62%OpenAI failed to IPO by mid-202721%Rebeca Grynspan appointed UN Secretary-general as Sweden forms solo government45%Marine Le Pen won the 2027 French Presidential election61%Extended surpassed $150M FDV as other launches missed targets87%Iran's leadership stayed under Mojtaba Khamenei in 202693%Putin, Trump, Zelenskyy, Lee and Milei stayed in office through 202689%U.S. did not invade or acquire Greenland in 202665%Iranian regime remained in power as US blockade persisted83%Key maritime chokepoints and airspaces remained open through October57%Democrats won control of house and senate57%Democrats win Georgia Senate seat52%Democrats secured nine governorships, leaving Republicans with only Texas

AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Friday, 16 October 2026
Edition of Saturday, 16 October 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Fri 16 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Saturday, 16 October 2027.

Economics

OpenAI failed to IPO by mid-2027

Kimi secured an IPO before June 30, 2027, and DeepSeek listed by September 30, 2027.

62% certain
lead market 62%next 39%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Oct

OpenAI did not complete an initial public offering at a $1.0-$1.25 trillion valuation. Kimi, the Moonshot AI venture, secured an IPO before June 30, 2027. DeepSeek also listed by September 30, 2027.

Kimi's public offering proceeded within the first half of 2027, meeting the June deadline. The filing satisfied investors seeking exposure to Moonshot AI's technology pipeline. The completion signaled confidence in the firm's growth trajectory.

Read the full report

Politics

Democrats won control of house and senate

Republicans lost the house while Oil prices above $80 accompanied the Democratic Senate win.

57% certain
lead market 57%next 31%1 venuesettles Wed 4 Nov

Politics

Democrats win Georgia Senate seat

Democrats also captured senate races in New Hampshire and Alaska, securing majorities in several swing-state legislatures.

57% certain
lead market 57%next 31%1 venuesettles Wed 4 Nov

Science

Google secured #1 AI model ranking in October

Anthropic led the AI Agent benchmark, while OpenAI did not launch any consumer hardware by the end of October.

45% certain
lead market 45%next 45%1 venuesettles Sat 31 Oct

World

Israel-Iran ceasefire held through October 2026

Israel kept the ceasefire with Iran through October, and refrained from accusing proxies or attacking Syria or Beirut.

76% certain
lead market 76%next 25%1 venuesettles Sat 31 Oct

Science

Apple unveiled foldable iPhone

Fable released its 5.2+ model and NVIDIA topped the global corporate rankings.

83% certain
lead market 83%next 13%1 venuesettles Sat 31 Oct

Politics

Elon Musk tweeted 340-359 times between Oct 9-16

Donald Trump posted over 200 Truth Social updates and the New York City Mayor posted between 20 and 39 messages in the same period.

31% certain
lead market 31%next 31%1 venuesettles Fri 16 Oct

Politics

Alberta voted to stay in Canada

The Referendum on 20 October saw 60% support staying in Canada.

53% certain
lead market 53%next 47%1 venuesettles Mon 19 Oct

Politics

Pete Fry elected mayor of Vancouver

New mayors also took office in Saanich, Kamloops and Richmond on the same day.

