79%Chang San-cheng won Taoyuan mayoral race40%Fed ended 2026 with rates at 4.0% after single Hike67%Anthropic topped AI model rankings and reached $1.75 trillion valuation78%Mojtaba Khamenei stayed Iran's supreme leader in 202655%Spider-Man: Brand New Day topped 2026 box office94%United States remained in NATO throughout 202665%Xavier Becerra elected governor of California51%Democrats captured the house and senate in 2026 Midterms60%Lula re-elected president of Brazil82%Israel kept Iran ceasefire, held Lebanon talks, did not withdraw80%Bitcoin peaked at $80,000 in September but missed $90,000 milestone30%United Russia kept Duma majority with 325-339 seats

AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Thursday, 3 September 2026
Edition of Friday, 3 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Thu 3 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Friday, 3 September 2027.

Politics

Chang San-cheng won Taoyuan mayoral race

Ann Kao won Hsinchu City mayoralty and Lee Shu-chuan won New Taipei.

79% certain
lead market 79%next 19%1 venuesettles Wed 30 Jun

On Wednesday, 30 June 2026, Taiwan's local elections produced New mayors in four major jurisdictions. Chang San-cheng was elected Mayor of Taoyuan, defeating his rivals. Ann Kao secured the mayoralty of Hsinchu City. Lee Shu-chuan won in New Taipei and Wang Mei-hui prevailed in Chiayi City.

In Taoyuan, Chang San-cheng triumphed over Huang Shih-chieh and Perng Shaw-jiin.

Read the full report

World

Lula re-elected president of Brazil

Latvia's as party won the Parliamentary election and Israel's government remained intact.

