38%Lula qualified for Brazil presidential runoff35%Marine Le Pen clinched French Presidential race54%Arsenal clinched the 2027 Premier League title65%Rachel De Basso elected Chair of Jönköping region69%U.S. avoided recession as global Growth topped 2.5%56%Mojtaba Khamenei remained Iran's leader through 202662%Democrats won majorities in the house and senate94%China avoided Taiwan invasion and Japan clash in 202685%Israel struck four countries in 202658%Xavier Becerra elected governor of California60%Democrats captured senate seats in Texas, Michigan, Maine and Alaska34%Olivia Chow elected mayor of Toronto

AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Edition of Wednesday, 29 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Tue 29 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Wednesday, 29 September 2027.

Politics

Lula qualified for Brazil presidential runoff

Michelle Bolsonaro won the Federal District Senate seat while other Bolsonaro allies secured senate victories.

38% certain
lead market 38%next 30%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Jul

On Thursday, 1 July, Brazil's presidential election moved to a second round with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva securing a place in the runoff. Three other contenders, Tarcisio de Frietas, Michelle Bolsonaro and Renan Santos, did not achieve enough votes to advance. The result left Lula as the sole remaining candidate from the left-wing coalition.

In the Federal District Senate race, Michelle Bolsonaro emerged as the leading candidate, finishing first. The result was confirmed on the same day as the presidential runoff qualification.

Read the full report

World

Israel struck four countries in 2026

Israel kept its ceasefire with Iran through October but did not normalize relations with Syria by year-end.

85% certain
lead market 85%next 16%1 venuesettles Sat 31 Oct

Politics

Olivia Chow elected mayor of Toronto

Olivia Chow won Toronto's Mayoral race while Pete Fry secured Vancouver's mayoralty in the October 2026 municipal elections.

34% certain
lead market 34%next 32%1 venuesettles Wed 28 Oct

World

Israel-Iran ceasefire held through September

The Israel-Iran ceasefire survived September, while the United States neither signed a peace pact nor launched a new ceasefire with Iran.

