60%OpenAI shelved $1 trillion IPO valuation82%Bad Bunny topped Spotify's 2026 year-end list67%S&P 500 closed below $795 as Fed kept rates at 4.25%90%Putin, McConnell and Infantino all remained in office81%OpenAI failed to meet 2026 milestones85%Mojtaba Khamenei remained Iran's leader in 202686%US, Russia and NATO avoided war in 202669%Ukraine made no war gains and failed to join NATO in 202650%United States ended its blockade of Iran33%Republicans held 22 to 23 governorships after 2026 Midterms65%Democrats captured both chambers and house majority in 2026 Midterms72%Xavier Becerra elected governor of California

AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Tuesday, 6 October 2026
Edition of Wednesday, 6 October 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Tue 6 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Wednesday, 6 October 2027.

Economics

OpenAI shelved $1 trillion IPO valuation

Kimi announced an IPO filing and DeepSeek postponed its offering before the June deadline.

60% certain
lead market 60%next 41%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Oct

OpenAI abandoned a plan for a $1 trillion IPO valuation. At the same time, Moonshot AI's Kimi filed for an IPO while DeepSeek chose not to file by the June 30 deadline.

OpenAI's decision was confirmed on Thursday 1 July when the company announced it would not pursue the trillion-dollar valuation. The announcement ended speculation about a record-size offering. No valuation figure was provided.

Read the full report

World

US, Russia and NATO avoided war in 2026

The United States did not declare war on Iran and remained a NATO member throughout the year.

86% certain
lead market 86%next 14%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

World|Politics

United States ended its blockade of Iran

The blockade was lifted and the United States acquired no territory in Greenland or Cuba in 2026.

