AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Monday, 12 October 2026
Edition of Tuesday, 12 October 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Mon 12 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Tuesday, 12 October 2027.

Politics

Marine Le Pen won the 2027 French presidency

Laurent Wauquiez was absent from the ballot

35% certain
lead market 35%next 20%1 venuesettles Mon 19 Apr

Marine Le Pen secured the French presidency in the 2027 election. The final result was confirmed on Monday, 19 April. The victory came as a crowded field of familiar rivals failed to make the cut. No other candidate achieved the required majority.

The right-hand side of the contest was notably thinner after Laurent Wauquiez did not appear on the ballot. The absence removed a potential challenger from the race. It left the remaining candidates to vie for the same voter base.

Read the full report

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Maine Senate Election Winner: Troy Jackson (D)59%Wed 4 Nov
  3. Ohio Senate Election Winner: Sherrod Brown (D)60%Wed 4 Nov
  4. Wisconsin Governor Election Winner: David Crowley (D)81%Wed 4 Nov
  5. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party91%Wed 4 Nov
  6. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep62%Wed 4 Nov
  7. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)95%Fri 1 Jan
  8. Michigan Governor Election Winner: Jocelyn Benson (D)90%Wed 4 Nov
  9. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  10. Georgia Senate Election Winner: Jon Ossoff (D) 95%Wed 4 Nov
  11. Nevada Governor Election Winner: Aaron Ford (D)52%Wed 4 Nov
  12. North Carolina Senate Election Winner: Roy Cooper (D)94%Wed 4 Nov
  13. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen35%Mon 19 Apr
  14. Trump out as President before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  15. US recession by end of 2026?: No93%Sun 31 Jan
  16. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes90%Sat 31 Oct
  17. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party64%Wed 4 Nov
  18. Arizona Governor Election Winner: Katie Hobbs (D)88%Wed 4 Nov
  19. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  20. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes91%Sat 31 Oct
  21. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  22. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No93%Wed 4 Nov
  23. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  24. Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes78%Thu 10 Dec
  25. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  26. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  27. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase73%Wed 9 Dec
  28. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  29. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%73%Fri 1 Jan
  30. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  31. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No94%Mon 4 Jan
  32. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  33. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  34. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  35. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  36. LALIGA: 2027 Champion: Barcelona76%Tue 15 Jun
  37. Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  38. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  40. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No73%Fri 1 Jan
  41. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes64%Wed 4 Nov
  42. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No63%Tue 1 Dec
  43. US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?: No55%Fri 1 Jan
  44. Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Chiang Wan-an67%Sun 29 Nov
  45. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes63%Tue 1 Dec
  46. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  47. ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: No change93%Fri 30 Oct
  48. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)70%Thu 31 Dec
  49. Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  50. Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  51. Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?: No76%Fri 1 Jan
  52. Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  53. Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  54. Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?: Yes71%Fri 1 Jan
  55. Next Prime Minister of Romania?: Luca Niculescu97%Thu 31 Dec
  56. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes92%Sun 15 Nov
  57. Iran full airspace closure by December 31?: No72%Fri 1 Jan
  58. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  59. Number of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026: 087%Wed 9 Dec
  60. Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  61. StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  62. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No91%Sun 15 Nov
  63. Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  64. StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  65. China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 4.0–5.0%95%Sun 31 Jan
  66. Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy): No87%Sat 31 Oct
  67. Wil Trump be impeached by the House in 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  68. Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  69. Fed decisions (Sep–Dec): Hike–Pause–Hike65%Wed 9 Dec
  70. Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  71. Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  72. US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?: Yes75%Wed 4 Nov
  73. Ligue 1: 2027 Champion: Paris Saint-Germain87%Tue 15 Jun
  74. Lula to finish his presidential term?: Lula to finish his presidential term?97%Thu 31 Dec
  75. Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  76. US basic interest rate at the end of 2026: 3.5% or more91%Wed 9 Dec
  77. Fed Decision in January?: No change66%Thu 28 Jan
  78. Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?: No68%Fri 1 Jan
  79. StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  80. Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  81. Euro area’s inflation rate in 2026: 3.0% or more60%Wed 6 Jan
  82. Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner: Pete Fry64%Sun 18 Oct