95% certain
lead market 95%next 5%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra91%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  3. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot48%Tue 27 Oct
  4. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  5. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes60%Wed 4 Nov
  6. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No65%Tue 1 Dec
  7. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes71%Tue 3 Nov
  8. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes64%Tue 1 Dec
  9. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen35%Mon 19 Apr
  10. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms22%Sat 10 Oct
  11. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei85%Thu 31 Dec
  12. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes93%Sun 15 Nov
  13. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  14. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party92%Tue 5 Jan
  15. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No93%Sun 15 Nov
  16. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  17. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  18. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No98%Tue 3 Nov
  19. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party62%Tue 3 Nov
  20. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  21. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic99%Wed 30 Sept
  22. US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes97%Wed 30 Sept
  23. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes64%Tue 3 Nov
  24. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  25. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: Yes61%Tue 3 Nov
  26. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  27. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  28. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  29. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Nithya Raman58%Thu 31 Dec
  30. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  31. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  32. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  33. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: Yes62%Wed 4 Nov
  34. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 495%Fri 1 Jan
  35. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  36. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  37. US recession by end of 2026?: No91%Sun 31 Jan
  38. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  40. Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola71%Tue 3 Nov
  41. EPL: 2027 Champion: Arsenal59%Sun 30 May
  42. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes85%Sat 31 Oct
  43. Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  44. Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?: Yes93%Sat 7 Nov
  45. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  46. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  47. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ96%Mon 5 Oct
  48. Will Democrats have 225 or more seats after the 2026 House Elections?: Yes77%Tue 3 Nov
  49. Iran full airspace closure by September 30?: No98%Tue 26 Jan
  50. Largest Company end of September?: NVIDIA100%Thu 1 Oct
  51. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes56%Sat 31 Oct
  52. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No91%Sun 1 Nov
  53. Will the US or China officially announce a Busan trade truce extension past Nov 10, 2026, by November 6, 2026?: Yes97%Fri 6 Nov
  54. China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 4.0–5.0%90%Sun 31 Jan
  55. Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  56. Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?: No82%Thu 1 Oct
  57. Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  58. Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?: No77%Sat 3 Oct
  59. GDP growth in 2026: >2.5%69%Fri 29 Jan
  60. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won: PL99%Sun 4 Oct
  61. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar59%Wed 28 Oct
  62. Next Premier of Quebec: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon97%Mon 5 Oct
  63. Did OpenAI just solve hodge??: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  64. China Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Alex Molcan: Alex Molcan100%Tue 6 Oct
  65. Will the US sign a peace agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan before September 30, 2026?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  66. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes96%Thu 1 Jul
  67. Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  68. Israel and Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations before Israel's elections?: No97%Mon 26 Oct
  69. Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner: Pete Fry65%Sun 18 Oct
  70. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: Anthropic99%Wed 30 Sept
  71. Toronto Mayoral Election Winner: Olivia Chow86%Tue 27 Oct
  72. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-2439%Tue 27 Oct
  73. China Open, Qualification: Jiaqi Wang vs Zhuoxuan Bai: Zhuoxuan Bai54%Tue 6 Oct
  74. Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  75. China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi: Elvina Kalieva73%Tue 6 Oct
  76. Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?: No99%Tue 27 Oct
  77. Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner: PL60%Mon 5 Oct
  78. Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  79. China Open, Qualification: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Xiaodi You: Marina Bassols Ribera92%Tue 6 Oct
  80. Will the date for the next Israeli legislative election be postponed?: No98%Tue 27 Oct
  81. Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?: Yes86%Wed 30 Sept
  82. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes99%Thu 1 Jul
  83. São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place: André do Prado62%Sun 4 Oct
  84. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%52%Thu 15 Oct
  85. São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place: Guilherme Derrite72%Sun 4 Oct
  86. Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes95%Wed 14 Oct
  87. Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place: Bia Kicis58%Mon 5 Oct
  88. Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  89. Paraná Senate Election: 1st Place: Deltan Dallagnol41%Mon 5 Oct
  90. Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No100%Thu 1 Jul
  91. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held: PL99%Mon 5 Oct
  92. Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner: Mark Sutcliffe98%Mon 26 Oct
  93. Santa Catarina Senate Election: 2nd Place: Carlos Bolsonaro51%Mon 5 Oct
  94. Bahia Senate Election: 1st Place: Rui Costa83%Mon 5 Oct
  95. How many Israeli elections before government formed?: 157%Tue 27 Oct
  96. Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No91%Sun 18 Apr
  97. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.6%45%Thu 15 Oct
  98. Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics?: Yes86%Sat 17 Oct
  99. Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?: No55%Thu 1 Oct
  100. Surrey Mayoral Election: Brenda Locke74%Sun 18 Oct
  101. Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?: Alibaba98%Wed 30 Sept
  102. Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?: No92%Wed 30 Sept
  103. Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Zac de Vries62%Sun 18 Oct
  104. English Premier League: Top Goalscorer 2026-27: Erling Haaland54%Mon 31 May
  105. Oshawa, ON Mayoral Election Winner: Tito-Dante Marimpietri69%Tue 27 Oct
  106. China Open, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jie Cui: Botic van de Zandschulp92%Tue 6 Oct
  107. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?: No86%Thu 1 Oct
  108. OpenAI’s valuation end of September 2026?: $900B-$1.00T92%Wed 30 Sept
  109. Federal District Senate Election: 1st Place: Michelle Bolsonaro91%Thu 1 Jul
  110. Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No100%Thu 1 Jul
  111. Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.4%36%Thu 15 Oct
  112. Winnipeg Mayoral Election: Scott Gillingham59%Thu 29 Oct
  113. Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  114. Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No92%Sun 18 Apr
  115. September Inflation China - Annual: 0.9% to 1.0%39%Wed 14 Oct
  116. Israel election: will Likud lose seats?: Yes93%Wed 28 Oct
  117. Richmond Mayoral Election: Rob Howard58%Sun 18 Oct
  118. Next Regional Board Chair of Värmland?: Åsa Johansson77%Thu 1 Apr
  119. Markham, ON Mayoral Election Winner: Frank Scarpitti95%Tue 27 Oct
  120. Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes92%Thu 1 Jul
  121. Huon Valley Mayoral Election Winner: Paul Gibson34%Wed 28 Oct
  122. Will Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No100%Thu 1 Jul
  123. Next Regional Board Chair of Skåne?: Carl Johan Sonesson84%Thu 1 Apr
