AHEAD OF PRINT

The year ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Tuesday, 22 September 2026
Edition of Wednesday, 22 September 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Tue 22 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a year — by Wednesday, 22 September 2027.

Politics

PAM won Morocco's Legislative election, RNI placed second

South Africa topped AFCON 2027 Qualifying Group D as Morocco's PAM party secured the parliamentary vote.

35% certain
lead market 35%next 34%1 venuesettles Sun 1 Aug

On Sunday 1 August Morocco held its Legislative elections, while earlier on Wednesday 31 march South Africa secured the top spot in AFCON 2027 Qualifying Group D. The outcomes placed the PAM party at the head of Morocco's parliament and gave South Africa the group's qualification.

The PAM party emerged as the winner of the Moroccan Legislative contest, surpassing all other competitors. RNI finished in second place, ahead of parties such as PJD and PI. The result was confirmed on the election day of 1 August.

Read the full report

World

China did not invade Taiwan in 2026

Taiwan faced no invasion, blockade or clash in 2026, while Trump and Putin met in China.

67% certain
lead market 67%next 26%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

Politics

Xavier Becerra won California governorship

Anthony Constantino captured New York's 21st congressional district and Karen Bass secured the Los Angeles mayoralty.

57% certain
lead market 57%next 43%1 venuesettles Thu 31 Dec

Science

NVIDIA acquired a stake in OpenAI

OpenAI also released the GPT-Luna model and reset Codex usage limits.

8% certain
lead market 8%next 8%1 venuesettles Tue 22 Sept

Politics

Trump signed Greenland deal on Thursday

Trump posted between 100 and 119 Truth Social messages in the week before the deal.

37% certain
lead market 37%next 25%1 venuesettles Tue 22 Sept

Culture

Monster: the Lizzie Borden Story topped global shows

The true-crime series led global rankings while a romantic comedy led US movies, and the top film fell short of its 15 million-view goal.

