AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Thursday, 15 October 2026
Edition of Friday, 15 October 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Thu 15 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Friday, 15 October 2027.

Politics

Marine Le Pen won first round of 2027 French Presidential election

Jean-Luc Mélenchon placed third while Xavier Bertrand was excluded from the ballot.

33% certain
lead market 33%next 26%1 venuesettles Sun 18 Apr

Marine Le Pen topped the first round of the 2027 French Presidential election. Jean-Luc Mélenchon finished in third place. Mélenchon's third-place result meant he did not qualify for the second round. Xavier Bertrand was not listed among the candidates on the ballot.

The first round took place on Sunday 18 April. The vote count released that day confirmed Le Pen's victory and Mélenchon's third-place standing. The results set the composition of the runoff field.

Read the full report

World

U.S. did not invade Cuba in 2026

No U.S. strike occurred and the Cuban regime remained in power.

89% certain
lead market 89%next 12%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

World

Ukraine remained outside NATO in 2027

Ukraine stayed outside NATO and failed to regain Crimea while refusing territorial concessions to Russia.

95% certain
lead market 95%next 6%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

World

US-Iran ceasefire held through October 31

The ceasefire lasted through October 31 and no nuclear deal, Hormuz agreement or senior talks were reached.

76% certain
lead market 76%next 25%1 venuesettles Wed 4 Nov

World

Iran did not impose Hormuz fees

An Oman agreement on Hormuz and a Saudi-Houthi cease-fire also failed to materialise.

85% certain
lead market 85%next 15%1 venuesettles Sun 1 Nov

Politics|World

Gadi Eizenkot became Israel's Prime Minister

Ceasefires with Iran, Yemen and the U.S. persisted while Russia hit Kyiv and Israel attacked Lebanon.

