38%Marine Le Pen won 2027 French Presidential election55%Spider-Man: Brand New Day topped 2026 box office85%Mojtaba Khamenei remained Iran's leader through 202653%Anthropic's model ranked best AI system in September65%None of four new crypto projects hit valuation targets on day one45%Fed ended 2026 with policy rate at 4.25%82%Ukraine remained outside NATO and war continued without ceasefire in 202696%China did not invade Taiwan in 202693%Putin, Zelenskyy and Luxon remained in office by year-end56%Democrats secured majorities in house and senate48%ECB left rates unchanged as Eurozone grew modestly60%Olivia Chow won Toronto mayoralty in 2026 municipal elections

AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Edition of Thursday, 30 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 30 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Thursday, 30 September 2027.

Politics

Marine Le Pen won 2027 French Presidential election

Marine Le Pen secured the presidency as Mathilde Panot, Laurent Wauquiez and Michel-Edouard Leclerc did not run.

38% certain
lead market 38%next 16%1 venuesettles Mon 19 Apr

Marine Le Pen won the 2027 French Presidential election. The result confirmed her position as president. Jordan Bardella did not advance to the second round.

Mathilde Panot chose not to announce a candidacy for the election. Her decision was confirmed on 18 April. The absence removed a potential contender from the ballot.

Read the full report

World

China did not invade Taiwan in 2026

It also avoided blockading the island and any military clash through 2026.

96% certain
lead market 96%next 4%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

Politics

PL won most Senate seats and Chamber of Deputies

The Liberal Party secured the top spot in both chambers, while Bia Kicis placed second in the Federal District Senate race.

