15%Barcelona won the 2026-27 LALIGA title60%Israel scheduled December 31 withdrawal from Lebanon38%Petr Hlaváček elected Mayor of Prague75%Chiang Wan-an won Taipei mayoral race69%Anthropic's model named best of 202679%Mojtaba Khamenei stayed Iran's leader through 202653%Trump met Putin in China as US stayed in NATO94%Putin, Trump and Zelenskyy stayed in office through 202675%Israel struck four countries in 202665%Xavier Becerra won California governorship52%Gadi Eizenkot became Israel's Prime Minister52%Democrats took control of house and senate

AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Edition of Thursday, 16 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 16 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Thursday, 16 September 2027.

Sports

Barcelona won the 2026-27 LALIGA title

Paris Saint-Germain captured the Ligue 1 championship.

15% certain
lead market 15%next 14%1 venuesettles Sun 30 May

The 2026-27 season concluded with a sweep of titles across Europe's top leagues and the UEFA Europa League. Barcelona secured the LALIGA crown while Paris Saint-Germain lifted the Ligue 1 trophy. In Portugal, Porto claimed the Primeira Liga, and PSV Eindhoven emerged as Eredivisie champions. Milan captured the Europa League title.

Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid trailed, leaving Betis outside the top two positions. The Catalan side clinched the title with a decisive margin in the final weeks.

Read the full report

World

Israel struck four countries in 2026

The Israel-Iran ceasefire held through October, and Iran did not levy Hormuz transit fees.

75% certain
lead market 75%next 26%1 venuesettles Sat 31 Oct

World

Gadi Eizenkot became Israel's Prime Minister

Alexandru Nazare assumed Romania's premiership and Christopher Luxon remained New Zealand's Prime Minister

52% certain
lead market 52%next 29%1 venuesettles Thu 31 Dec

World

Israel struck Lebanon on September 26

Israel also closed its airspace by September 30 while maintaining its ceasefire with Iran.

80% certain
lead market 80%next 24%1 venuesettles Sat 26 Sept

World

Iran struck a U.S. base in September

It also rejected ending uranium enrichment and introduced navigation fees in the Strait of Hormuz.

