16%Arsenal won Premier League as Barcelona clinched Champions League84%Starship capsule survived after Superheavy exploded21%Christopher Nolan won best Director at 2027 Oscars54%China posted 4-5% Growth in 2026, outpacing U.S. expansion40%Fed held rates at 4% after single 2026 Hike61%NVIDIA topped companies while Anthropic led AI performance79%Mojtaba Khamenei remained Iran's leader as nuclear program stalled74%No ceasefire reached between Russia and Ukraine in 202693%China did not invade Taiwan or clash with Japan in 202693%Vladimir Putin remained Russia's president65%Xavier Becerra elected governor as Karen Bass won Los Angeles mayoralty50%Netanyahu stayed Prime Minister through October 2026, Eizenkot set to succeed

AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Sunday, 6 September 2026
Edition of Monday, 6 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sun 6 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Monday, 6 September 2027.

Sports

Arsenal won Premier League as Barcelona clinched Champions League

Inter Milan took the Serie A title while Harry Kane led the Bundesliga in goals.

16% certain
lead market 16%next 14%1 venuesettles Sun 30 May

Arsenal secured the 2026-27 Premier League title, while Inter Milan captured the Serie A crown. Barcelona triumphed in the 2027 UEFA Champions League. The season also produced a string of individual scoring accolades across Europe.

Manchester City finished as the league's Runner-Up and Erling Haaland claimed the Premier League golden boot. Goalkeeper David Raya recorded the most Clean Sheets in the campaign. Brentford failed to reach the top six, and Hull City were relegated from the division.

Read the full report

World

Vladimir Putin remained Russia's president

Volodymyr Zelenskyy also stayed in office in Ukraine while Donald Trump remained out of the U.S. presidency.

93% certain
lead market 93%next 8%1 venuesettles Thu 31 Dec

Politics

United States avoided Oct. 1 shutdown

The White House still had no Press Secretary named, and President Donald Trump remained in office.

