sun 30 May
  18. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  19. Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026?: 340-35939%Tue 13 Oct
  20. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  21. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  22. LALIGA: 2027 Champion: Barcelona79%Tue 15 Jun
  23. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No65%Tue 1 Dec
  24. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes61%Tue 1 Dec
  25. Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Chiang Wan-an69%Sun 29 Nov
  26. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  27. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)70%Thu 31 Dec
  28. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Likud51%Wed 28 Oct
  29. Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?: No76%Fri 1 Jan
  30. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 25-2949%Wed 28 Oct
  31. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?: No91%Thu 31 Dec
  32. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day53%Mon 1 Feb
  33. Next Prime Minister of Romania?: Luca Niculescu97%Thu 31 Dec
  34. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes94%Sun 15 Nov
  35. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No97%Fri 29 Jan
  36. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  37. How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: <554%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No93%Sun 15 Nov
  39. How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?: 22–2331%Wed 4 Nov
  40. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No94%Tue 3 Nov
  41. Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy): No83%Sat 31 Oct
  42. Wil Trump be impeached by the House in 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  43. Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  44. Fed decisions (Sep–Dec): Hike–Pause–Hike66%Wed 9 Dec
  45. When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?: No release by November 188%Sun 11 Oct
  46. Ligue 1: 2027 Champion: Paris Saint-Germain86%Tue 15 Jun
  47. Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?: No99%Fri 29 Jan
  48. Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  49. Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?: No88%Fri 16 Oct
  50. Fed Decision in January?: No change93%Thu 28 Jan
  51. Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  52. Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  53. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%40%Thu 15 Oct
  54. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No97%Mon 2 Nov
  55. Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?: No84%Thu 31 Dec
  56. Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  57. #1 Searched Movie on Google 2026?: Obsession38%Thu 31 Dec
  58. Nigerian Presidential Election Winner: Bola Tinubu75%Sun 17 Jan
  59. Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No86%Mon 19 Apr
  60. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?: Anthropic82%Sun 1 Nov
  61. Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?: No78%Mon 4 Jan
  62. Bank of Russia decision in October?: No Change85%Sat 24 Oct
  63. US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?: Yes73%Wed 4 Nov
  64. Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?: Yes63%Sun 1 Nov
  65. Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  66. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.5%39%Thu 15 Oct
  67. Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 10, 2026?: No96%Sun 11 Oct
  68. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?: Anthropic52%Sat 31 Oct
  69. Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?: No release by October 3177%Tue 13 Oct
  70. Second-best AI Lab end of October?: Anthropic65%Sat 31 Oct
  71. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?: Anthropic66%Sat 31 Oct
  72. Will Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before October 12, 2026?: No96%Sun 11 Oct
  73. OpenAI resumes training on...?: Not resumed by October 2081%Wed 14 Oct
  74. Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?: Anthropic86%Sun 1 Nov
  75. UEFA Nations League Winner 2026-27: Spain35%Mon 14 Jun
  76. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?: Anthropic71%Sat 31 Oct
  77. Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.5%37%Thu 15 Oct
  78. US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?: No87%Sun 1 Nov
  79. English Premier League: Top Goalscorer 2026-27: Erling Haaland67%Mon 31 May
  80. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?: Anthropic80%Sat 31 Oct
  81. Core CPI MoM - September 2026: 0.2%43%Thu 15 Oct
  82. #3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 5?: Google78%Tue 13 Oct
  83. Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  84. Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?: Yes79%Tue 20 Oct
  85. UEFA Europa League: 2027 Champion: Benfica24%Sun 30 May
  86. Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?: 100-11923%Tue 13 Oct
  87. PPI YoY - September 2026: 5.9%+54%Fri 16 Oct
  88. Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?: No65%Thu 15 Oct
  89. Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?: No92%Sat 31 Oct
  90. Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?: No72%Thu 1 Jul
  91. Will Gemini 4 Argon be released publicly before October 15: No53%Wed 14 Oct
  92. Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?: No72%Sat 31 Oct
  93. Meta's Watermelon released on...?: No release by October 3129%Wed 14 Oct
  94. Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No95%Mon 19 Apr
  95. Primeira Liga: 2027 Champion: Porto57%Tue 15 Jun
  96. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes94%Thu 1 Jul
  97. Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes74%Thu 1 Jul
  98. Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No70%Thu 1 Jul
  99. Gemini Argon released on...?: October 1324%Wed 14 Oct
  100. How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5?: 30-3447%Mon 12 Oct
  101. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No70%Mon 19 Apr
  102. Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: Yes91%Mon 19 Apr
  103. Will Betis finish in the top 2 of the 2026-27 LaLiga season?: No99%Mon 14 Jun
  104. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?: No release by October 3123%Wed 14 Oct
  105. Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No82%Thu 1 Jul
  106. Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026?: No63%Thu 15 Oct
  107. Will Manchester City finish in the top 6 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?: Yes58%Mon 14 Jun
  108. UEFA Champions League: Top Scorer 2026-27: Kylian Mbappé11%Sat 19 Jun
  109. Khamenei # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?: 5-943%Fri 16 Oct
  110. Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?: No release by October 3156%Fri 16 Oct
  111. US headline inflation rate in September (month-over-month CPI): Above 0.4%62%Wed 14 Oct
  112. Zelenskyy # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?: 100-11938%Tue 13 Oct
  113. How many EPL points will Man City be deducted?: 50+32%Thu 1 Jul
  114. Ligue 1: Top Goalscorer 2026-27: Ferran Torres39%Mon 31 May
  115. UEFA Champions League: Most Assists 2026-27: Lamine Yamal11%Sat 19 Jun
  116. Will Hull City finish in the top 2 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?: No96%Mon 14 Jun
  117. Premier League: 2026-27 Runner-Up: Manchester City21%Sun 1 Aug
  118. Will Brentford finish in the top 6 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?: No78%Mon 14 Jun
  119. NYC Mayor # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?: 20-3983%Fri 16 Oct
  120. UEFA Women's Champions League 2026-27 Winner: Barcelona50%Mon 31 May
  121. Will Manchester City qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?: No56%Wed 1 Sept
  122. Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?: Yes70%Mon 14 Jun
  123. Ted Cruz # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?: 120-13935%Tue 13 Oct
  124. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra89%Wed 4 Nov
  125. Fed Decision in October?: No change83%Thu 29 Oct