50% certain
lead market 50%next 50%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot46%Wed 28 Oct
  3. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  4. Fed Decision in October?: No change79%Thu 29 Oct
  5. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party93%Wed 4 Nov
  6. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep65%Wed 4 Nov
  7. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  8. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)95%Fri 1 Jan
  9. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei85%Thu 31 Dec
  10. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms15%Sat 10 Oct
  11. CA-28 House Election Winner: Judy Chu (D)89%Wed 4 Nov
  12. Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?: No95%Thu 31 Dec
  13. US recession by end of 2026?: No93%Sun 31 Jan
  14. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party66%Wed 4 Nov
  15. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  16. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No72%Wed 4 Nov
  17. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  18. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%67%Fri 1 Jan
  19. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  20. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  21. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  22. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  23. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  24. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  25. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  26. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No82%Sun 1 Nov
  27. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  28. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes90%Sat 31 Oct
  29. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Google69%Sat 31 Oct
  30. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  31. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No94%Mon 4 Jan
  32. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  33. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  34. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  35. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  36. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  37. US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  39. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No90%Thu 31 Dec
  40. US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  41. Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  42. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  43. Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?: No69%Thu 31 Dec
  44. Top Spotify Artist 2026: Bad Bunny82%Mon 1 Feb
  45. US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?: Yes50%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  47. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar52%Wed 28 Oct
  48. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  49. US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  50. Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  51. Elon Musk # tweets September 29 - October 6, 2026?: 200-21960%Tue 6 Oct
  52. [ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?: No90%Thu 31 Dec
  53. Will Russia invade another country in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  54. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  55. Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?: No66%Sun 1 Nov
  56. Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?: 200-21936%Fri 9 Oct
  57. GPT-6.1+ Astra released in October?: No76%Sat 31 Oct
  58. Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  59. US GDP growth in Q3 2026?: ≥3.0%64%Fri 30 Oct
  60. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-2435%Wed 28 Oct
  61. How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?: 22–2333%Wed 4 Nov
  62. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No94%Tue 3 Nov
  63. Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?: No97%Sat 2 Jan
  64. OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  65. Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  66. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  67. Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?: Yes83%Sun 1 Nov
  68. Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  69. Gianni Infantino announces he is out as FIFA President before end of 2026?: No90%Thu 31 Dec
  70. Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?: No88%Sun 1 Nov
  71. Billboard #1 Artist 2026: Morgan Wallen86%Thu 1 Apr
  72. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No97%Mon 2 Nov
  73. Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  74. When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?: No release by November 185%Sun 18 Oct
  75. Israel military action against Lebanon on October 15?: Yes76%Fri 16 Oct
  76. Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?: No98%Wed 4 Nov
  77. Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  78. China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?: 4.3-4.6%69%Tue 20 Oct
  79. Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  80. Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026: 0.8-1.1%39%Fri 30 Oct
  81. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?: Anthropic79%Sun 1 Nov
  82. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  83. Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 1.3%+42%Fri 30 Oct
  84. Elon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?: No99%Thu 5 Nov
  85. South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?: 3.0–3.4%47%Wed 28 Oct
  86. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?: Yes74%Sat 31 Oct
  87. Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On): Google64%Sat 31 Oct
  88. Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?: No77%Tue 3 Nov
  89. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?: Anthropic55%Sat 31 Oct
  90. Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?: Anthropic84%Sun 1 Nov
  91. Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 2.0-2.5%30%Fri 30 Oct
  92. What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?: Unabomber99%Tue 6 Oct
  93. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?: Anthropic74%Sat 31 Oct
  94. Second-best AI Lab end of October?: Anthropic72%Sat 31 Oct
  95. Donald Trump # Truth Social posts September 29 - October 6, 2026?: 140-15959%Tue 6 Oct
  96. What will be the top global Netflix show this week?: East of Eden: Limited Series97%Tue 6 Oct
  97. What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?: did not happen97%Thu 1 Jul
  98. What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?: The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part99%Tue 6 Oct
  99. Next Mayor of Prague: Tomáš Portlík58%Sat 10 Oct
  100. Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 2 - October 9, 2026?: 160-17931%Fri 9 Oct
  101. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?: Anthropic74%Sat 31 Oct
  102. What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?: East of Eden: Limited Series98%Tue 6 Oct
  103. Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM): 0.0 to 0.1%42%Fri 30 Oct
  104. What will be the top US Netflix show this week?: A Different World: Season 199%Tue 6 Oct
  105. What will be the #2 global Netflix show this week?: Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 197%Tue 6 Oct
  106. Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?: 40-45%60%Thu 8 Oct
  107. Next Mayor of Brno: Jakub Hruška50%Sat 10 Oct
  108. Khamenei # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026?: <598%Tue 6 Oct
  109. What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?: The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part99%Tue 6 Oct
  110. Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory: Labour 15%+29%Thu 8 Oct
  111. Will DeepSeek IPO by September 30, 2027?: Yes60%Fri 1 Oct
  112. Khamenei # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026?: <581%Fri 9 Oct
  113. Best AI model on October 12?: Other94%Tue 13 Oct
  114. Will DeepSeek IPO by June 30, 2027?: No70%Thu 1 Jul
  115. NYC Mayor # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026?: 20-3973%Fri 9 Oct
  116. Zelenskyy # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026?: 80-9942%Fri 9 Oct
  117. Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $74 Week of October 5 2026?: Yes75%Fri 9 Oct
  118. Next Mayor of Olomouc: Miroslava Ferancová87%Sat 10 Oct
  119. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $790 on October 6?: No99%Tue 6 Oct
  120. Next Mayor of Liberec: Lukáš Hájek75%Sat 10 Oct
  121. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $795 on October 6?: No100%Tue 6 Oct
  122. Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share?: did not happen89%Thu 8 Oct