49% certain
lead market 49%next 29%1 venuesettles Wed 28 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot49%Wed 28 Oct
  3. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party91%Wed 4 Nov
  4. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  5. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  6. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep62%Wed 4 Nov
  7. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)94%Fri 1 Jan
  8. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  9. Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)62%Wed 4 Nov
  10. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei89%Thu 31 Dec
  11. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes89%Sat 31 Oct
  12. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  13. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party63%Wed 4 Nov
  14. Michigan Senate Election Winner: Abdul El-Sayed (D)70%Wed 4 Nov
  15. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes92%Sat 31 Oct
  16. Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  17. Ohio Senate Election Winner: Sherrod Brown (D)60%Wed 4 Nov
  18. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  19. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  20. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  21. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  22. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  23. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  24. Wisconsin Governor Election Winner: David Crowley (D)81%Wed 4 Nov
  25. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase77%Wed 9 Dec
  26. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  27. US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?: Yes95%Thu 15 Oct
  28. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  29. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Google68%Sat 31 Oct
  30. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  31. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  32. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  33. Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes82%Thu 10 Dec
  34. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  35. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  36. Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola74%Wed 4 Nov
  37. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  38. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No94%Mon 4 Jan
  39. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  40. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  41. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  42. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  43. New Hampshire Senate Election Winner: Chris Pappas (D)87%Wed 4 Nov
  44. Nevada Governor Election Winner: Aaron Ford (D)51%Wed 4 Nov
  45. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Michigan Governor Election Winner: Jocelyn Benson (D)91%Wed 4 Nov
  47. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  48. US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  49. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No91%Thu 31 Dec
  50. Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  51. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  52. Iran leadership change by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  53. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  54. Iowa Governor Election Winner: Rob Sand (D)86%Wed 4 Nov
  55. Alaska Governor Election Winner : Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins77%Wed 4 Nov
  56. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?: No89%Sat 31 Oct
  57. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  58. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  59. US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?: No58%Mon 30 Nov
  60. Next Prime Minister of Romania?: Luca Niculescu98%Thu 31 Dec
  61. Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?: No98%Tue 20 Oct
  62. ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: No change93%Fri 30 Oct
  63. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)64%Thu 31 Dec
  64. US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  65. Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  66. Cuban regime falls in 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  67. Will Russia invade another country in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  68. Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  69. Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  70. Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  71. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No64%Tue 1 Dec
  72. Arizona Governor Election Winner: Katie Hobbs (D)89%Wed 4 Nov
  73. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  74. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  75. Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?: No69%Thu 31 Dec
  76. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes62%Tue 1 Dec
  77. US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?: Yes76%Wed 4 Nov
  78. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No97%Fri 29 Jan
  79. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No84%Wed 6 Jan
  80. Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?: Yes87%Sat 17 Oct
  81. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  82. Fed Decision in January?: No change56%Thu 28 Jan
  83. Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy): No93%Sat 31 Oct
  84. Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  85. Fed decisions (Sep–Dec): Hike–Pause–Hike63%Wed 9 Dec
  86. GPT-6.1+ Astra released in October?: No65%Sat 31 Oct
  87. Bank of Canada Decision in October?: No Change80%Wed 28 Oct
  88. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?: Yes86%Thu 31 Dec
  89. Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  90. GDP growth in 2026: 2.0–2.5%65%Fri 29 Jan
  91. Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  92. Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?: No97%Sun 1 Nov
  93. Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?: No83%Sat 31 Oct
  94. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes94%Sun 15 Nov
  95. Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?: No99%Fri 29 Jan
  96. Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  97. Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  98. Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?: Yes90%Fri 1 Jan
  99. Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  100. Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  101. Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  102. US imports Russian diesel by October 31?: No88%Sun 1 Nov
  103. Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  104. Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  105. Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  106. Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?: Shutdown & Democratic Party91%Mon 1 Feb
  107. Israel military action against Lebanon on October 15?: Yes81%Fri 16 Oct
  108. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?: Anthropic91%Sun 1 Nov
  109. Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?: No100%Sun 1 Nov
  110. China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?: 4.3-4.6%76%Wed 21 Oct
  111. Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?: Anthropic91%Sun 1 Nov
  112. Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026: 0.8-1.1%60%Fri 30 Oct
  113. South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?: 3.0–3.4%42%Wed 28 Oct
  114. Fed interest rate decision — October 2026: No change59%Wed 28 Oct
  115. Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 2.5-3.0%32%Fri 30 Oct
  116. Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On): Google71%Sat 31 Oct
  117. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?: Anthropic59%Sat 31 Oct
  118. Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?: No85%Sun 1 Nov
  119. Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory: Remain 40–60%53%Tue 20 Oct
  120. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?: Anthropic76%Sat 31 Oct
  121. Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM): 0.0 to 0.1%54%Fri 30 Oct
  122. UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?: 0.4–0.5%38%Fri 13 Nov
  123. Central Bank of Colombia decision in October: No change73%Fri 30 Oct
  124. Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October?: Google63%Sat 31 Oct
  125. Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No86%Sun 18 Apr
  126. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?: Anthropic99%Sat 31 Oct
  127. Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No71%Thu 1 Jul