77% certain
lead market 77%next 33%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?: No99%Fri 6 Nov
  2. Brazil Presidential Election: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva53%Sun 4 Oct
  3. Fed Decision in September?: No change49%Wed 16 Sept
  4. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra93%Tue 3 Nov
  5. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  6. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei79%Thu 31 Dec
  7. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: Yes55%Sat 3 Oct
  8. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  9. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot50%Thu 31 Dec
  10. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party88%Tue 3 Nov
  11. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes89%Sun 15 Nov
  12. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  13. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro86%Sun 4 Oct
  14. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  15. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep51%Tue 3 Nov
  16. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  17. Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes72%Wed 9 Dec
  18. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  19. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No72%Tue 3 Nov
  20. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA78%Thu 31 Dec
  21. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  22. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0%40%Wed 9 Dec
  23. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party51%Tue 3 Nov
  24. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  25. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  26. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No93%Thu 31 Dec
  27. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  28. Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%Sun 13 Sept
  29. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  30. SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes95%Sun 6 Sept
  31. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  32. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula59%Fri 2 Oct
  33. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  34. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  35. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  36. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No74%Fri 1 Jan
  37. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  38. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes66%Wed 16 Sept
  39. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass65%Thu 31 Dec
  40. Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026: No76%Sun 6 Sept
  41. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  42. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  43. EPL: 2027 Champion: Arsenal47%Sun 30 May
  44. UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion: Barcelona16%Sun 30 May
  45. US recession by end of 2026?: No93%Sun 31 Jan
  46. Fed Decision in October?: No change67%Wed 28 Oct
  47. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  48. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  49. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  50. Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026: No77%Sat 31 Oct
  51. Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?: Yes98%Thu 1 Oct
  52. US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  53. Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Pause–Pause–Pause50%Wed 16 Sept
  54. Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  55. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Augusto Cury57%Sun 4 Oct
  56. Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?: No51%Wed 9 Dec
  57. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  58. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)79%Sun 4 Oct
  59. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?: No99%Sun 20 Sept
  60. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sat 31 Oct
  61. China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 4.0–5.0%88%Sun 31 Jan
  62. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic61%Fri 1 Jan
  63. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No86%Thu 31 Dec
  64. Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?: Yes89%Sat 12 Sept
  65. Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?: No100%Thu 8 Oct
  66. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?: No97%Thu 31 Dec
  67. GDP growth in 2026: 2.0–2.5%54%Fri 29 Jan
  68. Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?: Yes79%Thu 1 Oct
  69. Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?: Yes77%Thu 1 Oct
  70. Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?: Yes62%Wed 9 Dec
  71. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  72. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes90%Fri 1 Jan
  73. Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?: Yes64%Sun 20 Sept
  74. Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in September?: No85%Thu 1 Oct
  75. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%43%Sun 4 Oct
  76. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  77. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo91%Sun 4 Oct
  78. Trump out as President by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  79. Fed Decision in December?: No change45%Wed 9 Dec
  80. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes98%Sun 4 Oct
  81. 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?: No52%Wed 16 Sept
  82. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No95%Sun 4 Oct
  83. Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?: No99%Wed 16 Sept
  84. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?: 5-7%66%Sun 6 Sept
  85. São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Tarcísio de Freitas98%Sun 4 Oct
  86. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No94%Fri 8 Jan
  87. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  88. Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?: 27-30%54%Sun 13 Sept
  89. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes91%Mon 5 Oct
  90. Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting?: No98%Wed 23 Sept
  91. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Ciro Gomes64%Sun 4 Oct
  92. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?: 7-9%54%Sun 6 Sept
  93. Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?: No97%Thu 1 Jul
  94. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  95. Will the AfD win more than 40% of the vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes79%Mon 7 Sept
  96. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes97%Sun 4 Oct
  97. Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?: Sven Schulze74%Sun 6 Sept
  98. Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?: No57%Sun 13 Sept
  99. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco50%Sun 4 Oct
  100. Bahia Governor Election Winner: Jerônimo Rodrigues52%Sun 4 Oct
  101. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Sweden Democrats (SD)81%Sun 13 Sept
  102. Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?: No77%Thu 1 Oct
  103. Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner: Elaine Pelino92%Tue 8 Sept
  104. Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October: No75%Wed 30 Sept
  105. Providence, RI Democratic Mayoral Nominee: David Morales86%Wed 9 Sept
  106. Will Dan McKee be renominated for Governor of Rhode Island in 2026?: No95%Tue 8 Sept
  107. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Moderate Party (M)79%Sun 13 Sept
  108. Serie A: 2027 Champion: Inter Milan43%Sun 30 May
  109. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share?: 20-23%43%Sun 6 Sept
  110. Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic Primary Winner: Kim Ahern99%Wed 9 Sept
  111. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Vote Share?: 9-12%57%Sun 6 Sept
  112. "By Any Means" Opening Weekend Box Office: 7-8m91%Sun 6 Sept
  113. Sweden Parliamentary Election: Örebropartiet Win Seats?: No79%Sun 13 Sept
  114. Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner: The Odyssey48%Sun 14 Mar
  115. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?: 42-45%39%Sun 6 Sept
  116. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%?: Under52%Sun 6 Sept
  117. Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner: Julianne Moore46%Sun 14 Mar
  118. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 6th Place: Centre Party (C)37%Sun 13 Sept
  119. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 6th Weekend Box Office: 15m+99%Sun 6 Sept
  120. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 4th Place: Centre Party (C)38%Sun 13 Sept
  121. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%?: Over80%Sun 6 Sept
  122. "Onslaught" Opening Weekend Box Office: <2m91%Sun 6 Sept
  123. Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner: Matt Damon24%Sun 14 Mar
  124. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 5th Place: Left Party (V)30%Sun 13 Sept
  125. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?: 3-5%68%Sun 6 Sept
  126. Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SD or M?: SD67%Sun 13 Sept
