29%Édouard Philippe won the 2027 French Presidential election21%The Odyssey won best Cinematography at 2027 Oscars39%Fed ended 2026 with rate at 4.0% after single Hike59%Russia-Ukraine conflict showed no change in 202665%Trump won, but US avoided new wars and NATO stay78%Mojtaba Khamenei remained Iran's leader at end of 202694%China did not invade or blockade Taiwan in 202656%Spider-Man: Brand New Day was 2026's top-grossing film48%Netanyahu remained Israel's Prime Minister through 202651%Democrats won house and senate majorities in 2026 Midterms66%Parti Québécois won Quebec election, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon became Premier53%Lula won Brazil's 2026 Presidential runoff

AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Saturday, 5 September 2026
Edition of Sunday, 5 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sat 5 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Sunday, 5 September 2027.

Politics

Édouard Philippe won the 2027 French Presidential election

Marine Le Pen advanced to the runoff and Laurent Wauquiez was absent from the ballot.

29% certain
lead market 29%next 27%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Apr

Édouard Philippe was declared the winner of the 2027 French Presidential election. His victory ended a runoff contest between the two leading candidates.

Marine Le Pen secured a place in the second round of the election. This development was logged on Friday 30 April. She joined Édouard Philippe as the final contenders.

Read the full report

Economics

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in August

Headline CPI increased 0.4% month over month while Core inflation stayed at 2.4% year over year.

