31%Marine Le Pen won 2027 French Presidential election24%The Odyssey won best Original Score and Adapted Screenplay35%Fed ended 2026 with 4.25% rate after single Hike68%Anthropic reached $1.75 trillion valuation and topped model rankings67%No ceasefire reached between Russia and Ukraine in 202693%China avoided invading Taiwan and clashing with Japan in 202687%Washington ruled out Greenland acquisition in 202653%Gadi Eizenkot became Israel's Prime Minister52%Democrats swept Congress, taking house and senate61%Tarcísio de Freitas won São Paulo governorship43%Lula won Brazil's 2026 Presidential first round, triggering runoff79%Israel closed airspace and struck Lebanon as ceasefire with Iran held

AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Edition of Wednesday, 15 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Tue 15 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Wednesday, 15 September 2027.

Politics

Marine Le Pen won 2027 French Presidential election

The race featured only established politicians as expected newcomers Mathilde Panot, Laurent Wauquiez and Jordan Bardella were absent.

31% certain
lead market 31%next 24%1 venuesettles Fri 30 Apr

Marine Le Pen won the 2027 French Presidential election on Friday. The final candidate list was dominated by established politicians, while several anticipated contenders were missing. The result closed a campaign in which no newcomer reached the second round.

Mathilde Panot did not announce a candidacy for the election in 2026, a fact confirmed on 23 April. Her decision left the left without a high-profile entrant. The omission contributed to the dominance of veteran figures on the ballot.

Read the full report

Science

OpenAI classified a model as Critical

OpenAI led in text-to-Image and web-dev Code, but fell Second in Agent labs and lost a GPT trademark.