96% certain
lead market 96%next 2%1 venuesettles Tue 22 Sept

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No95%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  3. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  4. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party93%Tue 3 Nov
  5. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes59%Tue 1 Dec
  6. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  7. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen34%Fri 30 Apr
  8. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No61%Tue 1 Dec
  9. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep63%Tue 3 Nov
  10. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot54%Thu 31 Dec
  11. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms19%Sat 10 Oct
  12. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes90%Sun 15 Nov
  13. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  14. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  15. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No91%Sun 15 Nov
  16. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei91%Thu 31 Dec
  17. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No98%Tue 3 Nov
  18. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes96%Wed 30 Sept
  19. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party65%Tue 3 Nov
  20. NY-21 House Election Winner: Anthony Constantino (R)89%Wed 4 Nov
  21. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  22. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: Yes60%Tue 3 Nov
  23. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  24. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  25. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  26. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  27. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  28. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  29. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  30. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  31. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  32. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass57%Thu 31 Dec
  33. Next Prime Minister of Romania?: Sorin Grindeanu30%Thu 31 Dec
  34. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: Yes64%Wed 4 Nov
  35. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  36. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  37. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?: Yes95%Tue 29 Sept
  39. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  40. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  41. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  42. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  43. Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  44. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No80%Sun 1 Nov
  45. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No73%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?: Yes85%Sat 7 Nov
  47. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  48. Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026: No81%Sat 31 Oct
  49. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No76%Fri 1 Jan
  50. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes83%Sat 31 Oct
  51. Will Xavier Becerra OR Tom Steyer win the 2026 California Governor election?: Yes97%Fri 6 Nov
  52. Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  53. Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No60%Fri 1 Jan
  54. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic66%Fri 1 Jan
  55. Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?: China67%Fri 1 Jan
  56. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  57. Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  58. Will Trump and Xi meet in September 2026?: Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  59. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No71%Fri 1 Jan
  60. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  61. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  62. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 15+75%Fri 1 Jan
  63. Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  64. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo86%Sun 4 Oct
  65. US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  66. Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  67. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?: Yes69%Thu 31 Dec
  68. Will Netanyahu win the next elections in Israel?: No82%Tue 10 Nov
  69. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  70. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)83%Sun 4 Oct
  71. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes81%Fri 1 Jan
  72. Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?: Yes73%Fri 1 Jan
  73. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won: PL84%Sun 4 Oct
  74. Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?: Yes98%Thu 24 Sept
  75. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Anthropic85%Sun 1 Nov
  76. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  77. Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  78. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  79. StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  80. Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  81. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro81%Mon 5 Oct
  82. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Elmano de Freitas50%Sun 4 Oct
  83. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes80%Mon 5 Oct
  84. Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  85. Will Israel attack Iraq in September 2026?: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  86. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: OpenAI67%Wed 30 Sept
  87. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco66%Sun 4 Oct
  88. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  89. Will Trump win Nobel Piss Prize 2026? [Read description]: Yes86%Fri 16 Oct
  90. Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?: Yes82%Thu 1 Oct
  91. Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner: Pam Alexis54%Sat 26 Sept
  92. Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  93. Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?: Anthropic68%Wed 30 Sept
  94. Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in September?: No79%Wed 30 Sept
  95. Central Bank of Colombia decision in September: No change63%Wed 30 Sept
  96. Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September?: Google79%Wed 30 Sept
  97. Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September: 25 bps increase95%Tue 29 Sept
  98. Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026?: No91%Fri 25 Sept
  99. Bank of Mexico Decision in September?: No change97%Thu 24 Sept
  100. Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics?: Yes86%Sat 17 Oct
  101. Kraków Mayoral Election Winner: Łukasz Gibała74%Sun 27 Sept
  102. Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No90%Fri 30 Apr
  103. Bank of Israel Decision in October?: No Change79%Wed 21 Oct
  104. Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?: Alibaba95%Thu 1 Oct
  105. Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No92%Sat 17 Apr
  106. Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: Yes90%Sat 17 Apr
  107. Morocco Legislative Elections: Party Winner: PAM82%Sun 1 Aug
  108. Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?: No93%Sat 17 Apr
  109. Next Regional Board Chair of Skåne?: Carl Johan Sonesson86%Thu 1 Apr
  110. What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?: Why Did I Get Married Again?96%Tue 22 Sept
  111. Next Regional Board Chair of Sörmland?: Urban Granström72%Thu 1 Apr
  112. Donald Trump # Truth Social posts September 15 - September 22, 2026?: 100-11937%Tue 22 Sept
  113. Next Regional Board Chair of Gävleborg?: Eva Lindberg91%Thu 1 Apr
  114. Swiss National Bank decision in September?: No Change100%Thu 24 Sept
  115. Is the Susan Collins Polling Rumour true?: Yes71%Tue 22 Sept
  116. Next Regional Board Chair of Halland?: Mikaela Waltersson78%Thu 1 Apr
  117. What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?: Crew Girl: Season 198%Tue 22 Sept
  118. Next Regional Board Chair of Östergötland?: Mattias Ottosson82%Thu 1 Apr
  119. Khamenei # posts September 15 - September 22, 2026?: <595%Tue 22 Sept
  120. Will NVDA own >1% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026?: Yes70%Wed 23 Sept
  121. Next Regional Board Chair of Västra Götaland?: My Alnebratt96%Thu 1 Apr
  122. Next Regional Board Chair of Blekinge?: Lars Markus Hildingsson82%Thu 1 Apr
  123. Next Regional Board Chair of Norrbotten?: Anders Öberg94%Thu 1 Apr
  124. Next Regional Board Chair of Västerbotten?: Peter Olofsson99%Thu 1 Apr
  125. Next Regional Board Chair of Region Kalmar?: Angelica Katsanidou86%Thu 1 Apr
  126. Next Regional Board Chair of Jönköping?: Rachel De Basso82%Thu 1 Apr
  127. NYC Mayor # posts September 15 - September 22, 2026?: 20-3995%Tue 22 Sept