52% certain
lead market 52%next 31%1 venuesettles Fri 11 Sept

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Brazil Presidential Election: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva53%Sun 4 Oct
  2. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No89%Wed 4 Nov
  3. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No93%Wed 4 Nov
  4. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)67%Wed 30 Sept
  5. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  6. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  7. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei78%Thu 31 Dec
  8. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: Yes55%Sat 3 Oct
  9. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen32%Fri 30 Apr
  10. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot48%Thu 31 Dec
  11. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party88%Tue 3 Nov
  12. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes89%Sun 15 Nov
  13. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro85%Sun 4 Oct
  14. Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson78%Sun 13 Sept
  15. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No89%Sun 15 Nov
  16. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  17. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep51%Tue 3 Nov
  18. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  19. Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes72%Wed 9 Dec
  20. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  21. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  22. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day91%Thu 31 Dec
  23. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  24. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0%39%Wed 9 Dec
  25. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party51%Tue 3 Nov
  26. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  27. OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  28. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  29. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  30. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)98%Wed 30 Sept
  31. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  32. Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  33. Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%Sun 13 Sept
  34. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  35. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula60%Fri 2 Oct
  36. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  37. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  39. SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes94%Sun 6 Sept
  40. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes65%Mon 30 Nov
  41. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No66%Fri 1 Jan
  42. Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026: No85%Sun 6 Sept
  43. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  44. Will Chat GPT Astra or GPT6 have safeguard triggers like Anthropic models?: Yes91%Sat 26 Sept
  45. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: No53%Wed 4 Nov
  46. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  47. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No77%Sun 1 Nov
  48. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No76%Fri 1 Jan
  49. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  50. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  51. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  52. Fed Decision in October?: No change67%Wed 28 Oct
  53. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner: AfD100%Sun 6 Sept
  54. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  55. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  56. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  57. Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?: Yes98%Thu 1 Oct
  58. US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  59. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  60. Liberals still in Riksdag after next election?: No78%Sat 12 Sept
  61. Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  62. Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?: No63%Mon 21 Sept
  63. Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?: No51%Wed 9 Dec
  64. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ71%Mon 5 Oct
  65. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  66. Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  67. Will Chris Pappas win the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Primary for Senate?: Yes96%Tue 8 Sept
  68. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  69. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?: No99%Sun 20 Sept
  70. Fed decisions (Jul–Oct): Other64%Wed 28 Oct
  71. Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?: Yes89%Sat 12 Sept
  72. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)87%Sun 20 Sept
  73. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  74. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No83%Thu 1 Oct
  75. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  76. Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?: No100%Thu 8 Oct
  77. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No84%Thu 31 Dec
  78. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  79. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No59%Fri 1 Jan
  80. ECB Interest Rates: September 2026: 25 bps increase99%Thu 10 Sept
  81. US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?: No95%Thu 31 Dec
  82. Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo: No92%Thu 31 Dec
  83. Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?: No75%Thu 1 Oct
  84. Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?: Yes79%Thu 1 Oct
  85. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33937%Sun 20 Sept
  86. Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?: Yes64%Sun 20 Sept
  87. Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?: No85%Sat 3 Oct
  88. Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September?: No85%Thu 1 Oct
  89. Fed Decision in December?: No change46%Wed 9 Dec
  90. Next Premier of Quebec: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon66%Mon 5 Oct
  91. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes98%Sun 4 Oct
  92. Will August 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes92%Fri 11 Sept
  93. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No95%Sun 4 Oct
  94. Bank of Russia decision in September?: No Change64%Fri 11 Sept
  95. New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Chris Pappas97%Tue 8 Sept
  96. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No94%Fri 8 Jan
  97. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday56%Fri 1 Jan
  98. Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?: 27-30%53%Sun 13 Sept
  99. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?: No90%Thu 31 Dec
  100. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  101. Will the US announce materially tougher Iran sanctions within 14‑days of Scott Bessent’s “Economic D‑Day” FT op‑ed?: No75%Sat 5 Sept
  102. NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Maura Sullivan89%Tue 8 Sept
  103. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  104. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?: 5-7%65%Sun 6 Sept
  105. Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  106. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes97%Sun 4 Oct
  107. Will the AfD win more than 40% of the vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes76%Mon 7 Sept
  108. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?: 7-9%56%Sun 6 Sept
  109. Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?: Sven Schulze73%Sun 6 Sept
  110. Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October: No78%Wed 30 Sept
  111. Will Dan McKee be renominated for Governor of Rhode Island in 2026?: No95%Tue 8 Sept
  112. Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic Primary Winner: Kim Ahern74%Wed 9 Sept
  113. August Inflation US - Annual: 3.4%43%Fri 11 Sept
  114. Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?: David Morales85%Wed 9 Sept
  115. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Vote Share?: 9-12%50%Sun 6 Sept
  116. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share?: 20-23%42%Sun 6 Sept
  117. Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner: The Odyssey47%Sun 14 Mar
  118. Will OpenAI classify any model as "Critical" capability under its Preparedness Framework before Oct 1, 2026?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  119. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?: 39-42%40%Sun 6 Sept
  120. Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of September?: OpenAI97%Thu 1 Oct
  121. Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner: did not happen94%Tue 8 Sept
  122. European Central Bank interest rate decision in September: Rise by 0.25% or more96%Wed 9 Sept
  123. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%?: Over80%Sun 6 Sept
  124. Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner: Julianne Moore26%Sun 14 Mar
