AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 9 September 2026
Edition of Thursday, 9 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 9 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Thursday, 9 September 2027.

Culture

Julianne Moore won best actress at 2027 Oscars

Christopher Nolan captured best Director, while Dune: Part Three secured best Visual Effects

25% certain
lead market 25%next 25%1 venuesettles Sun 14 Mar

The 2027 Academy Awards celebrated a range of cinematic achievements. Julianne Moore received the best actress trophy, while Christopher Nolan was honored as best Director The Odyssey earned the award for best Original score.

In The supporting categories, Paul Giamatti took home the best supporting actor honor and Anne Hathaway won best supporting actress. The Visual Effects honor went to Dune: Part Three, recognizing its technical mastery. These wins highlighted both acting and technical excellence.

Read the full report

Economics

NVIDIA became world's Largest company

Japan's central Bank lifted rates by 25 basis points and Zimbabwe's lithium ban cut supply by over 5,000 tonnes.

92% certain
lead market 92%next 8%1 venuesettles Tue 29 Sept

Politics

Belit Onay elected mayor of Hannover

Frank Klingebiel won the Salzgitter Mayoral race and Eva Bender secured the Hannover regional presidency.

54% certain
lead market 54%next 46%1 venuesettles Sun 13 Sept

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra93%Tue 3 Nov
  2. Fed Decision in September?: 25 bps increase53%Wed 16 Sept
  3. Brazil Presidential Election: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva50%Sun 4 Oct
  4. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No89%Wed 4 Nov
  5. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No93%Wed 4 Nov
  6. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  7. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  8. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)90%Thu 31 Dec
  9. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: Yes56%Sat 3 Oct
  10. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei81%Thu 31 Dec
  11. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes62%Tue 3 Nov
  12. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  13. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot56%Thu 31 Dec
  14. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  15. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  16. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)97%Wed 30 Sept
  17. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes73%Wed 4 Nov
  18. Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes71%Wed 9 Dec
  19. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3092%Thu 1 Oct
  20. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  21. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  22. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro82%Sun 4 Oct
  23. Berlin State Election Winner: Linke49%Sun 20 Sept
  24. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day92%Thu 31 Dec
  25. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0%39%Wed 9 Dec
  26. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  27. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  28. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  29. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic85%Thu 1 Oct
  30. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No93%Thu 31 Dec
  31. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  32. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  33. Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  34. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes54%Mon 23 Nov
  35. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes83%Wed 14 Oct
  36. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula56%Fri 2 Oct
  37. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Los Angeles Rams16%Wed 31 Mar
  40. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  41. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  42. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes86%Wed 14 Oct
  43. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass65%Thu 31 Dec
  44. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 499%Fri 1 Jan
  45. UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion: Barcelona17%Sun 30 May
  46. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  47. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 5 kt on September 29, 2026?: Yes92%Tue 29 Sept
  48. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  49. EPL: 2027 Champion: Arsenal49%Sun 30 May
  50. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 9?: No90%Wed 9 Sept
  51. Fed Decision in October?: No change66%Wed 28 Oct
  52. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  53. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  54. NBA: 2027 Champion: Oklahoma City Thunder24%Thu 1 Jul
  55. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  56. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  57. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  58. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No76%Fri 1 Jan
  59. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  60. Largest Company end of September?: NVIDIA94%Wed 30 Sept
  61. Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?: Yes55%Wed 9 Dec
  62. Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Other54%Wed 16 Sept
  63. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  64. ECB Interest Rates: September 2026: 25 bps increase99%Thu 10 Sept
  65. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  66. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)82%Sun 4 Oct
  67. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner: AfD79%Sun 20 Sept
  68. Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  69. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic59%Fri 1 Jan
  70. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)88%Sun 20 Sept
  71. Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026?: No96%Sat 31 Oct
  72. Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  73. Will Netanyahu win the next elections in Israel?: No82%Tue 10 Nov
  74. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?: No96%Wed 16 Sept
  75. US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?: No95%Thu 31 Dec