  126. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  127. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  128. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane54%Sat 31 Oct
  129. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party91%Wed 4 Nov
  130. Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)62%Wed 4 Nov
  131. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep61%Wed 4 Nov
  132. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  133. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  134. Maine Senate Election Winner: Troy Jackson (D)59%Wed 4 Nov
  135. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  136. Michigan Senate Election Winner: Abdul El-Sayed (D)70%Wed 4 Nov
  137. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  138. US recession by end of 2026?: No93%Sun 31 Jan
  139. Ohio Senate Election Winner: Sherrod Brown (D)60%Wed 4 Nov
  140. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  141. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party63%Wed 4 Nov
  142. VA-05 House Election Winner: John McGuire (R)89%Wed 4 Nov
  143. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: Aleksandar Vučić61%Sun 25 Oct
  144. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro69%Thu 31 Dec
  145. Wisconsin Governor Election Winner: David Crowley (D)81%Wed 4 Nov
  146. Iowa Senate Election Winner: Ashley Hinson (R)58%Wed 4 Nov
  147. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  148. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No74%Wed 4 Nov
  149. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  150. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  151. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli96%Sun 6 Dec
  152. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  153. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  154. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  155. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  156. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No88%Sun 1 Nov
  157. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  158. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  159. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  160. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic55%Thu 31 Dec
  161. OpenAI IPO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  162. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  163. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  164. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 491%Fri 1 Jan
  165. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  166. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  167. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  168. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  169. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No81%Tue 5 Jan
  170. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  171. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  172. New Hampshire Senate Election Winner: Chris Pappas (D)88%Wed 4 Nov
  173. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  174. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  175. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No98%Wed 18 Nov
  176. Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  177. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  178. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  179. Nevada Governor Election Winner: Aaron Ford (D)53%Wed 4 Nov
  180. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  181. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA81%Fri 1 Jan
  182. Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  183. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Google71%Sat 31 Oct
  184. FL-20 House Election Margin of Victory: Democrat 45-50%56%Wed 4 Nov
  185. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  186. Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  187. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  188. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No97%Mon 30 Nov
  189. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No73%Fri 1 Jan
  190. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers42%Sat 31 Oct
  191. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  192. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No94%Mon 4 Jan
  193. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  194. All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?: No95%Thu 31 Dec
  195. North Carolina Senate Election Winner: Roy Cooper (D)95%Wed 4 Nov
  196. Georgia Senate Election Winner: Jon Ossoff (D) 96%Wed 4 Nov
  197. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Los Angeles Rams12%Thu 1 Apr
  198. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  199. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  200. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro79%Sun 25 Oct
  201. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  202. Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  203. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  204. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  205. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: Yes62%Fri 1 Jan
  206. Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola74%Wed 4 Nov
  207. Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?: Yes99%Fri 1 Jan
  208. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  209. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  210. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sat 31 Oct
  211. Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  213. Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  214. Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  215. Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  216. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  217. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  218. Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  219. Michigan Governor Election Winner: did not happen90%Wed 4 Nov
  220. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Google42%Thu 31 Dec
  221. Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  222. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No75%Fri 1 Jan
  223. Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  224. Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?: No meeting before 202792%Fri 1 Jan
  225. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 10?: Yes94%Sat 10 Oct
  226. Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  227. Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?: China75%Fri 1 Jan
  228. NBA: 2027 Champion: San Antonio Spurs21%Thu 1 Jul
  229. Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  230. Will GameStop acquire eBay?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  231. US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  232. Georgia Governor Election Winner: Rick Jackson (R)54%Wed 4 Nov
  233. S&P 500 up 100% in 2026?: No99%Thu 31 Dec
  234. Iowa Governor Election Winner: Rob Sand (D)84%Wed 4 Nov
  235. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No73%Fri 1 Jan
  236. Kansas Senate Election Winner: Roger Marshall (R)62%Wed 4 Nov
  237. Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]: No83%Sat 2 Jan
  238. South Carolina Senate Election Winner: Darline Graham Nordone (R)85%Wed 4 Nov
  239. Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 158%Thu 31 Dec
  240. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]: No99%Thu 31 Dec
  241. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No92%Thu 31 Dec
  242. Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  243. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova90%Mon 26 Oct
  244. Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?: Yes75%Fri 1 Jan
  245. Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  246. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes63%Wed 4 Nov
  247. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  248. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  249. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes98%Thu 1 Apr
  250. Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No56%Fri 1 Jan
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.