  125. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%?: Over53%Sun 6 Sept
  126. New Hampshire Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Cinde Warmington99%Tue 8 Sept
  127. Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner: Matt Damon25%Sun 14 Mar
  128. August Inflation China - Annual: 0.7% - 0.8%40%Wed 9 Sept
  129. Will August 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: No53%Fri 11 Sept
  130. August Inflation US - Monthly: 0.4%52%Fri 11 Sept
  131. Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes87%Sat 17 Apr
  132. Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No88%Sat 17 Apr
  133. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to Grüne or BSW?: Grüne95%Sun 6 Sept
  134. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?: 3-5%79%Sun 6 Sept
  135. Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No97%Sat 17 Apr
  136. Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No88%Sat 17 Apr
  137. Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election?: did not happen85%Sun 6 Sept
  138. Core CPI YoY - August 2026: 2.4%67%Fri 11 Sept
  139. Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No91%Fri 30 Apr
  140. Winner of France’s presidential election: Édouard Philippe29%Thu 1 Apr
  141. Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes88%Sat 17 Apr
  142. Core CPI MoM - August 2026: 0.2%55%Fri 11 Sept
  143. Will Russia target Kyiv on September 5, 2026?: Yes67%Sat 5 Sept
  144. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?: Under89%Sun 6 Sept
  145. Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No71%Sat 17 Apr
  146. Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No74%Sat 17 Apr
  147. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?: SPD80%Sun 6 Sept
  148. Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No94%Sat 17 Apr
  149. Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes56%Sat 17 Apr
  150. Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No94%Sat 17 Apr
  151. Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No90%Sat 17 Apr
  152. Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No73%Sat 17 Apr
  153. Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: Yes87%Fri 30 Apr
  154. Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner: Wild Horse Nine31%Sun 14 Mar
  155. Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes67%Sat 17 Apr
  156. Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Winner: The Odyssey58%Sun 14 Mar
  157. Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Winner: The Odyssey44%Sun 14 Mar
  158. Oscars 2027: Best Visual Effects Winner: Dune: Part Three50%Sun 14 Mar
  159. Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner: The Black Ball23%Sun 14 Mar
  160. Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Winner: Anne Hathaway33%Sun 14 Mar
  161. Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner: Christopher Nolan52%Sun 14 Mar
  162. Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Winner: Paul Giamatti25%Sun 14 Mar
  163. New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary: Margin of Victory: Pappas 20–25%16%Tue 8 Sept
  164. Oscars 2027: Best Casting Winner: The Odyssey38%Sun 14 Mar
  165. Oscars 2027: Best Makeup and Hairstyling Winner: Dune: Part Three21%Sun 14 Mar
  166. Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Sabina Matos90%Wed 9 Sept
  167. Will Elon post "Iran" or "Iranian" on X this week?: No92%Sun 6 Sept
  168. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra93%Tue 3 Nov
  169. Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?: No99%Fri 6 Nov
  170. Fed Decision in September?: 25 bps increase50%Wed 16 Sept
  171. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane60%Sat 31 Oct
  172. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)89%Thu 31 Dec
  173. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes50%Wed 4 Nov
  174. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No96%Wed 18 Nov
  175. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: No52%Tue 1 Dec
  176. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes62%Tue 3 Nov
  177. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No65%Tue 3 Nov
  178. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  179. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No51%Tue 1 Dec
  180. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Yulia Navalnaya21%Sat 10 Oct
  181. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  182. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  183. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro80%Thu 31 Dec
  184. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  185. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli68%Sun 6 Dec
  186. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3090%Thu 1 Oct
  187. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  188. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No51%Wed 4 Nov
  189. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  190. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  191. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes72%Wed 4 Nov
  192. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  193. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  194. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes67%Tue 3 Nov
  195. Manchester City FC vs. Coventry City FC: Manchester City FC79%Sat 5 Sept
  196. Will GPT-6 be released before the end of October 2026?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  197. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No80%Tue 3 Nov
  198. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes94%Wed 30 Sept
  199. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  200. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  201. Berlin State Election Winner: CDU42%Sun 20 Sept
  202. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  203. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  204. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  205. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No72%Tue 3 Nov
  206. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  207. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes87%Sun 6 Dec
  208. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  209. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  210. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  211. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: No51%Tue 3 Nov
  212. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  213. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No87%Tue 3 Nov
  214. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  215. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No66%Mon 30 Nov
  216. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  217. Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Newcastle United FC65%Sat 5 Sept
  218. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers29%Sat 31 Oct
  219. Will Bitcoin be higher a month from now?: Yes88%Sat 5 Sept
  220. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  221. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  222. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Thu 31 Dec
  223. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No96%Sun 27 Sept
  224. 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Carlos Alcaraz43%Sun 13 Sept
  225. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  226. Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Leeds United FC: Brighton & Hove Albion FC66%Sat 5 Sept
  227. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  228. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  229. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes89%Thu 1 Oct
  230. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  231. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  232. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No74%Thu 31 Dec
  233. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Inter Miami CF21%Sat 19 Dec
  234. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  235. VA-06 House Election Winner: Republican Party89%Tue 3 Nov
  236. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes54%Mon 23 Nov
  237. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  238. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  239. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 5?: Yes94%Sat 5 Sept
  240. Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?: No85%Wed 30 Sept
  241. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes83%Wed 14 Oct
  242. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic82%Thu 1 Oct
  243. Nottingham Forest FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Nottingham Forest FC65%Sat 5 Sept
  244. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 493%Fri 1 Jan
  245. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Los Angeles Rams16%Wed 31 Mar
  246. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  247. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  248. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  249. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  250. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.