40%Marine Le Pen won the 2027 French Presidential election28%John Malkovich won best actor at 2027 Oscars61%Spider-Man: Brand New Day topped 2026 box office61%Spider-Man: Brand New Day topped 2026 Box Office51%Fed finished 2026 at 4.25% after two rate hikes81%OpenAI failed to reach $2 trillion valuation in 202690%Putin, Trump, Zelenskyy, Infantino and McConnell all stayed in office through 202666%Extended token topped $150 million while others fell short85%United States did not declare war on Iran in 202668%No ceasefire or Peace deal reached in Russia-Ukraine war93%Israel failed to normalize ties with Indonesia and Saudi Arabia in 202662%Democrats captured both house and senate in 2026 Midterms

AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Sunday, 4 October 2026
Edition of Monday, 4 October 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sun 4 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Monday, 4 October 2027.

Politics

Marine Le Pen won the 2027 French Presidential election

Jordan Bardella missed the runoff and Jean-Luc mélenc​hon confirmed his candidacy.

40% certain
lead market 40%next 15%1 venuesettles Mon 19 Apr

On Thursday, 1 July 2027, Marine Le Pen was declared the winner of the 2027 French Presidential election. The result followed the second-round vote held after the first round on 18 April. Le Pen's victory ended the contest that had featured several high-profile candidates.

The final ballot featured Marine Le Pen and her opponent from the second round, while Jordan Bardella failed to reach that stage. Bardella's elimination was confirmed on Monday 19 April, when the first-round results were finalized. His absence left the runoff to be contested between Le Pen and the remaining finalist.

Read the full report

Economics

ECB left rates unchanged

Eurozone GDP grew between 0.8% and 1.1% in Q3, while Germany posted 1.3% growth.

39% certain
lead market 39%next 36%1 venuesettles Fri 30 Oct

Economics

Fed left rates unchanged, zero dissent

The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate steady while September inflation showed a modest monthly rise.