60% certain
lead market 60%next 32%1 venuesettles Fri 2 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Tue 3 Nov
  2. Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?: No99%Fri 6 Nov
  3. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No89%Wed 4 Nov
  4. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)69%Wed 30 Sept
  5. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)86%Thu 31 Dec
  6. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei78%Thu 31 Dec
  7. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party89%Tue 3 Nov
  8. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes89%Sun 15 Nov
  9. Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?: Yes95%Sun 1 Nov
  10. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  11. Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson73%Sun 13 Sept
  12. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep52%Tue 3 Nov
  13. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)96%Wed 30 Sept
  14. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day90%Thu 31 Dec
  15. Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes64%Wed 9 Dec
  16. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  17. Berlin State Election Winner: Linke46%Sun 20 Sept
  18. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No73%Tue 3 Nov
  19. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  20. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0%40%Wed 9 Dec
  21. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party51%Tue 3 Nov
  22. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  23. 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Carlos Alcaraz37%Sun 13 Sept
  24. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  25. Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  26. Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)97%Sun 13 Sept
  27. Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026: Yes86%Sun 6 Sept
  28. CA-38 House Election Winner: Democratic Party88%Tue 3 Nov
  29. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  30. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  31. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  32. SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes93%Sun 6 Sept
  33. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass65%Thu 31 Dec
  34. Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026: No85%Sun 6 Sept
  35. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  36. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula60%Fri 2 Oct
  37. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes85%Wed 30 Sept
  39. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  40. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  41. Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?: Yes98%Fri 16 Oct
  42. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  43. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  44. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  45. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  46. Fed Decision in October?: No change69%Wed 28 Oct
  47. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner: AfD78%Sun 20 Sept
  48. US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  49. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner: did not happen100%Sun 6 Sept
  50. Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?: No60%Wed 9 Dec
  51. Liberals still in Riksdag after next election?: No82%Sat 12 Sept
  52. Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?: No63%Mon 21 Sept
  53. Top Spotify Artist 2026: Bad Bunny83%Thu 31 Dec
  54. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  55. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  56. Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  57. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)87%Sun 20 Sept
  58. Fed decisions (Jul–Oct): Other60%Wed 28 Oct
  59. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?: No97%Thu 31 Dec
  60. Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?: Yes88%Sat 12 Sept
  61. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic67%Fri 1 Jan
  62. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  63. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?: No99%Sun 20 Sept
  64. Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?: No99%Thu 8 Oct
  65. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  66. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No81%Sun 1 Nov
  67. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  68. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes90%Fri 1 Jan
  69. Israel closes its airspace by September 30?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  70. Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?: Yes53%Wed 9 Dec
  71. Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?: Yes63%Sun 20 Sept
  72. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  73. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33937%Sun 20 Sept
  74. Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  75. Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?: No86%Thu 1 Oct
  76. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday55%Fri 1 Jan
  77. Fed Decision in December?: No change44%Wed 9 Dec
  78. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?: No91%Thu 31 Dec
  79. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  80. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No89%Fri 8 Jan
  81. Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September?: No85%Thu 1 Oct
  82. Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: No61%Thu 24 Sept
  83. Counter-Strike: K27 vs Nemiga (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs: K27100%Thu 3 Sept
  84. Bank of Russia decision in September?: No Change61%Fri 11 Sept
  85. Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?: Yes80%Thu 1 Oct
  86. Counter-Strike: magic vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs: magic95%Thu 3 Sept
  87. Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner: AS84%Sat 3 Oct
  88. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  89. Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?: 20%+50%Sun 13 Sept
  90. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  91. Counter-Strike: MIBR vs EYEBALLERS - Map 1 Winner: MIBR82%Thu 3 Sept
  92. Counter-Strike: MIBR vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs: MIBR77%Thu 3 Sept
  93. Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs HOTU (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs: HOTU100%Thu 3 Sept
  94. Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: Yes82%Thu 1 Oct
  95. Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner: Fatima Shaban91%Thu 3 Sept
  96. Will the Israeli government significantly undermine the next election?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  97. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?: 5-7%46%Sun 6 Sept
  98. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?: 5-7%58%Sun 6 Sept
  99. Will the AfD win more than 40% of the vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes80%Mon 7 Sept
  100. Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?: Sven Schulze72%Sun 6 Sept
  101. US Open ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Francisco Cerundolo: Francisco Cerundolo61%Wed 9 Sept
  102. OpenAI's Astra released on...?: September 381%Thu 3 Sept
  103. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Provincial By-Election Winner: Jeff Beattie57%Thu 3 Sept
  104. Osnabrück Mayoral Election Winner: Katharina Pötter81%Sun 13 Sept
  105. Best AI model on September 7?: Other97%Mon 7 Sept
  106. Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Playoffs: Team Falcons60%Fri 4 Sept
  107. Will Dan McKee be renominated for Governor of Rhode Island in 2026?: No95%Tue 8 Sept
  108. Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)48%Sun 20 Sept
  109. Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner: Elaine Pelino95%Tue 8 Sept
  110. Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: No78%Thu 24 Sept
  111. US Open ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Mattia Bellucci: Taylor Fritz90%Wed 9 Sept
  112. Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Helena Foulkes99%Tue 8 Sept
  113. Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  114. Will United Russia get more seats in the next Russian Duma election than the one in 2021?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  115. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Sweden Democrats (SD)77%Sun 13 Sept
  116. Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Rare Atom (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Asian Qualifier Playoffs: TYLOO51%Thu 3 Sept
  117. US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska: Iga Swiatek98%Wed 9 Sept
  118. Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October: No81%Wed 30 Sept
  119. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Moderate Party (M)72%Sun 13 Sept
  120. US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Dalibor Svrcina: Luciano Darderi57%Wed 9 Sept
  121. US Open WTA: Qinwen Zheng vs Yulia Putintseva: Qinwen Zheng71%Wed 9 Sept
  122. Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout: 53-56%30%Sun 20 Sept
  123. Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic Primary Winner: Kim Ahern86%Wed 9 Sept
  124. Bryansk Oblast Gubernatorial Election Winner: Yegor Kovalchuk93%Sun 20 Sept