  128. Next Regional Board Chair of Örebro?: Jenny Steen82%Thu 1 Apr
  129. AFCON 2027 Qualifying: Group D Winner: South Africa66%Wed 31 Mar
  130. Morocco Legislative Elections: 2nd Place: RNI35%Sun 1 Aug
  131. What will be the top global Netflix show this week?: Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story98%Tue 22 Sept
  132. What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?: Why Did I Get Married Again?97%Tue 22 Sept
  133. Next Regional Board Chair of Kronoberg?: Henrietta Modig Serrate92%Thu 1 Apr
  134. Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 15 million views this week?: No98%Tue 22 Sept
  135. What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?: The Whisper Man99%Tue 22 Sept
  136. What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?: The Seemingly Perfect Family98%Tue 22 Sept
  137. Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 24?: Yes89%Fri 25 Sept
  138. Reggio di Calabria By-Election Winner: Fabio Roscioli80%Mon 28 Sept
  139. What will be the #2 global Netflix show this week?: Crew Girl: Season 199%Tue 22 Sept
  140. Will the #1 global Netflix show have at least 20 million views this week?: No97%Tue 22 Sept
  141. Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on...?: On or prior to September 228%Tue 22 Sept
  142. Will "OpenAI" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 21?: No70%Sun 27 Sept
  143. What will be the top US Netflix show this week?: Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story98%Tue 22 Sept
  144. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro56%Sun 4 Oct
  145. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Tue 3 Nov
  146. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No92%Wed 4 Nov
  147. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No94%Sat 31 Oct
  148. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No59%Sat 3 Oct
  149. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane52%Sat 31 Oct
  150. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes56%Wed 4 Nov
  151. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes67%Tue 3 Nov
  152. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No71%Tue 3 Nov
  153. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No95%Wed 18 Nov
  154. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)97%Thu 31 Dec
  155. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  156. Fed Decision in October?: 25 bps increase52%Wed 28 Oct
  157. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3084%Thu 1 Oct
  158. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  159. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes74%Wed 4 Nov
  160. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro69%Sun 4 Oct
  161. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No60%Wed 4 Nov
  162. Opus 5.2 released in September?: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  163. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  164. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  165. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes91%Fri 2 Oct
  166. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  167. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro52%Thu 31 Dec
  168. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  169. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli91%Sun 6 Dec
  170. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  171. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  172. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic97%Thu 1 Oct
  173. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  174. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No88%Tue 3 Nov
  175. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes69%Tue 3 Nov
  176. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  177. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  178. Will The Odyssey gross more than Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the domestic box office every single day from Sept 14–30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  179. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  180. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%49%Wed 9 Dec
  181. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  182. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  183. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  184. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  185. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  186. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  187. Trump out as President by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  188. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  189. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  190. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  191. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes61%Tue 3 Nov
  192. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  193. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  194. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  195. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  196. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No87%Tue 3 Nov
  197. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No99%Wed 4 Nov
  198. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  199. Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  200. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  201. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  202. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  203. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  204. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  205. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  206. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No65%Mon 30 Nov
  207. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  208. Will Matt Gaetz become the next Governor of Florida in 2026?: No99%Thu 26 Nov
  209. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers29%Sat 31 Oct
  210. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  211. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No86%Wed 30 Sept
  212. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No73%Sun 27 Sept
  213. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  214. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Nashville SC19%Sat 19 Dec
  215. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  216. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes61%Mon 23 Nov
  217. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes92%Wed 14 Oct
  218. Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  219. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 22?: No91%Tue 22 Sept
  220. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  221. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  222. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  223. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA75%Thu 31 Dec
  224. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes86%Wed 30 Sept
  225. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No95%Mon 2 Nov
  226. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  227. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic58%Thu 31 Dec
  228. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Los Angeles Rams12%Wed 31 Mar
  229. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026?: No83%Tue 29 Sept
  230. Anthropic IPO in October?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  231. Iran full airspace closure by September 30?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  232. US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  233. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No68%Fri 1 Jan
  234. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  235. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  236. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  237. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes83%Wed 28 Oct
  238. US recession by end of 2026?: No95%Sun 31 Jan
  239. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day96%Thu 31 Dec
  240. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No72%Tue 6 Oct
  241. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: No94%Wed 30 Sept
  242. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No90%Mon 4 Jan
  243. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes90%Wed 14 Oct
  244. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes69%Mon 30 Nov
  245. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  246. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  247. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  248. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  249. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No66%Tue 13 Oct
  250. UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion: Barcelona20%Sun 30 May
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a year, then reported as though they already had.