AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Thursday, 24 September 2026
Edition of Friday, 24 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Thu 24 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Friday, 24 September 2027.

Politics

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro advance to Brazil runoff

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro qualified for the second round while Tarcísio de Freitas and Renan Santos were eliminated.

47% certain
lead market 47%next 38%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Jul

The first round of Brazil's Presidential election concluded without an outright winner. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro emerged as the two candidates moving to the runoff. Tarcísio de Freitas and Renan Santos fell short of qualifying.

Lula secured enough votes to place among the top two, guaranteeing his spot in the second round. His performance confirmed his continued presence in the race after the initial ballot. The result kept the former president in contention for a third term.

Read the full report

World

China refrained from invading Taiwan in 2026

Throughout 2026 China neither launched an invasion nor a blockade, and no direct military clash with Taiwan occurred.

94% certain
lead market 94%next 6%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

Politics|World

Gadi Eizenkot became Israel's Prime Minister

Eizenkot took office as the Israel-Iran ceasefire held through September and Iran's leadership remained unchanged.

52% certain
lead market 52%next 30%1 venuesettles Tue 27 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  3. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot52%Tue 27 Oct
  4. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes59%Wed 4 Nov
  5. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  6. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)97%Fri 1 Jan
  7. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep65%Tue 3 Nov
  8. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes64%Tue 1 Dec
  9. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No66%Tue 1 Dec
  10. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No72%Tue 3 Nov
  11. Fed Decision in October?: 25 bps increase64%Thu 29 Oct
  12. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party93%Tue 5 Jan
  13. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes93%Sun 15 Nov
  14. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  15. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No93%Sun 15 Nov
  16. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party66%Tue 3 Nov
  17. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  18. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No98%Tue 3 Nov
  19. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic97%Wed 30 Sept
  20. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  21. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA76%Fri 1 Jan
  22. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  23. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: ≥ 4.5%60%Fri 1 Jan
  24. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  25. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes96%Wed 30 Sept
  26. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  27. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  28. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  29. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  30. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  31. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: Yes65%Tue 3 Nov
  32. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  33. Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  34. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  35. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes61%Tue 3 Nov
  36. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  37. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?: No87%Thu 1 Oct
  40. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  41. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  42. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 24?: Yes90%Thu 24 Sept
  43. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  44. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?: No84%Thu 1 Oct
  45. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  46. Alaska Governor Election Winner : Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins72%Wed 4 Nov
  47. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  48. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  49. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  50. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes61%Mon 23 Nov
  51. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: Yes62%Wed 4 Nov
  52. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Los Angeles Rams12%Thu 1 Apr
  53. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  54. UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion: Barcelona21%Sun 30 May
  55. Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola74%Tue 3 Nov
  56. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No73%Fri 1 Jan
  57. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase69%Wed 9 Dec
  58. Best Chinese AI Company end of September?: Alibaba91%Wed 30 Sept
  59. EPL: 2027 Champion: Arsenal48%Sun 30 May
  60. Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  61. Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No56%Fri 1 Jan
  62. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No69%Sun 1 Nov
  63. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic70%Thu 31 Dec
  64. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes98%Thu 1 Apr
  65. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  66. US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  67. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  68. Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?: Yes85%Sat 7 Nov
  69. Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  70. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No71%Fri 1 Jan
  71. Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026: No81%Sat 31 Oct
  72. NBA: 2027 Champion: Oklahoma City Thunder25%Thu 1 Jul
  73. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  74. Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  75. NBA: 2026-27 Rookie of the Year: Caleb Wilson22%Sat 1 May