  125. Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs ASTRAL (BO3) - Logitech G Play Connect Closed Qualifier Playoffs: Sashi Esport100%Thu 3 Sept
  126. US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo: Alejandro Tabilo61%Wed 9 Sept
  127. Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?: David Morales83%Wed 9 Sept
  128. Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs: Nuclear TigeRES53%Thu 3 Sept
  129. Bitcoin price reaches 80k USD by the end of September: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  130. Counter-Strike: B8 vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs: B856%Thu 3 Sept
  131. Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Sinners (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4: Closed Qualifier Playoffs: FOKUS60%Thu 3 Sept
  132. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Vote Share?: 9-12%46%Sun 6 Sept
  133. Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?: No95%Sun 27 Sept
  134. Hannover Mayoral Election Winner: Belit Onay77%Sun 13 Sept
  135. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share?: 8-11%61%Sun 20 Sept
  136. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Linke73%Sun 20 Sept
  137. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share?: 20-23%41%Sun 6 Sept
  138. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%?: Over55%Sun 6 Sept
  139. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?: 39-42%43%Sun 6 Sept
  140. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%?: Over71%Sun 6 Sept
  141. Will Alexander Zverev OR Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: Yes59%Thu 24 Sept
  142. Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  143. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Over/Under 12%?: Under54%Sun 6 Sept
  144. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to Grüne or BSW?: Grüne93%Sun 6 Sept
  145. Hsinchu City Mayor Election Winner: Ann Kao93%Wed 30 Jun
  146. Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary Winner: Raymond McKay96%Tue 8 Sept
  147. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?: did not happen75%Sun 6 Sept
  148. York—Simcoe Provincial By-Election Winner: Susan Lahey99%Thu 3 Sept
  149. Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election?: did not happen85%Sun 6 Sept
  150. Taoyuan Mayor Election Winner: Chang San-cheng96%Wed 30 Jun
  151. New Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Lee Shu-chuan79%Wed 30 Jun
  152. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?: Under59%Sun 6 Sept
  153. Chiayi City Mayor Election Winner: Wang Mei-hui79%Wed 30 Jun
  154. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or BSW?: SPD93%Sun 6 Sept
  155. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?: Grüne54%Sun 6 Sept
  156. Fed Decision in September?: No change60%Wed 16 Sept
  157. Brazil Presidential Election: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva51%Sun 4 Oct
  158. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No93%Wed 4 Nov
  159. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  160. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  161. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane56%Sat 31 Oct
  162. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: No51%Wed 4 Nov
  163. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No96%Wed 18 Nov
  164. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: Yes55%Sat 3 Oct
  165. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen32%Fri 30 Apr
  166. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: No52%Tue 1 Dec
  167. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes62%Tue 3 Nov
  168. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No64%Tue 3 Nov
  169. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  170. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot47%Thu 31 Dec
  171. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: Yes50%Tue 1 Dec
  172. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Yulia Navalnaya22%Sat 10 Oct
  173. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro82%Sun 4 Oct
  174. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No89%Sun 15 Nov
  175. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  176. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  177. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro80%Thu 31 Dec
  178. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  179. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli70%Sun 6 Dec
  180. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  181. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3088%Thu 1 Oct
  182. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  183. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: Yes51%Wed 4 Nov
  184. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  185. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  186. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  187. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes73%Wed 4 Nov
  188. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  189. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes67%Tue 3 Nov
  190. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No80%Tue 3 Nov
  191. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  192. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes94%Wed 30 Sept
  193. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  194. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No98%Thu 15 Oct
  195. Virginia redistricting: Will the Charlottesville district be blue?: No96%Wed 4 Nov
  196. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  197. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  198. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  199. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes88%Sun 6 Dec
  200. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No97%Fri 2 Oct
  201. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  202. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 3?: Yes91%Thu 3 Sept
  203. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  204. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: No51%Tue 3 Nov
  205. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  206. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No85%Tue 3 Nov
  207. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers29%Sat 31 Oct
  208. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  209. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No69%Mon 30 Nov
  210. Will Bitcoin be higher a month from now?: Yes99%Sat 5 Sept
  211. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  213. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avatar: The Way of Water"? (>2.3B worldwide): Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  214. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Thu 31 Dec
  215. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  216. Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th?: Yes92%Mon 14 Sept
  217. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  218. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  219. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No96%Sun 27 Sept
  220. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  221. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  222. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  223. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  224. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  225. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  226. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes88%Thu 1 Oct
  227. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  228. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No73%Thu 31 Dec
  229. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic59%Thu 31 Dec
  230. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  231. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  232. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  233. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes83%Wed 14 Oct
  234. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: No53%Mon 23 Nov
  235. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Los Angeles Rams16%Wed 31 Mar
  236. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  237. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  238. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  239. Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?: No88%Wed 30 Sept
  240. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  241. Will Astra solve Elliot Glazer's prototype FrontierMath problem?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  242. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes65%Mon 30 Nov
  243. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes74%Wed 16 Sept
  244. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  245. In a true free market. Prices would naturally fall . In other words deflation: Yes55%Sat 5 Sept
  246. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA76%Thu 31 Dec
  247. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes86%Wed 14 Oct
  248. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No65%Tue 13 Oct
  249. Will Seth Bodnar win Montanas Senate Election?: No91%Tue 3 Nov
  250. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No71%Tue 6 Oct
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.