  128. Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  129. Which company has the best Image Edit AI end of October?: OpenAI85%Sun 1 Nov
  130. OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026?: Yes75%Sun 1 Nov
  131. French Presidential Election First Round Winner: Marine Le Pen81%Sun 18 Apr
  132. Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes84%Thu 1 Jul
  133. 2026 Alberta referendum asks about secession from Canada?: No55%Mon 19 Oct
  134. Central Bank of Chile decision in October: No change88%Tue 27 Oct
  135. Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes82%Thu 1 Jul
  136. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No59%Mon 19 Apr
  137. Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No80%Thu 1 Jul
  138. Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes61%Thu 1 Jul
  139. French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Jean-Luc Mélenchon33%Sun 18 Apr
  140. Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No97%Thu 1 Jul
  141. Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin?: 32% to 34%76%Tue 20 Oct
  142. Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $70?: Yes67%Fri 16 Oct
  143. What will be the top global Netflix show this week? (October 20): Below: Limited Series93%Wed 21 Oct
  144. Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $72.50 Week of October 12 2026?: No68%Fri 16 Oct
  145. What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (October 20): Transformers One17%Wed 21 Oct
  146. Fed Decision in October?: No change75%Thu 29 Oct
  147. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane57%Sat 31 Oct
  148. VA-05 House Election Winner: John McGuire (R)90%Wed 4 Nov
  149. Trump out as President before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  150. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  151. Maine Senate Election Winner: Troy Jackson (D)59%Wed 4 Nov
  152. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  153. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen43%Mon 19 Apr
  154. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  155. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No76%Wed 4 Nov
  156. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  157. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: Aleksandar Vučić72%Sun 25 Oct
  158. US recession by end of 2026?: No93%Sun 31 Jan
  159. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%61%Fri 1 Jan
  160. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro70%Thu 31 Dec
  161. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA67%Fri 1 Jan
  162. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  163. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  164. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  165. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  166. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli97%Sun 6 Dec
  167. Iowa Senate Election Winner: Ashley Hinson (R)59%Wed 4 Nov
  168. Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?: No Hormuz Agreement95%Wed 4 Nov
  169. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  170. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  171. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  172. NY-13 House Election Margin of Victory: Democrat 65-70%56%Wed 4 Nov
  173. Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?: No100%Sun 1 Nov
  174. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  175. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  176. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No79%Tue 5 Jan
  177. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 497%Fri 1 Jan
  178. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No75%Fri 1 Jan
  179. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: SpaceX53%Thu 31 Dec
  180. Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?: No87%Sun 1 Nov
  181. Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?: No100%Sun 1 Nov
  182. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  183. Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner: Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia62%Sun 25 Oct
  184. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day95%Fri 8 Jan
  185. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sat 31 Oct
  186. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  187. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  188. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  189. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  190. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  191. OpenAI IPO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  192. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  193. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 15?: Yes90%Thu 15 Oct
  194. Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  195. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova86%Mon 26 Oct
  196. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  197. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory: Flávio Bolsonaro <4%39%Mon 26 Oct
  198. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  199. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  200. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: Yes60%Fri 1 Jan
  201. Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  202. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Milwaukee Brewers57%Sat 31 Oct
  203. South Carolina Senate Election Winner: Darline Graham Nordone (R)85%Wed 4 Nov
  204. Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  205. Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  206. Kansas Senate Election Winner: Roger Marshall (R)63%Wed 4 Nov
  207. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  208. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No98%Wed 18 Nov
  209. Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  210. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  211. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic44%Thu 31 Dec
  212. Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Chiang Wan-an63%Sun 29 Nov
  213. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  214. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: San Francisco 49ers12%Thu 1 Apr
  215. Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  216. Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?: No82%Sun 1 Nov
  217. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?: No85%Sun 1 Nov
  218. EPL: 2027 Champion: Arsenal62%Sun 30 May
  219. Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?: Yes80%Fri 1 Jan
  220. Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  221. UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion: Barcelona22%Sun 30 May
  222. LALIGA: 2027 Champion: Barcelona76%Tue 15 Jun
  223. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  224. Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?: Yes70%Fri 1 Jan
  225. Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  226. Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  227. Bachelorette Season 22 Winner: Other (Season Cancelled)88%Mon 30 Nov
  228. Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  229. Will GameStop acquire eBay?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  230. GTA 6 launch postponed again?: No95%Fri 20 Nov
  231. Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  232. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No96%Mon 30 Nov
  233. Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No60%Fri 1 Jan
  234. All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  235. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar60%Wed 28 Oct
  236. North Carolina Senate Election Winner: Roy Cooper (D)93%Wed 4 Nov
  237. Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  238. Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  239. Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?: China79%Fri 1 Jan
  240. Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?: No meeting before 202796%Fri 1 Jan
  241. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro79%Sun 25 Oct
  242. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  243. Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  244. StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  245. US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?: No63%Fri 1 Jan
  246. Texas Governor Election Winner: Greg Abbott (R)78%Wed 4 Nov
  247. US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  248. AI bubble burst in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  249. Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?: 320-33922%Fri 16 Oct
  250. NBA: 2027 Champion: San Antonio Spurs20%Thu 1 Jul
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.