83% certain
lead market 83%next 17%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Tue 3 Nov
  2. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No95%Wed 4 Nov
  3. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  4. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei79%Thu 31 Dec
  5. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  6. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party87%Tue 3 Nov
  7. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes54%Tue 1 Dec
  8. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro70%Sun 4 Oct
  9. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep56%Tue 3 Nov
  10. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No52%Tue 1 Dec
  11. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot52%Thu 31 Dec
  12. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  13. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes89%Sun 15 Nov
  14. Trump out as President before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  15. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3090%Thu 1 Oct
  16. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No89%Sun 15 Nov
  17. Israel closes its airspace by September 30?: Yes98%Thu 1 Oct
  18. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  19. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party58%Tue 3 Nov
  20. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No69%Tue 3 Nov
  21. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 479%Fri 1 Jan
  22. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  23. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  24. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  25. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Thu 31 Dec
  26. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  27. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  28. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  29. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  30. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No88%Thu 1 Oct
  31. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass65%Thu 31 Dec
  32. Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  33. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula50%Fri 2 Oct
  34. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  35. Next Prime Minister of Romania?: Alexandru Nazare65%Thu 31 Dec
  36. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  37. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Augusto Cury43%Sun 4 Oct
  38. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: No55%Wed 4 Nov
  40. Will California elect a Republican governor in 2026?: No96%Tue 3 Nov
  41. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  42. LALIGA: 2027 Champion: Barcelona63%Sun 30 May
  43. Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?: No87%Thu 1 Oct
  44. Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September?: No82%Thu 1 Oct
  45. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)91%Sun 20 Sept
  46. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  47. Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?: Yes85%Sat 7 Nov
  48. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33943%Sun 20 Sept
  49. Will Xavier Becerra OR Tom Steyer win the 2026 California Governor election?: Yes97%Fri 6 Nov
  50. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  51. Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?: Yes87%Thu 1 Oct
  52. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic69%Fri 1 Jan
  53. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes75%Sat 31 Oct
  54. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  55. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes77%Mon 5 Oct
  56. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No85%Sun 1 Nov
  57. Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?: China53%Fri 1 Jan
  58. US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?: No95%Thu 31 Dec
  59. Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  60. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo81%Sun 4 Oct
  61. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%46%Sun 4 Oct
  62. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  63. São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Tarcísio de Freitas98%Sun 4 Oct
  64. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes88%Fri 1 Jan
  65. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes96%Sun 4 Oct
  66. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won: PL81%Sun 4 Oct
  67. Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  68. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No94%Sun 4 Oct
  69. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  70. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  71. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Ciro Gomes57%Sun 4 Oct
  72. Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  73. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Anthropic86%Sun 1 Nov
  74. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro82%Mon 5 Oct
  75. Will bitcoin go below 9.000$ at the end of this month?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  76. Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?: No75%Thu 1 Jul
  77. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?: Yes60%Wed 31 Mar
  78. Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  79. Bahia Governor Election Winner: Jerônimo Rodrigues60%Sun 4 Oct
  80. Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner : Jorginho Mello95%Sun 4 Oct
  81. Will The Odyssey gross more than Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the domestic box office this weekend (Sept 18–20)?: Yes65%Sun 20 Sept
  82. Israel military action against Lebanon on September 26?: Yes80%Sat 26 Sept
  83. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes96%Sun 4 Oct
  84. Ligue 1: 2027 Champion: Paris Saint-Germain76%Sun 30 May
  85. Will Israel attack Iraq in September 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  86. Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner: PL57%Sun 4 Oct
  87. Bitcoin price reaches 75k USD at any point before the end of the month: Yes91%Wed 30 Sept
  88. Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?: Yes83%Thu 1 Oct
  89. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  90. Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)52%Sun 20 Sept
  91. Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?: Elif Eralp65%Sun 20 Sept
  92. Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout: 53-56%24%Sun 20 Sept
  93. Will United Russia get more seats in the next Russian Duma election than the one in 2021?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  94. Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Chiang Wan-an88%Wed 30 Jun
  95. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Elections: SPD # of seats?: 26-2954%Sun 20 Sept
  96. Berlin State Elections: CDU # of seats?: 35-3933%Sun 20 Sept
  97. "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office: <50m24%Sun 20 Sept
  98. Berlin State Elections: Linke # of seats?: 40+38%Sun 20 Sept
  99. UEFA Europa League: 2027 Champion: Milan15%Sun 30 May
  100. Berlin State Elections: AfD # of seats?: did not happen68%Sun 20 Sept
  101. Primeira Liga: 2027 Champion: Porto37%Sun 30 May
  102. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Elections: AfD # of seats?: 32-3552%Sun 20 Sept
  103. Hsinchu City Mayor Election Winner: Ann Kao86%Wed 30 Jun
  104. Miaoli County Magistrate Election Winner: Chung Tung-chin90%Wed 30 Jun
  105. How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?: <3585%Sun 20 Sept
  106. New Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Lee Shu-chuan75%Wed 30 Jun
  107. Will Betis finish in the top 2 of the 2026-27 LaLiga season?: No97%Sun 30 May
  108. Will "Resident Evil" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: Yes76%Mon 21 Sept
  109. Next Mayor of Brno: Kamila Zlatušková40%Wed 30 Jun
  110. Ligue 1: Top Goalscorer 2026-27: Estéban Lepaul23%Mon 31 May
  111. Liga MX: 2026-27 Top Goalscorer: Armando González71%Sun 13 Jun
  112. Next Mayor of Ústí nad Labem: Tomáš Vohryzka50%Wed 30 Jun
  113. Next Mayor of Prague: Petr Hlaváček38%Wed 30 Jun
  114. Will Israel withdraw from Lebanon by ...?: December 3192%Wed 30 Jun
  115. Eredivisie: 2026-27 Winner: PSV Eindhoven47%Sun 1 Aug
  116. Next Mayor of České Budějovice: Dagmar Škodová Parmová76%Wed 30 Jun
  117. Will "Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: Yes92%Mon 21 Sept
  118. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro50%Sun 4 Oct
  119. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No91%Wed 4 Nov
  120. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)75%Wed 30 Sept
  121. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No94%Sat 31 Oct