62% certain
lead market 62%next 16%1 venuesettles Mon 5 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No94%Sat 31 Oct
  3. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot46%Wed 28 Oct
  4. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  5. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)95%Fri 1 Jan
  6. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party92%Wed 4 Nov
  7. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No65%Tue 1 Dec
  8. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  9. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes62%Tue 1 Dec
  10. Fed Decision in October?: No change55%Thu 29 Oct
  11. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen38%Mon 19 Apr
  12. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms27%Sat 10 Oct
  13. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep62%Wed 4 Nov
  14. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei89%Thu 31 Dec
  15. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes94%Sun 15 Nov
  16. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  17. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No94%Sun 15 Nov
  18. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro72%Mon 5 Oct
  19. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  20. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No98%Tue 3 Nov
  21. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party63%Wed 4 Nov
  22. VA-05 House Election Winner: John McGuire (R)90%Wed 4 Nov
  23. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  24. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  25. Trump out as President by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  26. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  27. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic99%Wed 30 Sept
  28. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  29. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  30. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  31. Bitcoin $87,500 in September 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  32. Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  33. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  34. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes61%Tue 3 Nov
  35. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  36. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day93%Fri 8 Jan
  37. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  38. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  39. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  40. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  41. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  42. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  43. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%45%Fri 1 Jan
  44. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No82%Tue 5 Jan
  45. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  47. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  48. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  49. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  50. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  51. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  52. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No94%Wed 30 Sept
  53. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: Yes56%Wed 4 Nov
  54. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  55. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  56. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  57. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Renan Santos51%Mon 5 Oct
  58. US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on October 1st 2026?: Yes99%Thu 1 Oct
  59. US Average Gas Price Is $4.600 or more on any day in September 2026?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  60. OR-06 House Election Margin of Victory: Democrat 25-30%57%Wed 4 Nov
  61. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  62. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  63. Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?: Yes93%Sat 7 Nov
  64. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No95%Sat 31 Oct
  65. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  66. Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  67. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes71%Wed 28 Oct
  68. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  69. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  70. US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on October 1 2026?: Yes98%Thu 1 Oct
  71. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No73%Fri 1 Jan
  72. Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No65%Fri 1 Jan
  73. Iran full airspace closure by September 30?: No99%Tue 26 Jan
  74. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  75. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No89%Thu 31 Dec
  76. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  77. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No85%Sun 1 Nov
  78. Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  79. Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  80. Will Anthropic’s IPO S-1 be public by 16 October 2026?: Yes53%Thu 15 Oct
  81. Bitcoin price reaches 75k USD at any point before the end of the month: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  82. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  83. StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  84. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 30?: Yes96%Wed 30 Sept
  85. Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  86. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%55%Mon 5 Oct
  87. Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  88. Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  89. US airstrikes Yemen in September?: No94%Wed 30 Sept
  90. Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner: Lula74%Mon 5 Oct
  91. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar57%Wed 28 Oct
  92. São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Tarcísio de Freitas99%Mon 5 Oct
  93. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo94%Mon 5 Oct
  94. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  95. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  96. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)84%Sun 4 Oct
  97. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  98. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  99. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won: PL99%Mon 5 Oct
  100. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day55%Mon 1 Feb
  101. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes81%Mon 5 Oct
  102. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Elmano de Freitas66%Mon 5 Oct
  103. Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  104. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 1?: Yes92%Thu 1 Oct
  105. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro82%Mon 5 Oct
  106. Israel and Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations before Israel's elections?: No97%Mon 26 Oct
  107. ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: No change79%Fri 30 Oct
  108. Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner: Pete Fry62%Sun 18 Oct
  109. Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  110. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-2437%Wed 28 Oct
  111. Will bitcoin go below 9.000$ at the end of this month?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  112. Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  113. Bahia Governor Election Winner: Jerônimo Rodrigues58%Mon 5 Oct
  114. Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 September 28-October 4?: No89%Mon 5 Oct
  115. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?: 2-4%43%Sun 4 Oct
  116. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco78%Mon 5 Oct
  117. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?: 39%+86%Sun 4 Oct
  118. Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 28-October 4?: No88%Mon 5 Oct
  119. Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?: No100%Tue 27 Oct
  120. Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place: Bia Kicis80%Mon 5 Oct
  121. Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner: PL65%Mon 5 Oct
  122. Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner : Jorginho Mello99%Mon 5 Oct
  123. São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place: Guilherme Derrite70%Mon 5 Oct
  124. Will the date for the next Israeli legislative election be postponed?: No98%Tue 27 Oct
  125. What price will Bitcoin hit in September 2026?: Reach $85,00038%Thu 1 Oct
  126. Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  127. São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place: André do Prado62%Mon 5 Oct
  128. Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner: Mark Sutcliffe89%Tue 27 Oct
  129. Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes95%Wed 14 Oct
  130. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%52%Thu 15 Oct
  131. Toronto Mayoral Election Winner: Olivia Chow88%Tue 27 Oct
  132. How many Israeli elections before government formed?: 163%Tue 27 Oct
  133. Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026: 0.8-1.1%48%Fri 30 Oct
  134. Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 1.0-1.2%59%Fri 30 Oct
  135. Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No91%Mon 19 Apr
  136. Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics?: Yes86%Sat 17 Oct
  137. "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office: <17m82%Sun 4 Oct
  138. Surrey Mayoral Election: Brenda Locke75%Sun 18 Oct
  139. Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Zac de Vries63%Sun 18 Oct
  140. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.6%50%Thu 15 Oct
  141. Winnipeg Mayoral Election: Scott Gillingham61%Thu 29 Oct
  142. Richmond Mayoral Election: Rob Howard60%Sun 18 Oct
  143. Israel election: will Likud lose seats?: Yes94%Wed 28 Oct
  144. Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No92%Sun 18 Apr
  145. Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes92%Thu 1 Jul
  146. Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 300k?: No99%Fri 2 Oct
  147. Will "Digger" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: No94%Mon 5 Oct
  148. Kamloops, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Mike O'Reilly66%Sun 18 Oct
  149. Markham, ON Mayoral Election Winner: Frank Scarpitti91%Tue 27 Oct
  150. Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No92%Thu 1 Jul
  151. Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 150k?: Yes91%Fri 2 Oct
  152. Will the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature go to a writer who writes mainly in English?: No72%Thu 8 Oct
  153. Core CPI MoM - September 2026: 0.2%41%Thu 15 Oct
  154. Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes52%Thu 1 Jul
  155. Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No95%Mon 19 Apr
  156. Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.4%95%Thu 15 Oct
  157. Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No97%Sat 17 Apr
  158. Will a woman win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics, Chemistry, Medicine, or Economics?: Yes70%Mon 12 Oct
  159. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes93%Thu 1 Jul
  160. Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?: No97%Sun 18 Apr
  161. PPI YoY - September 2026: 5.9%+33%Fri 16 Oct
  162. Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks?: No83%Thu 8 Oct
  163. Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes67%Thu 1 Jul
  164. Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes88%Thu 1 Jul
  165. Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: Yes89%Mon 19 Apr
  166. Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No70%Thu 1 Jul
  167. Will François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No94%Mon 19 Apr
  168. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No53%Mon 19 Apr
  169. Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes61%Thu 1 Jul
  170. Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No90%Sun 18 Apr
  171. Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No95%Sun 18 Apr
  172. Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes53%Thu 1 Jul
  173. Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No96%Sun 18 Apr
  174. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7?: No84%Thu 8 Oct
  175. Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No93%Sun 18 Apr
  176. Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?: No65%Fri 16 Oct
  177. Will the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be awarded (in whole or in part) to an organization?: No59%Fri 9 Oct
  178. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Wed 4 Nov
  179. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro57%Mon 5 Oct
  180. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No95%Wed 4 Nov
  181. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  182. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No58%Sat 3 Oct
  183. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes60%Wed 4 Nov
  184. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane45%Sat 31 Oct
  185. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes71%Tue 3 Nov
  186. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No69%Tue 3 Nov
  187. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No95%Wed 18 Nov
  188. Annie Andrews wins South Carolina US Senate election?: No84%Tue 3 Nov
  189. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  190. Trump out as President before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  191. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  192. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  193. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes75%Wed 4 Nov
  194. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  195. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No60%Wed 4 Nov
  196. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  197. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  198. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  199. US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  200. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro72%Thu 31 Dec
  201. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  202. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes97%Wed 30 Sept
  203. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No71%Wed 4 Nov
  204. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  205. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  206. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No88%Tue 3 Nov
  207. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  208. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli92%Sun 6 Dec
  209. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  210. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No91%Tue 3 Nov
  211. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  212. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  213. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  214. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  215. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: Yes61%Tue 3 Nov
  216. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  217. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  218. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  219. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  220. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  221. Blue wave in 2026?: Yes88%Tue 5 Jan
  222. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  223. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No99%Wed 4 Nov
  224. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No84%Mon 30 Nov
  225. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  226. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  227. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  228. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  229. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  230. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  231. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers29%Sat 31 Oct
  232. Will Matt Gaetz become the next Governor of Florida in 2026?: No99%Thu 26 Nov
  233. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: Yes95%Sun 1 Nov
  234. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  235. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  236. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes61%Mon 23 Nov
  237. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  238. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No84%Tue 6 Oct
  239. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes93%Wed 14 Oct
  240. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No75%Fri 1 Jan
  241. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA78%Fri 1 Jan
  242. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase76%Wed 9 Dec
  243. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  244. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No95%Mon 2 Nov
  245. US recession by end of 2026?: No91%Sun 31 Jan
  246. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No87%Sun 1 Nov
  247. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: SpaceX52%Thu 31 Dec
  248. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro53%Fri 2 Oct
  249. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Buffalo Bills13%Thu 1 Apr
  250. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.