35% certain
lead market 35%next 22%1 venuesettles Wed 28 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  3. Fed Decision in October?: No change81%Thu 29 Oct
  4. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot44%Wed 28 Oct
  5. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party94%Wed 4 Nov
  6. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep64%Wed 4 Nov
  7. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  8. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen40%Mon 19 Apr
  9. Maine Senate Election Winner: Troy Jackson (D)61%Wed 4 Nov
  10. Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)61%Wed 4 Nov
  11. Trump out as President before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  12. Michigan Senate Election Winner: Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%Wed 4 Nov
  13. Ohio Senate Election Winner: Sherrod Brown (D)61%Wed 4 Nov
  14. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party65%Wed 4 Nov
  15. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day90%Fri 8 Jan
  16. Wisconsin Governor Election Winner: David Crowley (D)81%Wed 4 Nov
  17. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No70%Wed 4 Nov
  18. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%51%Fri 1 Jan
  19. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  20. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  21. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  22. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  23. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  24. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  25. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  26. Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes74%Thu 10 Dec
  27. New Hampshire Senate Election Winner: Chris Pappas (D)86%Wed 4 Nov
  28. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase73%Wed 9 Dec
  29. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes84%Sat 31 Oct
  30. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  31. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  32. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No85%Sun 1 Nov
  33. Michigan Governor Election Winner: Jocelyn Benson (D)91%Wed 4 Nov
  34. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  35. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Google60%Sat 31 Oct
  36. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  37. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No95%Mon 4 Jan
  38. North Carolina Senate Election Winner: Roy Cooper (D)95%Wed 4 Nov
  39. Georgia Senate Election Winner: Jon Ossoff (D) 95%Wed 4 Nov
  40. Nevada Governor Election Winner: Aaron Ford (D)55%Wed 4 Nov
  41. Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  42. Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola73%Wed 4 Nov
  43. MO-05 House Election Margin of Victory: Democrat 3%+62%Wed 4 Nov
  44. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No74%Fri 1 Jan
  45. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No73%Fri 1 Jan
  47. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?: No97%Sun 1 Nov
  48. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No90%Thu 31 Dec
  49. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes64%Wed 4 Nov
  50. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  51. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No66%Tue 1 Dec
  52. Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?: No68%Thu 31 Dec
  53. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes63%Tue 1 Dec
  54. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  55. Colts vs. Commanders: Colts63%Sun 4 Oct
  56. StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  57. Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  58. Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  59. Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  60. Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  61. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Likud54%Wed 28 Oct
  62. [ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?: No90%Thu 31 Dec
  63. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes71%Tue 3 Nov
  64. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  65. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No70%Tue 3 Nov
  66. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  67. Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  68. Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  69. Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  70. ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: No change93%Fri 30 Oct
  71. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)64%Thu 31 Dec
  72. Spread: Colts (-3.5): Colts53%Sun 4 Oct
  73. Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  74. Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?: Yes66%Fri 1 Jan
  75. Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?: Yes64%Sun 1 Nov
  76. Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  77. Iowa Governor Election Winner: Rob Sand (D)82%Wed 4 Nov
  78. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes94%Sun 15 Nov
  79. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?: No91%Tue 5 Jan
  80. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No96%Fri 29 Jan
  81. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-2436%Wed 28 Oct
  82. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day61%Mon 1 Feb
  83. Packers vs. Buccaneers: Packers55%Sun 4 Oct
  84. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  85. Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?: No97%Sat 2 Jan
  86. OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  87. Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  88. Spread: Packers (-3.5): Buccaneers55%Sun 4 Oct
  89. Spread: Cardinals (-2.5): Giants54%Sun 4 Oct
  90. WNBA: 2026 MVP: A'ja Wilson99%Sun 15 Nov
  91. Rams vs. Eagles: Rams61%Sun 4 Oct
  92. Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?: No99%Fri 29 Jan
  93. Fed decisions (Sep–Dec): Hike–Pause–Hike62%Wed 9 Dec
  94. Spread: Bills (-6.5): Bills57%Sun 4 Oct
  95. Spread: Vikings (-3.5): Vikings53%Sun 4 Oct
  96. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  97. Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  98. Cowboys vs. Texans: Texans68%Sun 4 Oct
  99. Billboard #1 Artist 2026: Morgan Wallen85%Thu 1 Apr
  100. Broncos vs. 49ers: O/U 47.5: Over60%Sun 4 Oct
  101. Spread: 49ers (-2.5): 49ers54%Sun 4 Oct
  102. "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office: <17m99%Sun 4 Oct
  103. Jets vs. Bears: Bears61%Sun 4 Oct
  104. Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?: Yes85%Sun 1 Nov
  105. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?: Anthropic77%Sun 1 Nov
  106. Spread: Rams (-3.5): Eagles51%Sun 4 Oct
  107. Jaguars vs. Bengals: Bengals58%Sun 4 Oct
  108. China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?: 4.3-4.6%78%Tue 20 Oct
  109. "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes): <9m98%Sun 4 Oct
  110. Spread: Bengals (-2.5): Bengals62%Sun 4 Oct
  111. "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office: 28m+100%Sun 4 Oct
  112. Dolphins vs. Vikings: Vikings65%Sun 4 Oct
  113. Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  114. Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026: 0.8-1.1%39%Fri 30 Oct
  115. Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5): Packers80%Sun 4 Oct
  116. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%44%Thu 15 Oct
  117. IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?: No97%Sun 1 Nov
  118. Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 1.3%+41%Fri 30 Oct
  119. Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On): Google57%Sat 31 Oct
  120. Spread: Texans (-2.5): Texans55%Sun 4 Oct
  121. Spread: Ravens (-3.5): Ravens61%Sun 4 Oct
  122. Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?: Google44%Sat 31 Oct
  123. Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October?: OpenAI74%Sat 31 Oct
  124. #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On): Meta52%Sat 31 Oct
  125. Chiefs vs. Raiders: Chiefs62%Sun 4 Oct
  126. Spread: Raiders (-3.5): Chiefs56%Sun 4 Oct
  127. Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?: Google55%Sat 31 Oct
  128. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?: Anthropic61%Sat 31 Oct
  129. September Inflation China - Annual: 0.9% to 1.0%61%Wed 14 Oct