  124. Revelstoke, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Gary Sulz55%Sat 17 Oct
  125. Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No92%Thu 1 Jul
  126. Paraná Senate Election: 2nd Place: Alexandre Curi38%Thu 1 Jul
  127. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.025T by September 30?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  128. Will the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature go to a writer who writes mainly in English?: No72%Thu 8 Oct
  129. Next Regional Board Chair of Gävleborg?: Eva Lindberg96%Thu 1 Apr
  130. Argentina Monthly Inflation - September: 1.9 to 2.1%52%Tue 13 Oct
  131. Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place: Carol de Toni77%Thu 1 Jul
  132. Israel’s next prime minister after the 2026 election: Gadi Eisenkot61%Sun 25 Oct
  133. Next Regional Board Chair of Halland?: Mikaela Waltersson66%Thu 1 Apr
  134. Next Regional Board Chair of Östergötland?: Mattias Ottosson81%Thu 1 Apr
  135. Will a woman win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics, Chemistry, Medicine, or Economics?: Yes70%Mon 12 Oct
  136. US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?: Yes80%Fri 9 Oct
  137. PPI YoY - September 2026: 5.9%+33%Fri 16 Oct
  138. Next Regional Board Chair of Västra Götaland?: My Alnebratt96%Thu 1 Apr
  139. Next Regional Board Chair of Blekinge?: Lars Markus Hildingsson76%Thu 1 Apr
  140. Next Regional Board Chair of Norrbotten?: Anders Öberg94%Thu 1 Apr
  141. Next Regional Board Chair of Västerbotten?: Peter Olofsson99%Thu 1 Apr
  142. Next Regional Board Chair of Region Kalmar?: Angelica Katsanidou87%Thu 1 Apr
  143. Next Regional Board Chair of Örebro?: Jenny Steen85%Thu 1 Apr
  144. Next Regional Board Chair of Jönköping?: Rachel De Basso65%Thu 1 Apr
  145. Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?: No82%Thu 1 Jul
  146. Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?: Yes69%Sun 30 May
  147. Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?: No63%Fri 16 Oct
  148. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7?: No83%Thu 8 Oct
  149. Will the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be awarded (in whole or in part) to an organization?: No59%Fri 9 Oct
  150. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro56%Sun 4 Oct
  151. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No95%Wed 4 Nov
  152. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No94%Sat 31 Oct
  153. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  154. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No57%Sat 3 Oct
  155. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)94%Fri 1 Jan
  156. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane44%Sat 31 Oct
  157. Fed Decision in October?: 25 bps increase68%Thu 29 Oct
  158. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  159. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No70%Tue 3 Nov
  160. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No95%Wed 18 Nov
  161. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  162. Annie Andrews wins South Carolina US Senate election?: No84%Tue 3 Nov
  163. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro75%Sun 4 Oct
  164. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  165. Trump out as President before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  166. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  167. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes75%Wed 4 Nov
  168. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  169. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No61%Wed 4 Nov
  170. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  171. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  172. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  173. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  174. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  175. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro66%Thu 31 Dec
  176. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes97%Wed 30 Sept
  177. Trump out as President by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  178. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  179. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  180. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No88%Tue 3 Nov
  181. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  182. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli92%Sun 6 Dec
  183. VA-06 House Election Winner: Ben Cline (R)86%Wed 4 Nov
  184. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  185. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No91%Tue 3 Nov
  186. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  187. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep61%Tue 3 Nov
  188. Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson75%Thu 1 Jul
  189. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  190. Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  191. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  192. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: ≥ 4.5%49%Fri 1 Jan
  193. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  194. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  195. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  196. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  197. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  198. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  199. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  200. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes61%Tue 3 Nov
  201. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  202. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  203. Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  204. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  205. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  206. Blue wave in 2026?: Yes86%Tue 5 Jan
  207. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No99%Wed 4 Nov
  208. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No84%Mon 30 Nov
  209. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  210. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  211. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  212. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  213. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  214. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  215. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  216. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  217. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?: No87%Thu 1 Oct
  218. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No80%Tue 5 Jan
  219. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  220. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  221. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  222. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  223. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers29%Sat 31 Oct
  224. Bitcoin $87,500 in September 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  225. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  226. Will Matt Gaetz become the next Governor of Florida in 2026?: No99%Thu 26 Nov
  227. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  228. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: Yes93%Sun 1 Nov
  229. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202696%Fri 1 Jan
  230. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  231. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  232. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day94%Fri 8 Jan
  233. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes61%Mon 23 Nov
  234. Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?: Yes99%Tue 29 Sept
  235. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes93%Wed 14 Oct
  236. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No82%Tue 6 Oct
  237. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  238. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No72%Fri 1 Jan
  239. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  240. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Vancouver Whitecaps FC30%Fri 1 Jan
  241. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: SpaceX55%Thu 31 Dec
  242. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  243. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No95%Mon 2 Nov
  244. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  245. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro53%Fri 2 Oct
  246. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026?: No83%Tue 29 Sept
  247. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Buffalo Bills13%Thu 1 Apr
  248. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA76%Fri 1 Jan
  249. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  250. Anthropic IPO in October?: No96%Sat 31 Oct
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.