  83. Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  84. When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?: No release by November 197%Sun 18 Oct
  85. Will any German State Prime Minister after a 2026 election be elected with AfD support?: Yes74%Thu 31 Dec
  86. Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  87. Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  88. Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  89. Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  90. Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  91. Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?: Shutdown & Democratic Party90%Mon 1 Feb
  92. Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  93. Nigerian Presidential Election Winner: Bola Tinubu75%Sun 17 Jan
  94. Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?: No77%Sun 1 Nov
  95. Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?: The Odyssey92%Thu 1 Jul
  96. Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  97. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.6%46%Thu 15 Oct
  98. Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026: 0.8-1.1%58%Fri 30 Oct
  99. IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  100. Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 1.3%+43%Fri 30 Oct
  101. Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?: No release by October 3193%Tue 13 Oct
  102. Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Zac de Vries64%Sun 18 Oct
  103. Core CPI MoM - September 2026: 0.2%48%Thu 15 Oct
  104. Surrey Mayoral Election: Brenda Locke81%Sun 18 Oct
  105. US headline inflation rate in September (month-over-month CPI): Above 0.4%56%Wed 14 Oct
  106. Kamloops, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Mike O'Reilly70%Sun 18 Oct
  107. Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner: Julianne Moore82%Thu 1 Jul
  108. UEFA Europa League: 2027 Champion: Juventus12%Sun 30 May
  109. US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  110. UEFA Nations League Winner 2026-27: Spain34%Mon 14 Jun
  111. Will Gemini 4 Argon be released publicly before October 15: No66%Wed 14 Oct
  112. Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?: Yes80%Tue 20 Oct
  113. Richmond Mayoral Election: Rob Howard43%Sun 18 Oct
  114. Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 15?: Yes57%Fri 16 Oct
  115. Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner: John Malkovich51%Thu 1 Jul
  116. White House # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?: 200+85%Fri 16 Oct
  117. Delta, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Dylan Kruger51%Sun 18 Oct
  118. PPI YoY - September 2026: 5.9%+93%Fri 16 Oct
  119. Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No71%Sun 18 Apr
  120. Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes92%Thu 1 Jul
  121. Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No72%Thu 1 Jul
  122. Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.4%54%Thu 15 Oct
  123. Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?: No90%Sat 31 Oct
  124. Revelstoke, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Gary Sulz71%Sun 18 Oct
  125. Kelowna Mayoral Election: Ron Cannan60%Sun 18 Oct
  126. Coquitlam, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Craig Hodge92%Sat 17 Oct
  127. Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No81%Tue 13 Oct
  128. Primeira Liga: 2027 Champion: Porto62%Tue 15 Jun
  129. Fernie, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Harshan Ramadass67%Sun 18 Oct
  130. Will Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No90%Tue 13 Oct
  131. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes94%Thu 1 Jul
  132. Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No95%Mon 19 Apr
  133. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?: No release by October 3119%Tue 13 Oct
  134. Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No97%Sat 17 Apr
  135. Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes89%Thu 1 Jul
  136. Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes74%Thu 1 Jul
  137. Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?: No97%Sun 18 Apr
  138. Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes89%Thu 1 Jul
  139. Gemini Argon released on...?: October 1334%Wed 14 Oct
  140. Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes78%Thu 1 Jul
  141. Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: Yes89%Mon 19 Apr
  142. Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No79%Thu 1 Jul
  143. Will Partha Dasgupta win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No95%Tue 13 Oct
  144. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No60%Mon 19 Apr
  145. Will Richard Blundell win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No90%Tue 13 Oct
  146. Will Betis finish in the top 2 of the 2026-27 LaLiga season?: No99%Mon 14 Jun
  147. New Westminster, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Patrick Johnstone69%Sun 18 Oct
  148. Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No98%Tue 13 Oct
  149. Whistler, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Jack Crompton90%Sun 18 Oct
  150. Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026?: No65%Thu 15 Oct
  151. What will be the top US Netflix movie this week? (October 13): Animals99%Tue 13 Oct
  152. What will be the top global Netflix movie this week? (October 13): Animals99%Tue 13 Oct
  153. West Vancouver, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Mark Sager57%Sun 18 Oct
  154. Prince George, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Simon Yu56%Sun 18 Oct
  155. US Core CPI inflation (month-over-month): September: Above 0.1%64%Wed 14 Oct
  156. Nanaimo Mayoral Election: Leonard Krog94%Sun 18 Oct
  157. Will Lawrence Katz win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No94%Tue 13 Oct
  158. Grammys 2027: Song of the Year Winner: the cure - Olivia Rodrigo65%Thu 1 Jul
  159. Yokohama Mayoral Election Winner: Atsumi Harasawa82%Sun 18 Oct
  160. Ligue 1: Top Goalscorer 2026-27: Estéban Lepaul27%Mon 31 May
  161. What will be the top US Netflix show this week? (October 13): Below: Limited Series98%Tue 13 Oct
  162. How many views will the #1 Show on Netflix have this week?: 15-18M94%Wed 14 Oct
  163. Oscars 2027: Best Visual Effects Winner: Dune: Part Three54%Thu 1 Jul