  76. Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  77. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Renan Santos47%Thu 1 Jul
  78. Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  79. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  80. Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  81. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won: PL82%Sun 4 Oct
  82. Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  83. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes82%Tue 5 Jan
  84. Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?: Yes76%Fri 1 Jan
  85. Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion : Buffalo Bills21%Thu 1 Apr
  86. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Anthropic86%Sat 31 Oct
  87. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)56%Thu 31 Dec
  88. Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  89. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No98%Fri 29 Jan
  90. Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?: No97%Mon 23 Nov
  91. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?: No82%Tue 5 Jan
  92. Bitcoin $87,500 in September 2026?: Yes62%Wed 30 Sept
  93. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes97%Thu 1 Jul
  94. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No94%Thu 1 Jul
  95. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  96. Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  97. OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  98. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: Anthropic90%Wed 30 Sept
  99. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?: No97%Thu 31 Dec
  100. Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  101. Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October: No83%Wed 30 Sept
  102. Bitcoin price on September 24?: 84,000-86,00045%Thu 24 Sept
  103. Will bitcoin go below 9.000$ at the end of this month?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  104. Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?: Anthropic91%Thu 1 Oct
  105. CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?: Yes100%Thu 1 Oct
  106. Will SpaceX Crew-13 launch by September 30, 2026?: No99%Mon 28 Sept
  107. What price will Bitcoin hit in September 2026?: Reach $85,00038%Thu 1 Oct
  108. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes98%Thu 1 Jul
  109. Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  110. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%46%Thu 15 Oct
  111. Serie A: 2027 Champion: Inter Milan60%Sat 29 May
  112. Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?: Yes86%Wed 30 Sept
  113. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?: Anthropic95%Thu 1 Oct
  114. Bundesliga: 2027 Champion: Bayern Munich97%Tue 15 Jun
  115. Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?: Yes91%Thu 1 Oct
  116. São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place: André do Prado54%Sun 4 Oct
  117. How long will Trump and Xi shake hands?: 6–10s33%Thu 8 Oct
  118. Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No99%Thu 1 Jul
  119. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held: PL97%Mon 5 Oct
  120. São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place: Guilherme Derrite93%Sun 4 Oct
  121. Will the White House name a new Press Secretary (permanent, acting, or interim) by September 30, 2026?: No67%Thu 1 Oct
  122. Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place: Marcelo Crivella48%Sun 4 Oct
  123. SpaceX closes above $170 at end of month?: No92%Wed 30 Sept
  124. Santa Catarina Senate Election: 2nd Place: Carlos Bolsonaro42%Mon 5 Oct
  125. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?: Anthropic95%Wed 30 Sept
  126. Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place: Bia Kicis56%Mon 5 Oct
  127. Acre Senate Election: 1st Place: Marcio Bittar43%Mon 5 Oct
  128. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of September?: Anthropic94%Wed 30 Sept
  129. Will CNN, MS NOW, and Politico all regain White House press access before October 2026?: Yes91%Thu 1 Oct
  130. NHL: 2027 Champion: Edmonton Oilers22%Thu 1 Jul
  131. Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes88%Wed 14 Oct
  132. China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?: 4.3-4.6%36%Tue 20 Oct
  133. Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?: No99%Thu 8 Oct
  134. LaLiga: Top Goalscorer 2026-27: Raphinha49%Tue 15 Jun
  135. Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner: Julianne Moore89%Thu 1 Jul
  136. English Premier League: Top Goalscorer 2026-27: Erling Haaland60%Mon 31 May
  137. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.6%35%Thu 15 Oct
  138. Trump bans more news outlets from White House by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  139. Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner: John Malkovich39%Thu 1 Jul
  140. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?: Anthropic94%Wed 30 Sept
  141. Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.4%43%Thu 15 Oct
  142. Next Regional Board Chair of Värmland?: Åsa Johansson76%Thu 1 Apr
  143. September Inflation China - Annual: 0.7% to 0.8%39%Wed 14 Oct
  144. Will Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No99%Thu 1 Jul
  145. Next Regional Board Chair of Skåne?: Carl Johan Sonesson85%Thu 1 Apr
  146. September Unemployment Rate: 4.1%36%Fri 2 Oct
  147. Next Regional Board Chair of Gävleborg?: Eva Lindberg93%Thu 1 Apr
  148. Next Regional Board Chair of Halland?: Mikaela Waltersson68%Thu 1 Apr
  149. Next Regional Board Chair of Östergötland?: Mattias Ottosson82%Thu 1 Apr
  150. Core CPI MoM - September 2026: 0.2%47%Thu 15 Oct
  151. Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?: No100%Thu 8 Oct
  152. Next Regional Board Chair of Västra Götaland?: My Alnebratt96%Thu 1 Apr
  153. Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?: No95%Thu 8 Oct
  154. PPI YoY - September 2026: 5.9%+36%Fri 16 Oct
  155. Next Regional Board Chair of Blekinge?: Lars Markus Hildingsson83%Thu 1 Apr
  156. Argentina Monthly Inflation - September: 1.9 to 2.1%53%Tue 13 Oct
  157. Next Regional Board Chair of Norrbotten?: Anders Öberg94%Thu 1 Apr
  158. Next Regional Board Chair of Västerbotten?: Peter Olofsson99%Thu 1 Apr