  76. Fed decisions (Jul–Oct): Other66%Wed 28 Oct
  77. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes77%Sat 31 Oct
  78. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33937%Sun 20 Sept
  79. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  80. Bank of Japan Decision in September?: 25 bps increase97%Fri 18 Sept
  81. Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?: Yes65%Wed 9 Dec
  82. Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  83. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?: No97%Thu 31 Dec
  84. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes90%Fri 1 Jan
  85. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  86. Fed Decision in December?: No change48%Wed 9 Dec
  87. Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?: Yes59%Fri 1 Jan
  88. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won: PL90%Sun 4 Oct
  89. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes97%Sun 4 Oct
  90. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day53%Fri 1 Jan
  91. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?: Yes87%Fri 1 Jan
  92. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No92%Sun 4 Oct
  93. StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  94. Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  95. Best Chinese AI Company end of September?: Alibaba68%Thu 1 Oct
  96. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No94%Fri 8 Jan
  97. Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  98. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes91%Mon 5 Oct
  99. Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?: No57%Sat 12 Sept
  100. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Ciro Gomes63%Sun 4 Oct
  101. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%39%Sun 4 Oct
  102. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro86%Mon 5 Oct
  103. Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?: Anthropic93%Thu 1 Oct
  104. Will Dan McKee be renominated for Governor of Rhode Island in 2026?: No97%Wed 9 Sept
  105. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes97%Sun 4 Oct
  106. Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 11, 2026?: No81%Sat 12 Sept
  107. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: OpenAI83%Thu 1 Oct
  108. Will Katharina Reiche stop being the german Minister of Energy by the next regular election?: No55%Sun 27 Sept
  109. Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic Primary Winner: Kim Ahern76%Wed 9 Sept
  110. Providence, RI Democratic Mayoral Nominee: David Morales80%Wed 9 Sept
  111. Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner: PL54%Sun 4 Oct
  112. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco53%Sun 4 Oct
  113. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 9?: No85%Wed 9 Sept
  114. Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On): Anthropic86%Thu 1 Oct
  115. Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?: Yes92%Thu 1 Oct
  116. Serie A: 2027 Champion: Inter Milan46%Sun 30 May
  117. Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?: OpenAI88%Thu 1 Oct
  118. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?: Anthropic86%Thu 1 Oct
  119. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of September?: Anthropic85%Thu 1 Oct
  120. Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner: The Odyssey44%Sun 14 Mar
  121. Hannover Mayoral Election Winner: Belit Onay82%Sun 13 Sept
  122. NHL: 2027 Champion: Carolina Hurricanes20%Thu 1 Jul
  123. Argentina monthly inflation — August 2026: Between 1.5% and 1.7%78%Thu 10 Sept
  124. Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner: Julianne Moore61%Sun 14 Mar
  125. Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September?: OpenAI40%Thu 1 Oct
  126. Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027?: No93%Thu 1 Jul
  127. Fed interest rate decision — September 2026: 25 bps increase52%Wed 16 Sept
  128. Argentina Monthly Inflation - August: 1.5-1.7%79%Thu 10 Sept
  129. Hannover Region Presidential Election Winner: Eva Bender71%Sun 13 Sept
  130. Braunschweig Mayoral Election Winner: Thorsten Kornblum94%Sun 13 Sept
  131. Salzgitter Mayoral Election Winner: Frank Klingebiel96%Sun 13 Sept
  132. Oldenburg Mayoral Election Winner: Jascha Rohr62%Sun 13 Sept
  133. Brazil Selic rate decision — September 2026 COPOM meeting: 25 bps decrease96%Tue 15 Sept
  134. Göttingen Mayoral Election Winner: Onyeka Oshionwu54%Sun 13 Sept
  135. White House # posts September 4 - September 11, 2026?: 200+57%Fri 11 Sept
  136. Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner: Wild Horse Nine31%Sun 14 Mar
  137. Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Xaykham Khamsyvoravong55%Wed 9 Sept
  138. Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Winner: The Odyssey47%Sun 14 Mar
  139. Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Winner: The Odyssey47%Sun 14 Mar
  140. Oscars 2027: Best Visual Effects Winner: Dune: Part Three50%Sun 14 Mar
  141. Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner: The Black Ball25%Sun 14 Mar
  142. Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Winner: Paul Giamatti36%Sun 14 Mar
  143. Trump approval rating on September 11?: 38.0–38.462%Fri 11 Sept
  144. Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Winner: Anne Hathaway34%Sun 14 Mar
  145. Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner: Christopher Nolan41%Sun 14 Mar
  146. Oscars 2027: Best Casting Winner: The Odyssey39%Sun 14 Mar
  147. Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?: No99%Fri 6 Nov
  148. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No95%Sat 31 Oct
  149. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)72%Wed 30 Sept
  150. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane57%Sat 31 Oct
  151. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes51%Wed 4 Nov
  152. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No96%Wed 18 Nov
  153. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: No51%Tue 1 Dec
  154. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen32%Fri 30 Apr
  155. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No64%Tue 3 Nov
  156. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No51%Tue 1 Dec
  157. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party87%Tue 3 Nov