  122. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  123. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)90%Thu 31 Dec
  124. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane51%Sat 31 Oct
  125. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No54%Sat 3 Oct
  126. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes52%Wed 4 Nov
  127. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen32%Fri 30 Apr
  128. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No95%Wed 18 Nov
  129. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes64%Tue 3 Nov
  130. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No65%Tue 3 Nov
  131. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms14%Sat 10 Oct
  132. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  133. Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes96%Wed 9 Dec
  134. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  135. Berlin State Election Winner: Linke64%Sun 20 Sept
  136. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  137. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro84%Thu 31 Dec
  138. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes76%Wed 4 Nov
  139. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  140. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  141. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  142. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No53%Wed 4 Nov
  143. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  144. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli92%Sun 6 Dec
  145. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  146. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic93%Thu 1 Oct
  147. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  148. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  149. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  150. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes67%Tue 3 Nov
  151. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No80%Tue 3 Nov
  152. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  153. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  154. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  155. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  156. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0%36%Wed 9 Dec
  157. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  158. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day93%Thu 31 Dec
  159. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  160. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  161. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)98%Wed 30 Sept
  162. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  163. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  164. WV-02 House Election Winner: Riley Moore (R)87%Tue 3 Nov
  165. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  166. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  167. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  168. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  169. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: Yes52%Tue 3 Nov
  170. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  171. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No86%Tue 3 Nov
  172. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  173. Fed Decision in October?: No change60%Wed 28 Oct
  174. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  175. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes93%Thu 1 Oct
  176. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  177. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers31%Sat 31 Oct
  178. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No83%Thu 31 Dec
  179. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  180. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  181. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  182. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  183. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No65%Mon 30 Nov
  184. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No96%Sun 27 Sept
  185. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  186. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 16?: No91%Wed 16 Sept
  187. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  188. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  189. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  190. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Vancouver Whitecaps FC18%Sat 19 Dec
  191. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  192. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  193. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic54%Thu 31 Dec
  194. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  195. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  196. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No94%Wed 30 Sept
  197. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes92%Wed 14 Oct
  198. 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?: Yes90%Wed 16 Sept
  199. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  200. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes54%Mon 23 Nov
  201. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes89%Wed 30 Sept
  202. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No95%Mon 2 Nov
  203. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  204. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA68%Thu 31 Dec
  205. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Los Angeles Rams11%Wed 31 Mar
  206. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  207. Trump out as President by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  208. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes72%Wed 16 Sept
  209. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202698%Fri 1 Jan
  210. Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?: Yes87%Wed 9 Dec
  211. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  212. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  213. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  214. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026?: No83%Tue 29 Sept
  215. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  216. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No74%Fri 1 Jan
  217. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes83%Wed 28 Oct
  218. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?: No100%Sun 20 Sept
  219. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No87%Sun 3 Jan
  220. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  221. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes69%Mon 30 Nov
  222. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ82%Mon 5 Oct
  223. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No71%Tue 6 Oct
  224. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  225. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  226. US recession by end of 2026?: No86%Sun 31 Jan
  227. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: No63%Fri 1 Jan
  228. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes86%Wed 14 Oct
  229. 🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨: No77%Mon 2 Nov
  230. UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion: Barcelona18%Sun 30 May
  231. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No65%Tue 13 Oct
  232. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  233. Iran full airspace closure by September 30?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  234. EPL: 2027 Champion: Arsenal54%Sun 30 May
  235. Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 100.00 USDC Base by September 21th 11:59 pm UTC: No51%Mon 21 Sept
  236. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  237. US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on September 21 2026?: Yes99%Mon 21 Sept
  238. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest domestic lifetime gross of all time?: Yes100%Sun 4 Oct
  239. Will Seth Bodnar win Montanas Senate Election?: No91%Tue 3 Nov
  240. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  241. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No87%Thu 1 Oct
  242. Will Shohei Ohtani hit at least 43 home runs in 2026?: No99%Sun 27 Sept
  243. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  244. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  245. MLB: Home Runs Leader: Kyle Schwarber84%Sun 11 Oct
  246. Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?: No68%Fri 6 Nov
  247. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes98%Sun 6 Dec
  248. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner: AfD82%Sun 20 Sept
  249. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  250. Elon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?: No97%Thu 5 Nov
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.