  159. Next Regional Board Chair of Region Kalmar?: Angelica Katsanidou86%Thu 1 Apr
  160. Next Regional Board Chair of Jönköping?: Rachel De Basso80%Thu 1 Apr
  161. Next Regional Board Chair of Örebro?: Jenny Steen85%Thu 1 Apr
  162. Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner: did not happen55%Thu 1 Jul
  163. Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Winner: Anne Hathaway80%Thu 1 Jul
  164. Next Regional Board Chair of Kronoberg?: Henrietta Modig Serrate95%Thu 1 Apr
  165. Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Winner: Paul Giamatti59%Thu 1 Jul
  166. Serie A: Top Goalscorer 2026-27: Donyell Malen41%Mon 31 May
  167. UEFA Champions League: Top Scorer 2026-27: Kylian Mbappé12%Sat 19 Jun
  168. NHL: 2026-27 Calder Trophy: Gavin McKenna88%Thu 1 Jul
  169. Will Romania's S&P credit rating remain at "investment grade" level?: Yes57%Thu 1 Oct
  170. Will Trump insult Xi by end of summit?: No99%Thu 8 Oct
  171. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Wed 4 Nov
  172. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro55%Sun 4 Oct
  173. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No95%Wed 4 Nov
  174. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No94%Sat 31 Oct
  175. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  176. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No59%Sat 3 Oct
  177. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane53%Sat 31 Oct
  178. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes71%Tue 3 Nov
  179. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms22%Sat 10 Oct
  180. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No96%Wed 18 Nov
  181. Trump out as President before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  182. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  183. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei92%Thu 31 Dec
  184. Next French Presidential Election: Jean-Luc Mélenchon58%Sun 18 Apr
  185. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  186. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro71%Sun 4 Oct
  187. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  188. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day91%Fri 8 Jan
  189. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  190. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  191. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes75%Wed 4 Nov
  192. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli91%Sun 6 Dec
  193. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No60%Wed 4 Nov
  194. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  195. VA-05 House Election Winner: John McGuire (R)86%Tue 3 Nov
  196. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes89%Fri 2 Oct
  197. Trump out as President by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  198. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  199. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  200. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  201. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro58%Thu 31 Dec
  202. Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson87%Thu 1 Jul
  203. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  204. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  205. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes70%Tue 3 Nov
  206. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No88%Tue 3 Nov
  207. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  208. Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  209. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  210. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  211. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  212. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  213. US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  214. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  215. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  216. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  217. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  218. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No86%Tue 3 Nov
  219. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  220. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 495%Fri 1 Jan
  221. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  222. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  223. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No80%Tue 5 Jan
  224. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Nithya Raman58%Thu 31 Dec
  225. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers30%Sat 31 Oct
  226. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No99%Wed 4 Nov
  227. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  228. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  229. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No65%Mon 30 Nov
  230. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic56%Thu 31 Dec
  231. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No69%Fri 1 Jan
  232. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  233. Will Matt Gaetz become the next Governor of Florida in 2026?: No99%Thu 26 Nov
  234. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  235. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  236. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No93%Mon 4 Jan
  237. US recession by end of 2026?: No90%Sun 31 Jan
  238. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  239. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  240. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  241. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  242. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  243. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ95%Mon 5 Oct
  244. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes97%Wed 30 Sept
  245. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No64%Fri 1 Jan
  246. Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?: Yes99%Tue 29 Sept
  247. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes92%Wed 14 Oct
  248. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No83%Sun 1 Nov
  249. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  250. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.