AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 21 October 2026
Edition of Thursday, 21 October 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 21 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Thursday, 21 October 2027.

Economics

Moonshot AI and DeepSeek went public in 2027

OpenAI stayed private while Fed Chair Warsh remained in office.

61% certain
lead market 61%next 40%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Oct

Two U.S. artificial-intelligence firms completed initial public offerings this year. Moonshot AI's Kimi and DeepSeek both listed shares on U.S. exchanges. OpenAI did not pursue an IPO, and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stayed in his post beyond mid-year.

Moonshot AI's Kimi secured its IPO before the June 30 deadline. The result was confirmed on Thursday, July 1, when the filing settled. The offering placed the company among the few AI startups to go public in the first half of 2027.

Read the full report

World

U.S. did not invade or strike Cuba in 2026

The United States refrained from military action against Cuba, and the Cuban government remained in power throughout 2026.

91% certain
lead market 91%next 10%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)63%Wed 4 Nov
  3. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party92%Wed 4 Nov
  4. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep63%Wed 4 Nov
  5. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)96%Fri 1 Jan
  6. Maine Senate Election Winner: Troy Jackson (D)63%Wed 4 Nov
  7. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei84%Thu 31 Dec
  8. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen40%Mon 19 Apr
  9. Michigan Senate Election Winner: Abdul El-Sayed (D)69%Wed 4 Nov
  10. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  11. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party65%Wed 4 Nov
  12. Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?: No97%Thu 31 Dec
  13. Ohio Senate Election Winner: Sherrod Brown (D)62%Wed 4 Nov
  14. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day86%Fri 8 Jan
  15. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  16. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  17. Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes81%Thu 10 Dec
  18. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory: Flávio Bolsonaro <4%37%Mon 26 Oct
  19. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  20. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  21. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase77%Wed 9 Dec
  22. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  23. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  24. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  25. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  26. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar72%Wed 28 Oct
  27. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  28. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  29. Georgia Senate Election Winner: Jon Ossoff (D) 95%Wed 4 Nov
  30. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  31. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro73%Sun 25 Oct
  32. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  33. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  34. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No88%Thu 31 Dec
  35. US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?: No64%Fri 1 Jan
  36. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes63%Wed 4 Nov
  37. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-2442%Wed 28 Oct
  38. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  39. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  40. US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  41. Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?: No69%Thu 31 Dec
  42. Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  43. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  44. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)70%Thu 31 Dec
  45. Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?: 220-23935%Fri 23 Oct
  46. Cuban regime falls in 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  47. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  48. Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  49. US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  50. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  51. Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  52. Spain General Election Winner: PP83%Mon 30 Nov
  53. Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  54. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes93%Sun 15 Nov
  55. Fed Decision in January?: No change60%Thu 28 Jan
  56. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá: Flavio Bolsonaro72%Mon 26 Oct
  57. Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  58. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  59. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday56%Mon 1 Feb
  60. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No97%Fri 29 Jan
  61. Fed decisions (Sep–Dec): Hike–Pause–Hike69%Wed 9 Dec
  62. How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?: 22–2334%Wed 4 Nov
  63. Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  64. Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  65. Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  66. Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  67. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?: Yes85%Thu 31 Dec
  68. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No98%Mon 2 Nov
  69. Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  70. Will any German State Prime Minister after a 2026 election be elected with AfD support?: Yes74%Thu 31 Dec
  71. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas: Lula59%Mon 26 Oct
  72. Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?: No100%Sun 1 Nov
  73. Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No86%Mon 19 Apr
  74. Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  75. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?: Anthropic90%Sun 1 Nov
  76. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará: Lula77%Mon 26 Oct
  77. #1 Searched Movie on Google 2026?: The Odyssey61%Thu 31 Dec