78% certain
lead market 78%next 21%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro49%Sun 4 Oct
  2. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)76%Wed 30 Sept
  3. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  4. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)91%Thu 31 Dec
  5. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen31%Fri 30 Apr
  6. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes52%Tue 1 Dec
  7. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party87%Tue 3 Nov
  8. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No52%Tue 1 Dec
  9. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot53%Thu 31 Dec
  10. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep54%Tue 3 Nov
  11. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes89%Sun 15 Nov
  12. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No89%Sun 15 Nov
  13. Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes93%Wed 9 Dec
  14. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  15. Berlin State Election Winner: Linke63%Sun 20 Sept
  16. Israel closes its airspace by September 30?: Yes97%Thu 1 Oct
  17. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro73%Sun 4 Oct
  18. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  19. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3094%Thu 1 Oct
  20. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  21. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  22. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party53%Tue 3 Nov
  23. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  24. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%35%Wed 9 Dec
  25. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  26. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)99%Wed 30 Sept
  27. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  28. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  29. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  30. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  31. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  32. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  33. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  34. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  35. Fed Decision in October?: No change61%Wed 28 Oct
  36. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  37. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  39. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No92%Wed 30 Sept
  40. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula50%Fri 2 Oct
  41. Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?: Yes88%Wed 9 Dec
  42. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  43. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: No55%Wed 4 Nov
  44. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?: No100%Sun 20 Sept
  45. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner: AfD84%Sun 20 Sept
  47. Next Prime Minister of Romania?: Alexandru Nazare62%Thu 31 Dec
  48. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  49. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  50. Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?: Yes85%Sat 7 Nov
  51. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  52. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Augusto Cury43%Sun 4 Oct
  53. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  54. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No95%Sat 31 Oct
  55. Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  56. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33943%Sun 20 Sept
  57. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)91%Sun 20 Sept
  58. Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?: Yes90%Wed 9 Dec
  59. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  60. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No86%Thu 31 Dec
  61. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic68%Fri 1 Jan
  62. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No67%Fri 1 Jan
  63. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  64. Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: Yes79%Thu 1 Oct
  65. Bank of Japan Decision in September?: 25 bps increase97%Fri 18 Sept
  66. US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?: Yes97%Wed 30 Sept
  67. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  68. Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?: Yes66%Sun 20 Sept
  69. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)82%Sun 4 Oct
  70. Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo: No94%Thu 31 Dec
  71. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  72. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase56%Wed 9 Dec
  73. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo79%Sun 4 Oct
  74. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  75. Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  76. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes88%Fri 1 Jan
  77. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes95%Sun 4 Oct
  78. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No95%Sun 4 Oct
  79. US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on October 1st 2026?: Yes93%Thu 1 Oct
  80. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?: Yes79%Thu 1 Oct
  81. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  82. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  83. US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on any day in September 2026?: Yes71%Wed 30 Sept
  84. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  85. Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  86. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No93%Fri 8 Jan
  87. Will the US sign a peace agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan before September 30, 2026?: No89%Wed 30 Sept
  88. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 1 (25 bps)47%Thu 31 Dec
  89. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes82%Mon 5 Oct
  90. Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  91. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Anthropic84%Sun 1 Nov
  92. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%47%Sun 4 Oct
  93. São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Tarcísio de Freitas98%Sun 4 Oct
  94. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Ciro Gomes61%Sun 4 Oct
  95. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro84%Mon 5 Oct
  96. Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  97. Bank of England decision in September?: No change94%Thu 17 Sept
  98. Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  99. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: Yes55%Mon 21 Sept
  100. Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?: Yes52%Thu 1 Oct
  101. Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  102. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes96%Sun 4 Oct
  103. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?: 31%+86%Sun 20 Sept
  104. Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?: No83%Thu 1 Oct
  105. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: OpenAI78%Thu 1 Oct
  106. Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No99%Sun 4 Oct
  107. Bank of Brazil decision in September?: 25 bps decrease97%Tue 15 Sept
  108. Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  109. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: SPD82%Sun 20 Sept
  110. Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  111. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco61%Sun 4 Oct
  112. Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner: Lula73%Sun 4 Oct
  113. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share?: <8%82%Sun 20 Sept
  114. Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)53%Sun 20 Sept
  115. Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?: No87%Thu 1 Oct
  116. Israel military action against Lebanon on September 30?: Yes83%Wed 30 Sept
  117. What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?: Instadocs: The Decoy Plane98%Tue 15 Sept
  118. Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  119. Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No82%Thu 1 Oct
  120. Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  121. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Linke Vote Share?: 8-11%62%Sun 20 Sept
  122. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: CDU71%Sun 20 Sept
  123. Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?: OpenAI87%Thu 1 Oct
  124. Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout: 53-56%26%Sun 20 Sept
  125. Will United Russia get more seats in the next Russian Duma election than the one in 2021?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  126. Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner: The Odyssey46%Sun 14 Mar
  127. Berlin State Election: Linke Vote Share?: 23%+78%Sun 20 Sept
  128. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?: 3-5%54%Sun 20 Sept
  129. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to CDU or Linke?: Linke93%Sun 20 Sept