  123. Next Mayor of Ostrava: Richard Vereš61%Sat 10 Oct
  124. Next Mayor of Plzeň: Roman Zarzycký85%Sat 10 Oct
  125. CZ # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026?: 20-3949%Fri 9 Oct
  126. Will Kimi (Moonshot AI) IPO by June 30, 2027?: Yes72%Thu 1 Jul
  127. Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: 3rd Place: Peter Newman21%Fri 9 Oct
  128. How many views will the #1 Show on Netflix have this week?: 6-9M97%Tue 6 Oct
  129. What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?: Unabomber96%Tue 6 Oct
  130. Will a woman win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics, Chemistry, Medicine, or Economics?: Yes66%Mon 12 Oct
  131. Will the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature go to a writer who writes mainly in English?: No75%Thu 8 Oct
  132. How many views will the #1 Movie on Netflix have this week?: 24-28M99%Tue 6 Oct
  133. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  134. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane46%Sat 31 Oct
  135. Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)63%Wed 4 Nov
  136. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  137. Maine Senate Election Winner: Troy Jackson (D)60%Wed 4 Nov
  138. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen37%Mon 19 Apr
  139. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  140. Michigan Senate Election Winner: Abdul El-Sayed (D)72%Wed 4 Nov
  141. Trump out as President before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  142. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  143. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  144. Ohio Senate Election Winner: Sherrod Brown (D)60%Wed 4 Nov
  145. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  146. Wisconsin Governor Election Winner: David Crowley (D)81%Wed 4 Nov
  147. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day90%Fri 8 Jan
  148. Iowa Senate Election Winner: Ashley Hinson (R)59%Wed 4 Nov
  149. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro70%Thu 31 Dec
  150. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  151. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  152. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli97%Sun 6 Dec
  153. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  154. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  155. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  156. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  157. OpenAI IPO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  158. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  159. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes88%Sat 31 Oct
  160. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  161. New Hampshire Senate Election Winner: Chris Pappas (D)86%Wed 4 Nov
  162. Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes77%Thu 10 Dec
  163. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  164. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No80%Tue 5 Jan
  165. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  166. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  167. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase73%Wed 9 Dec
  168. Nevada Governor Election Winner: Aaron Ford (D)53%Wed 4 Nov
  169. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 476%Fri 1 Jan
  170. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  171. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  172. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No97%Wed 18 Nov
  173. Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  174. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  175. Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  176. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No96%Wed 4 Nov
  177. North Carolina Senate Election Winner: Roy Cooper (D)95%Wed 4 Nov
  178. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers29%Sat 31 Oct
  179. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  180. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic53%Thu 31 Dec
  181. Georgia Senate Election Winner: Jon Ossoff (D) 96%Wed 4 Nov
  182. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA84%Fri 1 Jan
  183. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro76%Sun 25 Oct
  184. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  185. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  186. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  187. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Buffalo Bills12%Thu 1 Apr
  188. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  189. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  190. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No96%Mon 30 Nov
  191. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No64%Fri 1 Jan
  192. All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  193. Croatia vs. Spain: Spain78%Tue 6 Oct
  194. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  195. EPL: 2027 Champion: Arsenal60%Sun 30 May
  196. UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion: Barcelona20%Sun 30 May
  197. Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  198. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: Yes66%Fri 1 Jan
  199. Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?: Yes99%Fri 1 Jan
  200. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  201. Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola73%Wed 4 Nov
  202. AL-04 House Election Margin of Victory: Republican 55-60%60%Wed 4 Nov
  203. Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  204. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  205. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 6?: Yes92%Tue 6 Oct
  206. Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  207. Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  208. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202699%Fri 1 Jan
  209. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic46%Thu 31 Dec
  210. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova89%Mon 26 Oct
  211. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No76%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?: No meeting before 202792%Fri 1 Jan
  213. Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  214. Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  215. Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  216. NBA: 2027 Champion: San Antonio Spurs22%Thu 1 Jul
  217. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  218. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  219. Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  220. Will GameStop acquire eBay?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  221. Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  222. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: Aleksandar Vučić73%Sun 25 Oct
  223. Bachelorette Season 22 Winner: Other (Season Cancelled)88%Mon 30 Nov
  224. S&P 500 up 100% in 2026?: No99%Thu 31 Dec
  225. Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  226. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No73%Fri 1 Jan
  227. Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]: No86%Sat 2 Jan
  228. Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  229. Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 163%Thu 31 Dec
  230. Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  231. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  232. LALIGA: 2027 Champion: Barcelona79%Tue 15 Jun
  233. Iowa Governor Election Winner: Rob Sand (D)84%Wed 4 Nov
  234. Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  235. Georgia Governor Election Winner: Rick Jackson (R)52%Wed 4 Nov
  236. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]: No99%Thu 31 Dec
  237. Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?: China76%Fri 1 Jan
  238. Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?: Yes80%Fri 1 Jan
  239. Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  240. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes98%Thu 1 Apr
  241. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  242. Kansas Senate Election Winner: Roger Marshall (R)68%Wed 4 Nov
  243. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  244. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes64%Wed 4 Nov
  245. Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  246. England vs. Czechia: England81%Tue 6 Oct
  247. Arizona Governor Election Winner: Katie Hobbs (D)90%Wed 4 Nov
  248. Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  249. AI bubble burst in 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  250. South Carolina Senate Election Winner: Darline Graham Nordone (R)85%Wed 4 Nov
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.