  78. Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday65%Mon 1 Feb
  79. Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?: No98%Wed 4 Nov
  80. California Voter ID ballot proposition passes?: No82%Tue 3 Nov
  81. Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?: Flávio Bolsonaro96%Mon 26 Oct
  82. Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?: Anthropic89%Sun 1 Nov
  83. Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.41% in October?: No85%Sun 1 Nov
  84. Second-best AI Lab end of October?: Anthropic72%Sat 31 Oct
  85. Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?: 25 bps increase72%Wed 28 Oct
  86. Mexico Legislative Election Winner: Morena95%Mon 7 Jun
  87. Next Secretary-General of the United Nations: Rebeca Grynspan45%Thu 1 Jul
  88. Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in October?: No72%Sun 1 Nov
  89. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout: 78-80%58%Mon 26 Oct
  90. Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026: No88%Sat 31 Oct
  91. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais: Flavio Bolsonaro92%Mon 26 Oct
  92. Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  93. No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?: No change97%Tue 27 Oct
  94. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in October?: No73%Sun 1 Nov
  95. Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?: No85%Wed 28 Oct
  96. Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?: 200+35%Fri 23 Oct
  97. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?: Anthropic99%Sat 31 Oct
  98. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in October?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  99. Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?: Yes57%Thu 1 Jul
  100. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in October?: No76%Sun 1 Nov
  101. Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?: S + MP21%Sun 1 Aug
  102. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?: Anthropic92%Sun 1 Nov
  103. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in October?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  104. Will Anthropic announce a $400+/month tier before November 2026?: No94%Sat 31 Oct
  105. Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  106. October Inflation China - Annual: 0.9% to 1.0%46%Mon 9 Nov
  107. US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — September: 3.10%46%Thu 29 Oct
  108. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in October?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  109. Bank of Korea decision in October?: No Change99%Thu 22 Oct
  110. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?: Anthropic92%Sat 31 Oct
  111. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in October?: No97%Sun 1 Nov
  112. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $810 in October?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  113. Modi out by June 30, 2027?: No90%Thu 1 Jul
  114. October Inflation US - Monthly: 0.3%34%Wed 11 Nov
  115. Mexico Legislative Election: 2nd Place?: PVEM56%Mon 7 Jun
  116. Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2027?: No91%Thu 1 Jul
  117. Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027?: Yes63%Thu 1 Jul
  118. CZ # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?: 20-3967%Fri 23 Oct
  119. Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?: No84%Thu 1 Jul
  120. State of Mexico Congress Election Winner: Morena92%Mon 7 Jun
  121. Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?: No78%Wed 30 Jun
  122. Ted Cruz # posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?: 140-15943%Tue 27 Oct
  123. Khamenei # posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?: <583%Tue 27 Oct
  124. Baja California Congress Election Winner: Morena74%Mon 7 Jun
  125. SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by June 30, 2027?: No92%Thu 1 Jul
  126. Puebla Congress Election Winner: Morena87%Mon 7 Jun
  127. Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 global unit case volume growth?: <3.5%51%Tue 27 Oct
  128. Will DeepSeek IPO by September 30, 2027?: Yes61%Fri 1 Oct
  129. Yucatán Congress Election Winner: Morena69%Mon 7 Jun
  130. Campeche Congress Election Winner: Morena61%Mon 7 Jun
  131. Zacatecas Congress Election Winner: Morena72%Mon 7 Jun
  132. Oaxaca Congress Election Winner: Morena89%Mon 7 Jun
  133. Chiapas Congress Election Winner: Morena78%Mon 7 Jun
  134. Colima Congress Election Winner: Morena66%Mon 7 Jun
  135. Michoacán Congress Election Winner: Morena70%Mon 7 Jun
  136. Tlaxcala Congress Election Winner: Morena78%Mon 7 Jun
  137. Chihuahua Congress Election Winner: Morena26%Mon 7 Jun
  138. Quintana Roo Congress Election Winner: Morena82%Mon 7 Jun
  139. Procter & Gamble (PG) Q1 organic sales growth?: 2.5% to 3.5%46%Thu 22 Oct
  140. Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars)?: 13.5% to 14.5%55%Tue 27 Oct
  141. Zelenskyy # posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?: 80-9967%Tue 27 Oct
  142. Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?: Yes54%Thu 1 Jul
  143. Will OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2027?: No67%Thu 1 Jul
  144. Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth?: 6.5% to 8%27%Tue 27 Oct
  145. Will Kimi (Moonshot AI) IPO by June 30, 2027?: Yes71%Thu 1 Jul
  146. Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?: Yes60%Thu 1 Jul
  147. Fed Decision in October?: No change86%Thu 29 Oct
  148. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot52%Wed 28 Oct
  149. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane67%Sat 31 Oct
  150. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  151. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  152. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  153. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  154. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  155. VA-05 House Election Winner: John McGuire (R)88%Wed 4 Nov
  156. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes88%Sat 31 Oct
  157. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: Aleksandar Vučić70%Sun 25 Oct
  158. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  159. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  160. US recession by end of 2026?: No94%Sun 31 Jan