  130. US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?: Yes91%Fri 9 Oct
  131. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?: Anthropic57%Sat 31 Oct
  132. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?: Anthropic76%Sat 31 Oct
  133. Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October?: OpenAI87%Sat 31 Oct
  134. Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.4%36%Thu 15 Oct
  135. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes71%Wed 28 Oct
  136. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.6%56%Thu 15 Oct
  137. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  138. Israel election: will Likud lose seats?: Yes90%Wed 28 Oct
  139. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?: Anthropic77%Sat 31 Oct
  140. Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes92%Thu 1 Jul
  141. Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner: John Malkovich54%Thu 1 Jul
  142. Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?: No85%Sun 1 Nov
  143. Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?: OpenAI89%Sat 31 Oct
  144. Argentina Monthly Inflation - September: 1.9 to 2.1%57%Tue 13 Oct
  145. Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  146. Israel’s next prime minister after the 2026 election: Gadi Eisenkot61%Sun 25 Oct
  147. Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No95%Mon 19 Apr
  148. Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner: Inde Navarrette80%Thu 1 Jul
  149. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes94%Thu 1 Jul
  150. Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes82%Thu 1 Jul
  151. Will "Sense and Sensibility" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: Yes90%Mon 19 Oct
  152. Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes89%Thu 1 Jul
  153. Fed interest rate decision — October 2026: No change81%Wed 28 Oct
  154. Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: Yes91%Mon 19 Apr
  155. Core CPI MoM - September 2026: 0.3%65%Thu 15 Oct
  156. Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner: Wild Horse Nine71%Thu 1 Jul
  157. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No59%Mon 19 Apr
  158. How many dissent at the October Fed meeting?: 035%Wed 28 Oct
  159. Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Winner: Paul Giamatti52%Thu 1 Jul
  160. Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes55%Thu 1 Jul
  161. Oscars 2027: Best Makeup and Hairstyling Winner: The Odyssey28%Thu 1 Jul
  162. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro62%Mon 5 Oct
  163. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  164. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Lamine Yamal46%Sat 31 Oct
  165. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  166. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)96%Fri 1 Jan
  167. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms22%Sat 10 Oct
  168. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei89%Thu 31 Dec
  169. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  170. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  171. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  172. Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?: No95%Thu 31 Dec
  173. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro61%Mon 5 Oct
  174. US recession by end of 2026?: No93%Sun 31 Jan
  175. VA-05 House Election Winner: John McGuire (R)90%Wed 4 Nov
  176. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  177. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  178. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro69%Thu 31 Dec
  179. Iowa Senate Election Winner: Ashley Hinson (R)58%Wed 4 Nov
  180. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  181. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli93%Sun 6 Dec
  182. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  183. OpenAI IPO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  184. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  185. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic54%Thu 31 Dec
  186. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  187. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  188. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  189. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  190. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Renan Santos58%Mon 5 Oct
  191. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  192. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  193. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  194. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No81%Tue 5 Jan
  195. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  196. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  197. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  198. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No96%Wed 18 Nov
  199. Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  200. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  201. Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner: Lula61%Mon 5 Oct
  202. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers36%Sat 31 Oct
  203. Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  204. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No96%Wed 4 Nov
  205. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  206. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA83%Fri 1 Jan
  207. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  208. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ97%Tue 6 Oct
  209. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes82%Sat 31 Oct
  210. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Buffalo Bills13%Thu 1 Apr
  211. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  213. All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  214. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No96%Mon 30 Nov
  215. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No65%Fri 1 Jan
  216. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  217. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Nashville SC29%Fri 1 Jan
  218. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 4?: Yes94%Sun 4 Oct
  219. EPL: 2027 Champion: Arsenal59%Sun 30 May
  220. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  221. UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion: Barcelona20%Sun 30 May
  222. Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  223. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: Yes64%Fri 1 Jan
  224. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes97%Mon 5 Oct
  225. Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?: Yes99%Fri 1 Jan
  226. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  227. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  228. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  229. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  230. Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  231. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%50%Mon 5 Oct
  232. Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  233. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No93%Mon 5 Oct
  234. Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  235. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  236. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  237. Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  238. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202698%Fri 1 Jan
  239. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  240. Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  241. Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  242. Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 September 28-October 4?: No97%Mon 5 Oct
  243. Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  244. Will GameStop acquire eBay?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  245. Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 September 28-October 4?: No97%Mon 5 Oct
  246. US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  247. Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  248. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic50%Thu 31 Dec
  249. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 577%Fri 1 Jan
  250. Bachelorette Season 22 Winner: Other (Season Cancelled)88%Mon 30 Nov
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.