54% certain
lead market 54%next 46%1 venuesettles Sun 18 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Fed Decision in October?: No change84%Thu 29 Oct
  3. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party91%Wed 4 Nov
  4. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  5. Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)62%Wed 4 Nov
  6. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei87%Thu 31 Dec
  7. Trump out as President before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  8. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  9. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party63%Wed 4 Nov
  10. Maine Senate Election Winner: Troy Jackson (D)59%Wed 4 Nov
  11. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen45%Mon 19 Apr
  12. Michigan Senate Election Winner: Abdul El-Sayed (D)70%Wed 4 Nov
  13. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes89%Sat 31 Oct
  14. Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  15. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes89%Sat 31 Oct
  16. Ohio Senate Election Winner: Sherrod Brown (D)60%Wed 4 Nov
  17. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  18. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  19. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  20. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  21. Wisconsin Governor Election Winner: David Crowley (D)81%Wed 4 Nov
  22. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  23. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Google69%Sat 31 Oct
  24. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  25. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  26. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  27. Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola74%Wed 4 Nov
  28. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  29. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  30. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  31. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?: No100%Sun 1 Nov
  32. Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  33. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  34. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  35. New Hampshire Senate Election Winner: Chris Pappas (D)87%Wed 4 Nov
  36. Nevada Governor Election Winner: Aaron Ford (D)52%Wed 4 Nov
  37. Michigan Governor Election Winner: Jocelyn Benson (D)91%Wed 4 Nov
  38. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  40. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No75%Fri 1 Jan
  41. Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?: 340-35931%Fri 16 Oct
  42. Georgia Senate Election Winner: Jon Ossoff (D) 95%Wed 4 Nov
  43. Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  44. Iowa Governor Election Winner: Rob Sand (D)84%Wed 4 Nov
  45. Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No61%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?: Oil ≥ $80; D Senate57%Wed 4 Nov
  47. Alaska Governor Election Winner : Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins76%Wed 4 Nov
  48. US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?: No65%Fri 1 Jan
  49. US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  50. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  51. Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?: No97%Tue 20 Oct
  52. ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: No change95%Fri 30 Oct
  53. Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  54. Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  55. Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  56. Ohio Governor Election Winner: Amy Acton (D)72%Wed 4 Nov
  57. Georgia Governor Election Winner: Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)52%Wed 4 Nov
  58. Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  59. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  60. Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  61. Arizona Governor Election Winner: Katie Hobbs (D)89%Wed 4 Nov
  62. Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  63. US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes96%Sat 31 Oct
  64. Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?: Yes61%Fri 1 Jan
  65. US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?: Yes76%Wed 4 Nov
  66. Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  67. Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy): No95%Sat 31 Oct
  68. StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  69. Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  70. GPT-6.1+ Astra released in October?: No65%Sat 31 Oct
  71. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  72. Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?: No87%Sat 31 Oct
  73. Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  74. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?: Yes83%Sat 31 Oct
  75. Best Chinese AI Company end of October?: Xiaomi56%Sat 31 Oct
  76. Largest Company end of October 2026?: NVIDIA88%Sun 1 Nov
  77. Bank of Canada Decision in October?: No Change81%Wed 28 Oct
  78. Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner: Pete Fry61%Sun 18 Oct
  79. Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  80. StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  81. Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  82. Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  83. Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  84. Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  85. Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  86. Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  87. Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  88. Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?: No83%Sun 1 Nov
  89. Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?: No76%Sat 31 Oct
  90. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?: Anthropic89%Sun 1 Nov
  91. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  92. Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  93. Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?: Yes100%Sat 31 Oct
  94. #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On): Meta50%Sat 31 Oct
  95. Fed interest rate decision — October 2026: No change81%Wed 28 Oct
  96. Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?: Anthropic46%Sat 31 Oct
  97. Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Zac de Vries95%Sun 18 Oct
  98. Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October?: OpenAI59%Sat 31 Oct
  99. Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?: Anthropic95%Sun 1 Nov
  100. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?: Google45%Sat 31 Oct
  101. US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  102. Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?: OpenAI76%Sat 31 Oct
  103. Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?: 200+43%Tue 20 Oct
  104. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of October 12 2026?: No90%Fri 16 Oct
  105. Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory: Remain 40–60%60%Tue 20 Oct
  106. Kamloops, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Mike O'Reilly74%Sun 18 Oct
  107. Richmond Mayoral Election: Rob Howard60%Sun 18 Oct
  108. Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?: Alibaba81%Sat 31 Oct
  109. Kelowna Mayoral Election: Ron Cannan65%Sun 18 Oct
  110. What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?: did not happen93%Thu 1 Jul
  111. Central Bank of Colombia decision in October: No change74%Fri 30 Oct
  112. Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?: No56%Thu 1 Jul
  113. Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?: No90%Sat 31 Oct
  114. Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No87%Sun 18 Apr
  115. Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No73%Thu 1 Jul
  116. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of October 12 2026?: No94%Fri 16 Oct
  117. Coquitlam, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Craig Hodge95%Sat 17 Oct
  118. Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No93%Thu 1 Jul
  119. French Presidential Election First Round Winner: Marine Le Pen78%Sun 18 Apr
  120. Revelstoke, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Gary Sulz73%Sun 18 Oct
  121. Surrey Mayoral Election: did not happen96%Sun 18 Oct
  122. Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?: S21%Sun 1 Aug
  123. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?: Anthropic94%Sun 1 Nov
  124. Next Secretary-General of the United Nations: Rebeca Grynspan72%Thu 1 Jul
  125. Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?: No85%Wed 21 Oct
  126. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes69%Wed 28 Oct
  127. Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On): Google97%Sun 1 Nov
  128. Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.4 on October 16, 2026?: Yes80%Sat 17 Oct