  161. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  162. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes93%Sat 31 Oct
  163. Iowa Senate Election Winner: Ashley Hinson (R)59%Wed 4 Nov
  164. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No78%Wed 4 Nov
  165. Wisconsin Governor Election Winner: David Crowley (D)81%Wed 4 Nov
  166. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  167. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro77%Thu 31 Dec
  168. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli97%Sun 6 Dec
  169. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  170. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  171. Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?: No Hormuz Agreement94%Wed 4 Nov
  172. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  173. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  174. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  175. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  176. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  177. OpenAI IPO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  178. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: ≥ 4.5%81%Fri 1 Jan
  179. New Hampshire Senate Election Winner: Chris Pappas (D)89%Wed 4 Nov
  180. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No91%Sun 1 Nov
  181. Nevada Governor Election Winner: Aaron Ford (D)55%Wed 4 Nov
  182. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  183. TX-28 House Election Margin of Victory: Democrat 6-9%55%Wed 4 Nov
  184. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No84%Tue 5 Jan
  185. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: SpaceX73%Thu 31 Dec
  186. Michigan Governor Election Winner: Jocelyn Benson (D)90%Wed 4 Nov
  187. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  188. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  189. Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner: Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia70%Sun 25 Oct
  190. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Google82%Sat 31 Oct
  191. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No98%Wed 18 Nov
  192. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  193. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No74%Fri 1 Jan
  194. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  195. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 481%Fri 1 Jan
  196. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  197. Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?: No Hormuz Agreement88%Wed 4 Nov
  198. Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  199. Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola74%Wed 4 Nov
  200. Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?: No100%Sun 1 Nov
  201. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  202. Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  203. Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?: Oil ≥ $85; D Senate61%Wed 4 Nov
  204. Iowa Governor Election Winner: Rob Sand (D)84%Wed 4 Nov
  205. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  206. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  207. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  208. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No96%Mon 30 Nov
  209. Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?: No100%Sun 1 Nov
  210. All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  211. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  213. Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?: No91%Sun 1 Nov
  214. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: San Francisco 49ers15%Thu 1 Apr
  215. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No93%Mon 4 Jan
  216. FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC: FC Bayern München77%Wed 21 Oct
  217. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  218. Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?: China77%Fri 1 Jan
  219. North Carolina Senate Election Winner: Roy Cooper (D)94%Wed 4 Nov
  220. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sat 31 Oct
  221. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  222. UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion: Barcelona21%Sun 30 May
  223. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA76%Fri 1 Jan
  224. Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Chiang Wan-an62%Sun 29 Nov
  225. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: Yes60%Fri 1 Jan
  226. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova88%Mon 26 Oct
  227. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  228. Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  229. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?: No86%Sun 1 Nov
  230. Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  231. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  232. EPL: 2027 Champion: Arsenal63%Sun 30 May
  233. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic48%Thu 31 Dec
  234. Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?: No97%Thu 31 Dec
  235. South Carolina Senate Election Winner: Darline Graham Nordone (R)82%Wed 4 Nov
  236. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Nashville SC22%Fri 1 Jan
  237. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  238. Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  239. Arizona Governor Election Winner: Katie Hobbs (D)91%Wed 4 Nov
  240. Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  241. Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?: No meeting before 202790%Fri 1 Jan
  242. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  243. US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?: Yes81%Wed 4 Nov
  244. Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?: Yes77%Fri 1 Jan
  245. Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  246. Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  247. US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?: No58%Mon 30 Nov
  248. Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 181%Thu 31 Dec
  249. Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  250. Kansas Senate Election Winner: Roger Marshall (R)62%Wed 4 Nov
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.