  164. Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?: No release by October 3146%Wed 14 Oct
  165. Burnaby Mayoral Election: Mike Hurley98%Sun 18 Oct
  166. Will Andreu Mas-Colell win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No99%Tue 13 Oct
  167. What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (October 13): Doing Life98%Tue 13 Oct
  168. Will Matthew Rabin win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No97%Tue 13 Oct
  169. Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 14?: No97%Thu 15 Oct
  170. Will a woman win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics, Chemistry, Medicine, or Economics?: No79%Mon 12 Oct
  171. Grammys 2027: Best New Artist Winner: Ella Langley59%Thu 1 Jul
  172. Democratic Senate odds on October 16?: 64-66%55%Fri 16 Oct
  173. What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (October 13): Doing Life98%Tue 13 Oct
  174. What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (October 13): East of Eden: Limited Series97%Tue 13 Oct
  175. Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No90%Tue 13 Oct
  176. Will David Autor win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No82%Tue 13 Oct
  177. What will be the top global Netflix show this week? (October 13): Below: Limited Series98%Tue 13 Oct
  178. Within 1 year, will I think Claude Skills are a bigger deal than MCP?: Yes61%Sun 18 Oct
  179. Langley Township, BC Mayoral Election Winner: did not happen55%Sun 18 Oct
  180. Does Claude Opus 5.5 make egregious errors?: No84%Thu 15 Oct
  181. Will Demian Reidel win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No99%Tue 13 Oct
  182. Will Ernst Fehr win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No95%Tue 13 Oct
  183. Vernon, BC Mayoral Election Winner: did not happen64%Sun 18 Oct
  184. Will Hal Varian win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No93%Tue 13 Oct
  185. How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?: <2022%Mon 19 Oct
  186. Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)62%Wed 4 Nov
  187. Michigan Senate Election Winner: Abdul El-Sayed (D)69%Wed 4 Nov
  188. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: Aleksandar Vučić63%Sun 25 Oct
  189. Iowa Senate Election Winner: Ashley Hinson (R)59%Wed 4 Nov
  190. Fed Decision in October?: No change82%Thu 29 Oct
  191. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot45%Wed 28 Oct
  192. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  193. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  194. New Hampshire Senate Election Winner: Chris Pappas (D)87%Wed 4 Nov
  195. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  196. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  197. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro79%Sun 25 Oct
  198. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  199. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei89%Thu 31 Dec
  200. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  201. Iowa Governor Election Winner: Rob Sand (D)84%Wed 4 Nov
  202. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  203. Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  204. Georgia Governor Election Winner: Rick Jackson (R)54%Wed 4 Nov
  205. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane63%Sat 31 Oct
  206. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  207. NY-21 House Election Winner: Anthony Constantino (R)88%Wed 4 Nov
  208. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro70%Thu 31 Dec
  209. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No74%Wed 4 Nov
  210. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  211. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  212. OpenAI IPO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  213. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli97%Sun 6 Dec
  214. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  215. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA83%Fri 1 Jan
  216. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  217. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  218. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  219. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  220. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  221. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  222. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  223. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  224. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  225. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  226. US GDP growth in Q3 2026?: ≥3.0%67%Fri 30 Oct
  227. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No81%Tue 5 Jan
  228. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  229. VA-03 House Election Margin of Victory: Democrat 50-55%50%Wed 4 Nov
  230. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  231. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  232. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No98%Wed 18 Nov
  233. Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?: No89%Thu 31 Dec
  234. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  235. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202696%Fri 1 Jan
  236. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  237. Which price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: 65,00043%Thu 31 Dec
  238. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Google70%Sat 31 Oct
  239. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic55%Thu 31 Dec
  240. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  241. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Vancouver Whitecaps FC22%Fri 1 Jan
  242. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day95%Fri 8 Jan
  243. Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?: No100%Sun 1 Nov
  244. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No96%Mon 30 Nov
  245. All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  246. CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?: No94%Thu 31 Dec
  247. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  248. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No68%Fri 1 Jan
  249. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  250. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.