  129. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?: Anthropic73%Sat 31 Oct
  130. White House # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?: 200+88%Tue 20 Oct
  131. Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026?: No100%Sun 18 Oct
  132. How many dissent at the October Fed meeting?: 137%Wed 28 Oct
  133. Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $55 Week of October 12 2026?: No95%Fri 16 Oct
  134. Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes82%Thu 1 Jul
  135. Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $59 Week of October 12 2026?: No90%Fri 16 Oct
  136. 2026 Alberta referendum asks about secession from Canada?: No53%Mon 19 Oct
  137. Prince George, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Kyle Sampson71%Sun 18 Oct
  138. Third-best AI Agent Lab end of October?: Google60%Sat 31 Oct
  139. Khamenei # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?: <589%Fri 16 Oct
  140. Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes83%Thu 1 Jul
  141. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No59%Mon 19 Apr
  142. Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No70%Thu 1 Jul
  143. Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes80%Thu 1 Jul
  144. Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: Yes89%Mon 19 Apr
  145. Democratic Senate odds on October 16?: 62-64%52%Fri 16 Oct
  146. Will François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No94%Mon 19 Apr
  147. Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No88%Thu 1 Jul
  148. Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No92%Sun 18 Apr
  149. Modi out by June 30, 2027?: No84%Thu 1 Jul
  150. How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?: 25-2933%Mon 19 Oct
  151. Ted Cruz # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?: 120-13961%Tue 20 Oct
  152. Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of October 12 2026?: No90%Fri 16 Oct
  153. How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?: 170-18950%Mon 19 Oct
  154. NYC Mayor # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?: 20-3996%Tue 20 Oct
  155. Zelenskyy # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?: 100-11970%Fri 16 Oct
  156. Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 12 2026?: No94%Fri 16 Oct
  157. Will DeepSeek IPO by September 30, 2027?: Yes62%Fri 1 Oct
  158. CZ # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?: 20-3965%Tue 20 Oct
  159. Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?: No84%Wed 30 Jun
  160. Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?: No84%Thu 1 Jul
  161. Trump approval rating on October 16?: 38.4+70%Sat 17 Oct
  162. Vernon, BC Mayoral Election Winner: did not happen54%Sun 18 Oct
  163. Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $70?: Yes85%Fri 16 Oct
  164. West Vancouver, BC Mayoral Election Winner: did not happen72%Sun 18 Oct
  165. What will be the top global Netflix show this week? (October 20): Below: Limited Series96%Wed 21 Oct
  166. Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin?: 32% to 34%61%Tue 20 Oct
  167. Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 17?: No75%Sun 18 Oct
  168. Will OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2027?: No66%Thu 1 Jul
  169. What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (October 20): Norm: The Tale of Norm Macdonald28%Wed 21 Oct
  170. Will Kimi (Moonshot AI) IPO by June 30, 2027?: Yes71%Thu 1 Jul
  171. What will be the top US Netflix show this week? (October 20): Below: Limited Series94%Wed 21 Oct
  172. What will be the top US Netflix movie this week? (October 20): Animals80%Wed 21 Oct
  173. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot49%Wed 28 Oct
  174. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  175. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  176. VA-05 House Election Winner: John McGuire (R)92%Wed 4 Nov
  177. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)97%Fri 1 Jan
  178. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane58%Sat 31 Oct
  179. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  180. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  181. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  182. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No76%Wed 4 Nov
  183. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  184. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: Aleksandar Vučić75%Sun 25 Oct
  185. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep62%Wed 4 Nov
  186. US recession by end of 2026?: No94%Sun 31 Jan
  187. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No97%Sun 1 Nov
  188. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 471%Fri 1 Jan
  189. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro71%Thu 31 Dec
  190. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%58%Fri 1 Jan
  191. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  192. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  193. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  194. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli97%Sun 6 Dec
  195. Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?: No Hormuz Agreement97%Wed 4 Nov
  196. Iowa Senate Election Winner: Ashley Hinson (R)59%Wed 4 Nov
  197. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  198. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase77%Wed 9 Dec
  199. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  200. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  201. KY-04 House Election Margin of Victory: Republican 20-25%58%Wed 4 Nov
  202. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  203. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  204. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  205. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  206. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No81%Tue 5 Jan
  207. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  208. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  209. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: SpaceX59%Thu 31 Dec
  210. OpenAI IPO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  211. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?: No100%Sun 1 Nov
  213. Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes80%Thu 10 Dec
  214. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day95%Fri 8 Jan
  215. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory: Flávio Bolsonaro <4%40%Mon 26 Oct
  216. Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  217. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  218. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  219. Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October?: No91%Sun 1 Nov
  220. Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner: Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia62%Sun 25 Oct
  221. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 16?: Yes92%Fri 16 Oct
  222. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sat 31 Oct
  223. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  224. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  225. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  226. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  227. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  228. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA67%Fri 1 Jan
  229. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Milwaukee Brewers65%Sat 31 Oct
  230. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova87%Mon 26 Oct
  231. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  232. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  233. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  234. Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?: No86%Sun 1 Nov
  235. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  236. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202699%Fri 1 Jan
  237. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: Yes60%Fri 1 Jan
  238. Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  239. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  240. South Carolina Senate Election Winner: Darline Graham Nordone (R)85%Wed 4 Nov
  241. Kansas Senate Election Winner: Roger Marshall (R)63%Wed 4 Nov
  242. Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  243. Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  244. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?: No82%Sun 1 Nov
  245. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No98%Wed 18 Nov
  246. Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Chiang Wan-an63%Sun 29 Nov
  247. Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  248. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  249. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  250. US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.