  130. Berlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?: <10%57%Sun 20 Sept
  131. Berlin State Election: Grüne Vote Share?: 14-17%41%Sun 20 Sept
  132. Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of September?: OpenAI92%Thu 1 Oct
  133. Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner: Julianne Moore65%Sun 14 Mar
  134. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?: 38%+50%Sun 20 Sept
  135. Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share?: 17-20%61%Sun 20 Sept
  136. Will OpenAI classify any model as "Critical" capability under its Preparedness Framework before Oct 1, 2026?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  137. Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner: John Malkovich28%Sun 14 Mar
  138. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?: 5-7%63%Sun 20 Sept
  139. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Over/Under 28%?: Over90%Sun 20 Sept
  140. What will be the top US Netflix show this week?: Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 197%Tue 15 Sept
  141. Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes89%Sat 17 Apr
  142. Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No82%Sat 17 Apr
  143. Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No88%Sat 17 Apr
  144. What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?: The Whisper Man97%Tue 15 Sept
  145. Berlin State Election: 4th Place: Grüne68%Sun 20 Sept
  146. Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No89%Fri 30 Apr
  147. Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No95%Fri 30 Apr
  148. Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No97%Sat 17 Apr
  149. How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?: <3585%Sun 20 Sept
  150. What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?: Why Did I Get Married Again?97%Tue 15 Sept
  151. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?: Over83%Sun 20 Sept
  152. Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?: No97%Fri 23 Apr
  153. Berlin State Election: 2nd Place: CDU58%Sun 20 Sept
  154. Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or AfD?: CDU82%Sun 20 Sept
  155. Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes84%Sat 17 Apr
  156. Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No62%Sat 17 Apr
  157. Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No68%Sat 17 Apr
  158. Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No94%Sat 17 Apr
  159. Berlin State Election: 3rd Place: AfD51%Sun 20 Sept
  160. Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner: The Debut31%Sun 14 Mar
  161. What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?: Those Who Wish Me Dead97%Tue 15 Sept
  162. What will be the top global Netflix show this week?: The Gentlemen: Season 299%Tue 15 Sept
  163. What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?: Why Did I Get Married Again?95%Tue 15 Sept
  164. Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes63%Sat 17 Apr
  165. What will be the #2 global Netflix show this week?: Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 199%Tue 15 Sept
  166. Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Winner: The Odyssey56%Sun 14 Mar
  167. Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Winner: The Odyssey56%Sun 14 Mar
  168. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?: Under59%Sun 20 Sept
  169. Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner: The Odyssey24%Sun 14 Mar
  170. Oscars 2027: Best Visual Effects Winner: Dune: Part Three50%Sun 14 Mar
  171. Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner: Christopher Nolan53%Sun 14 Mar
  172. Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or Grüne?: AfD78%Sun 20 Sept
  173. Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Winner: Paul Giamatti35%Sun 14 Mar
  174. Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?: AfD92%Sun 20 Sept
  175. Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Winner: Anne Hathaway34%Sun 14 Mar
  176. Fed Decision in September?: 25 bps increase87%Wed 16 Sept
  177. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Tue 3 Nov
  178. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No90%Wed 4 Nov
  179. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No95%Wed 4 Nov
  180. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No94%Sat 31 Oct
  181. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  182. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane50%Sat 31 Oct
  183. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: No50%Wed 4 Nov
  184. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No52%Sat 3 Oct
  185. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No95%Wed 18 Nov
  186. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes64%Tue 3 Nov
  187. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  188. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No65%Tue 3 Nov
  189. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms15%Sat 10 Oct
  190. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  191. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  192. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  193. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei88%Thu 31 Dec
  194. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  195. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro81%Thu 31 Dec
  196. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes76%Wed 4 Nov
  197. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  198. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  199. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No53%Wed 4 Nov
  200. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  201. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli91%Sun 6 Dec
  202. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  203. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic90%Thu 1 Oct
  204. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes67%Tue 3 Nov
  205. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  206. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No80%Tue 3 Nov
  207. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  208. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  209. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No72%Tue 3 Nov
  210. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  211. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day93%Thu 31 Dec
  212. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  213. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  214. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  215. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  216. Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?: No99%Mon 21 Sept
  217. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  218. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  219. VA-06 House Election Winner: did not happen86%Tue 3 Nov
  220. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  221. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  222. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  223. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  224. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: No51%Tue 3 Nov
  225. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  226. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 485%Fri 1 Jan
  227. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No86%Tue 3 Nov
  228. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No93%Thu 31 Dec
  229. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  230. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes94%Thu 1 Oct
  231. Elche CF vs. Real Madrid CF: Real Madrid CF78%Tue 15 Sept
  232. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers30%Sat 31 Oct
  233. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No65%Mon 30 Nov
  234. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No83%Thu 31 Dec
  235. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  236. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No96%Sun 27 Sept
  237. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  238. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  239. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  240. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  241. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  242. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 15?: Yes91%Tue 15 Sept
  243. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  244. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Vancouver Whitecaps FC17%Sat 19 Dec
  245. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  246. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No86%Thu 1 Oct
  247. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes92%Wed 14 Oct
  248. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  249. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  250. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic52%Thu 31 Dec
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.