  127. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Over/Under 12%?: Under65%Sun 6 Sept
  128. What will be the #2 global Netflix show this week?: Beauty in Black: Season 393%Tue 8 Sept
  129. English Premier League: Top Goalscorer 2026-27: Erling Haaland56%Mon 31 May
  130. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?: Under56%Sun 6 Sept
  131. LaLiga: Top Goalscorer 2026-27: Kylian Mbappé69%Mon 31 May
  132. What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?: Beauty in Black: Season 393%Tue 8 Sept
  133. Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?: Yes84%Thu 1 Jul
  134. Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election?: did not happen85%Sun 6 Sept
  135. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?: SPD81%Sun 6 Sept
  136. What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?: Untold Raygun: Breaking Badly72%Tue 8 Sept
  137. Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner: Wild Horse Nine40%Sun 14 Mar
  138. Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?: No94%Thu 1 Jul
  139. Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 30 million views this week?: Yes96%Tue 8 Sept
  140. "The Odyssey" 8th Weekend Box Office: 11m+99%Sun 6 Sept
  141. Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Winner: The Odyssey58%Sun 14 Mar
  142. What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?: The Secret Woman99%Tue 8 Sept
  143. Will "Onslaught" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: No96%Mon 7 Sept
  144. Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Winner: The Odyssey44%Sun 14 Mar
  145. Oscars 2027: Best Visual Effects Winner: Dune: Part Three50%Sun 14 Mar
  146. Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner: The Odyssey24%Sun 14 Mar
  147. What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?: The Whisper Man98%Tue 8 Sept
  148. Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Winner: Anne Hathaway33%Sun 14 Mar
  149. Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner: Christopher Nolan55%Sun 14 Mar
  150. Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Winner: Paul Giamatti39%Sun 14 Mar
  151. What will be the top US Netflix show this week?: Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 199%Tue 8 Sept
  152. Serie A: Top Goalscorer 2026-27: Donyell Malen41%Mon 31 May
  153. Oscars 2027: Best Casting Winner: The Odyssey42%Sun 14 Mar
  154. What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?: The Whisper Man98%Tue 8 Sept
  155. English Premier League: Most Clean Sheets 2026-27: David Raya50%Mon 31 May
  156. Oscars 2027: Best Makeup and Hairstyling Winner: Dune: Part Three21%Sun 14 Mar
  157. Bundesliga: Top Goalscorer 2026-27: Harry Kane46%Mon 31 May
  158. Premier League: 2026-27 Runner-Up: Manchester City25%Sun 1 Aug
  159. Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?: Yes59%Thu 1 Jul
  160. Will AC Milan qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?: Yes72%Wed 1 Sept
  161. Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown?: Yes86%Thu 1 Jul
  162. Will Brentford finish in the top 6 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?: No76%Sun 30 May
  163. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No89%Wed 4 Nov
  164. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No92%Wed 4 Nov
  165. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)68%Wed 30 Sept
  166. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  167. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No82%Sun 1 Nov
  168. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane59%Sat 31 Oct
  169. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)89%Thu 31 Dec
  170. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: No50%Wed 4 Nov
  171. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No96%Wed 18 Nov
  172. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen33%Fri 30 Apr
  173. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: No51%Tue 1 Dec
  174. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes62%Tue 3 Nov
  175. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No64%Tue 3 Nov
  176. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No50%Tue 1 Dec
  177. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Yulia Navalnaya20%Sat 10 Oct
  178. Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson76%Sun 13 Sept
  179. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No89%Sun 15 Nov
  180. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  181. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro81%Thu 31 Dec
  182. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  183. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli67%Sun 6 Dec
  184. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3092%Thu 1 Oct
  185. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  186. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No51%Wed 4 Nov
  187. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)96%Wed 30 Sept
  188. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  189. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  190. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes72%Wed 4 Nov
  191. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  192. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  193. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes67%Tue 3 Nov
  194. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day91%Thu 31 Dec
  195. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  196. Will GPT-6 be released before the end of October 2026?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  197. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No80%Tue 3 Nov
  198. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  199. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  200. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  201. Berlin State Election Winner: CDU45%Sun 20 Sept
  202. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  203. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  204. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  205. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  206. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes87%Sun 6 Dec
  207. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  208. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  209. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  210. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 494%Fri 1 Jan
  211. Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: FC Barcelona75%Sun 6 Sept
  212. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: No51%Tue 3 Nov
  213. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  214. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No86%Tue 3 Nov
  215. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  216. OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  217. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  218. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  219. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No66%Mon 30 Nov
  220. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers30%Sat 31 Oct
  221. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  222. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  223. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No96%Sun 27 Sept
  224. AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?: No82%Wed 30 Sept
  225. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  226. 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Carlos Alcaraz47%Sun 13 Sept
  227. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  228. Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  229. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  230. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes89%Thu 1 Oct
  231. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic59%Thu 31 Dec
  232. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  233. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic79%Thu 1 Oct
  234. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No74%Thu 31 Dec
  235. Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: Arsenal FC72%Sun 6 Sept
  236. Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: Manchester United FC63%Sun 6 Sept
  237. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Inter Miami CF19%Sat 19 Dec
  238. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  239. Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  240. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes54%Mon 23 Nov
  241. Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?: No87%Wed 30 Sept
  242. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes83%Wed 14 Oct
  243. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  244. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  245. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Los Angeles Rams16%Wed 31 Mar
  246. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  247. Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?: No meeting before 202793%Fri 1 Jan
  248. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  249. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes96%Wed 28 Oct
  250. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes65%Mon 30 Nov
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.