  158. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes88%Sun 15 Nov
  159. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Yulia Navalnaya19%Sat 10 Oct
  160. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No89%Sun 15 Nov
  161. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep51%Tue 3 Nov
  162. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  163. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  164. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli82%Sun 6 Dec
  165. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  166. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro82%Thu 31 Dec
  167. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  168. AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?: Yes97%Wed 30 Sept
  169. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No52%Wed 4 Nov
  170. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  171. Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson77%Sun 13 Sept
  172. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  173. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  174. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  175. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes68%Tue 3 Nov
  176. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No80%Tue 3 Nov
  177. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  178. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  179. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  180. Israel closes its airspace by September 30?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  181. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  182. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  183. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes92%Sun 6 Dec
  184. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  185. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  186. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No69%Tue 3 Nov
  187. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  188. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party52%Tue 3 Nov
  189. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  190. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  191. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: No51%Tue 3 Nov
  192. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  193. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No86%Tue 3 Nov
  194. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  195. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  196. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No66%Mon 30 Nov
  197. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  198. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers34%Sat 31 Oct
  199. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No96%Sun 27 Sept
  200. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  201. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  202. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  203. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  204. Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)99%Sun 13 Sept
  205. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No82%Thu 31 Dec
  206. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  207. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes90%Thu 1 Oct
  208. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  209. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  210. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes86%Wed 30 Sept
  211. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?: No89%Wed 30 Sept
  213. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Inter Miami CF20%Sat 19 Dec
  214. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  215. Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  216. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  217. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  218. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic59%Thu 31 Dec
  219. NY-21 House Election Winner: Republican Party84%Tue 3 Nov
  220. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  221. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  222. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  223. 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Carlos Alcaraz37%Sun 13 Sept
  224. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  225. US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Carlos Alcaraz59%Tue 15 Sept
  226. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  227. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No91%Sun 1 Nov
  228. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  229. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes85%Wed 28 Oct
  230. Sporting CP vs. Galatasaray SK: Sporting CP63%Wed 9 Sept
  231. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes66%Wed 16 Sept
  232. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes65%Mon 30 Nov
  233. Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. ŠK Slovan Bratislava: Paris Saint-Germain FC76%Wed 9 Sept
  234. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  235. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA78%Thu 31 Dec
  236. Will YES have more holders than NO?: Yes78%Mon 14 Sept
  237. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No65%Tue 13 Oct
  238. Will Seth Bodnar win Montanas Senate Election?: No91%Tue 3 Nov
  239. 🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨: No71%Mon 2 Nov
  240. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest domestic lifetime gross of all time?: Yes99%Sun 4 Oct
  241. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  242. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  243. Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?: No68%Fri 6 Nov
  244. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No58%Tue 6 Oct
  245. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  246. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No76%Fri 1 Jan
  247. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  248. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: No55%Wed 4 Nov
  249. Elon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?: No97%Thu 5 Nov
  250. Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?: No95%Mon 30 Nov
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.